Home › Game previews › NHL › October 2026 › Colorado Avalanche at Philadelphia Flyers

NHL · October 19, 2026

Colorado Avalanche vs Philadelphia Flyers Final — October 19, 2026

Colorado Avalanche

5-2-1

Goalie Mackenzie Blackwood Confirmed

FINAL

Philadelphia Flyers

1-6-3

Goalie Joseph Woll Confirmed

Monday, October 19 · 7:10 PM ET

COLStarting goaliesPHI

This season

Starts

.890

Sv%

.916

.882

HDSv%

.893

−0.4

GSAx

+3.8

Last season

Starts

.904

Sv%

.899

.842

HDSv%

.824

+6.8

GSAx

−5.0

COLOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)PHI

1st3.68

GF/G

3.0520th

30th5.91

PP GF/60

5.5732nd

COLDefensePHI

1st2.48

GA/G

2.969th

1st5.55

PK GA/60

8.3123rd

COLTeamPHI

1st73.8%

Pts%

59.8%10th

1st56.6%

xGF%

51.0%11th

2nd56.7%

CF%

47.7%26th

6th54.8%

HDCF%

53.7%9th

COL5-on-5PHI

2nd3.02

xGF/60

2.3623rd

6th2.32

xGA/60

2.274th

13th9.8%

Sh%

10.2%10th

1st92.2%

Sv%

90.5%15th

1st122.7

CF/60 (both)

107.531st

12th+0.09

GAx/G

−0.1523rd

3rd+0.37

GSAx/G

−0.1023rd

21st10.0%

Sh%

10.6%14th

1st91.4%

Sv%

89.1%23rd

3rd57.4%

xGF% (L20)

53.5%8th

COLSpecial teamsPHI

25th7.09

PP xG/60

8.326th

10th81.3

PP FF/60

78.414th

1st5.4

PP min/G

4.813th

6th6.95

PK xGA/60

7.037th

20th4.8

PK min/G

4.921st

COLRecent formPHI

W@ CGY 7-3Lvs TOR 3-6W@ DAL 3-2OTLvs DAL 2-3Wvs PIT 5-2

Resultsoldest to newest

L@ BOS 1-5Lvs CAR 1-4OTLvs SEA 2-3L@ DET 1-2Wvs OTT 3-1

Game by game

5-2-1

Record

1-6-3

3-1-1

Last 5

1-3-1

5-3

Over–under

2-8

—

Last 10

1-6-3

COLHome and roadseason to datePHI

3-1-1

Home record

1-2-2

2-1-0

Road record

0-4-1

4-1

Home O/U

1-4

1-2

Road O/U

1-4

Top third of the leagueMiddle thirdBottom thirdBar = league rank (full = 1st)

Injuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel

COLRest & travelPHI

3 days

Days of rest

2 days

1,576 mi2,536 km

Travel to the game

Home

+2 hclock change vs home

Time-zone change

Home

COLKey injuriesPHI

None listed

Players out or limited

Owen Tippett RWOutCam York DIRTravis Konecny RWIRTyson Foerster RWDay-to-day +1 more key player listed

About these numbers

Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.

Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.

2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.

2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.

Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.

Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.

No key players listed.

Key players only. Injury report as of October 19, 12:40 p.m. ET.

The pre-game matchup

The Avalanche (5-2-1) visited the Flyers (1-6-3) on Monday, October 19 at 7:10 PM ET.

Last season (2025-26), the Avalanche scored 3.68 goals per game (1st of 32) and allowed 2.48 (1st). The Flyers scored 3.05 goals per game (20th of 32) and allowed 2.96 (9th). The Avalanche earned 73.8% of available standings points (1st) and the Flyers 59.8% (10th).

Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Avalanche 56.6% (1st), Flyers 51.0% (11th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Avalanche 56.7% (2nd), Flyers 47.7% (26th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Avalanche 54.8% (6th), Flyers 53.7% (9th). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.

The total closed 6.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Avalanche -245, Flyers +200) prices the Avalanche at 68% and the Flyers at 32%.

Written from the numbers available before kickoff.

Result

Final score and result vs the closing line

Colorado Avalanche 2, Philadelphia Flyers 3

Philadelphia Flyers won by 1.

Against the closing spread (Philadelphia Flyers +1.5): Philadelphia Flyers covered.
Combined score 5 vs the closing total of 6.5: Under.
Philadelphia Flyers closed at +200 on the moneyline (a 32% no-vig market-implied chance).

Actual result

Final

Colorado Avalanche 2
Philadelphia Flyers 3

Decided

In regulation

Philadelphia Flyers won

Lead changes

Before the game: market and G&W

68%Market at the close32%

Colorado AvalanchePhiladelphia Flyers

65%Market at the open35%

From open to close the market moved 3 points toward Colorado Avalanche.

The G&W pregame win probability for this game is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.

Win probability

Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Colorado Avalanche 68%, Philadelphia Flyers 32%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.

Biggest swings

2nd 12:23 — Philadelphia Flyers goal (0-2)Philadelphia Flyers 60% → 79% (+19 pts)
2nd 17:52 — Colorado Avalanche goal (1-2)Colorado Avalanche 18% → 36% (+18 pts)
3rd 6:34 — Philadelphia Flyers goal (1-3)Philadelphia Flyers 72% → 90% (+18 pts)

Philadelphia Flyers won after falling as low as 32% (1st 0:00).

Analytics members also see this chart starting from the G&W pregame win probability. See plans

Chance Quality Result

33%COL

Share of G&W replays won

67%PHI

2.0

Expected goals

3.1

Final score

Based on the quality of chances each team created, Philadelphia Flyers won 67% of G&W replays (Colorado Avalanche 33%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.

The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.

Game DNA

The Chance Quality Result above favoured Philadelphia Flyers. Here is where that came from.

Avalanche	Goals	Flyers
1.6	5-on-5 chancesexpected goals	1.9
0.4	Power-play chancesexpected goals	1.0
0.0	Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed	0.2
2.0	Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result	3.1
0.3	Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result	0.0
0.2	Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above	0.2
-0.3	Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots	-0.1
+0.1	Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Mackenzie Blackwood 21/24 · Joseph Woll 24/26	+0.3

Bar left: Avalanche gainedBar right: Flyers gained

How the margin was built, from Philadelphia Flyers's side:

Chances +0.8Finishing & goaltending +0.2Philadelphia Flyers by 1

The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.

The official play, graded

The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.

Official playUnder 6.5 -1222.00uWIN +2.00u

Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.

Line review

Colorado Avalanche closed as the market favourite at 68% and lost.

The line moved toward Colorado Avalanche before puck drop, and they lost.

How the G&W pregame number compared with the close, and whether the line moved toward it, is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market

Closing line and line movement

Puck lineno move

OpenFlyers +1.5 (-145)
Avalanche -1.5 (+120)

CloseFlyers +1.5 (-127)
Avalanche -1.5 (+104)

Totalno move

Open6.5 (o +109 / u -134)

Close6.5 (o +108 / u -134)

Moneyline

OpenAvalanche -214 65%
Flyers +177 35%

CloseAvalanche -245 68%
Flyers +200 32%

Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Members

G&W Line

G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics

Projected score

Spread

Total

Win %

Unlock every game with Analytics — $44.44/mo See today’s free game →

Matchup

Head-to-head

The teams have met 14 times since 2018-19: the Avalanche won 10 and the Flyers 4.

Date	Score	Line	Total
Jan 23, 2026	Flyers 7, Avalanche 3 Flyers won	Avalanche -325 underdog won	6.5 over
Dec 7, 2025	Avalanche 3, Flyers 2 Avalanche won	Avalanche -165 favorite won	6 under
Feb 2, 2025	Flyers 0, Avalanche 2 Avalanche won	Avalanche -225 favorite won	6 under
Nov 18, 2024	Avalanche 3, Flyers 2 Avalanche won	Avalanche -205 favorite won	6.5 under
Jan 20, 2024	Avalanche 7, Flyers 4 Avalanche won	Avalanche -115 favorite won	6 over

Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.

Teams