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NHL · October 23, 2026

Montréal Canadiens vs Chicago Blackhawks Final — October 23, 2026

Montréal Canadiens

4-3-2

Goalie Jacob Fowler Confirmed

FINAL

Chicago Blackhawks

3-6-0

Goalie Spencer Knight Confirmed

Friday, October 23 · 8:10 PM ET

MTLStarting goaliesCHI

This season

Starts

.901

Sv%

.888

.778

HDSv%

.853

+2.1

GSAx

−0.1

Last season

Starts

.908

Sv%

.902

.861

HDSv%

.876

+9.9

GSAx

+13.5

MTLOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)CHI

6th3.45

GF/G

2.6031st

8th8.61

PP GF/60

6.1926th

MTLDefenseCHI

18th3.12

GA/G

3.3527th

18th7.64

PK GA/60

5.852nd

MTLTeamCHI

5th64.6%

Pts%

43.9%31st

20th48.8%

xGF%

43.2%32nd

23rd48.6%

CF%

45.6%30th

24th46.4%

HDCF%

43.2%30th

MTL5-on-5CHI

10th2.61

xGF/60

2.1531st

29th2.74

xGA/60

2.8231st

1st11.3%

Sh%

9.6%16th

14th90.6%

Sv%

90.0%23rd

22nd114.3

CF/60 (both)

109.029th

6th+0.24

GAx/G

−0.0318th

5th+0.28

GSAx/G

+0.0613th

2nd12.3%

Sh%

10.0%22nd

18th89.5%

Sv%

89.6%16th

19th49.6%

xGF% (L20)

40.4%32nd

MTLSpecial teamsCHI

14th7.60

PP xG/60

6.5731st

26th72.7

PP FF/60

66.931st

11th4.8

PP min/G

4.715th

29th8.51

PK xGA/60

8.2828th

27th5.0

PK min/G

4.818th

MTLRecent formCHI

Wvs DET 1-0Wvs BUF 4-3L@ WSH 4-5Wvs BUF 4-3OTLvs SJS 3-4

Resultsoldest to newest

L@ NYI 1-4Lvs CAR 2-5Wvs PIT 5-3Wvs WPG 4-3Lvs DAL 0-4

Game by game

4-3-2

Record

3-6-0

3-1-1

Last 5

2-3-0

7-2

Over–under

—

MTLHome and roadseason to dateCHI

3-2-1

Home record

3-2-0

1-1-1

Road record

0-4-0

5-1

Home O/U

—

2-1

Road O/U

—

Top third of the leagueMiddle thirdBottom thirdBar = league rank (full = 1st)

Injuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel

MTLRest & travelCHI

3 days

Days of rest

6 days

746 mi1,201 km

Travel to the game

Home

−1 hclock change vs home

Time-zone change

Home

MTLKey injuriesCHI

Nick Suzuki COutIvan Demidov RWIRMike Matheson DDay-to-day

Players out or limited

Bowen Byram DDay-to-day

About these numbers

Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.

Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.

2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.

2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.

Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.

Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.

Key players only. Injury report as of October 23, 12:40 p.m. ET.

The pre-game matchup

The Canadiens (4-3-2) visited the Blackhawks (3-6-0) on Friday, October 23 at 8:10 PM ET.

Last season (2025-26), the Canadiens scored 3.45 goals per game (6th of 32) and allowed 3.12 (18th). The Blackhawks scored 2.60 goals per game (31st of 32) and allowed 3.35 (27th). The Canadiens earned 64.6% of available standings points (5th) and the Blackhawks 43.9% (31st).

Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Canadiens 48.8% (20th), Blackhawks 43.2% (32nd). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Canadiens 48.6% (23rd), Blackhawks 45.6% (30th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Canadiens 46.4% (24th), Blackhawks 43.2% (30th). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.

The total closed 6.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Canadiens -165, Blackhawks +135) prices the Canadiens at 59% and the Blackhawks at 41%.

Written from the numbers available before kickoff.

Result

Final score and result vs the closing line

Montréal Canadiens 4, Chicago Blackhawks 1

Montréal Canadiens won by 3.

Against the closing spread (Chicago Blackhawks +1.5): Montréal Canadiens covered.
Combined score 5 vs the closing total of 6.5: Under.
Montréal Canadiens closed at -165 on the moneyline (a 59% no-vig market-implied chance).

Actual result

Final

Montréal Canadiens 4
Chicago Blackhawks 1

Decided

In regulation

Montréal Canadiens won

Lead changes

Before the game: market and G&W

59%Market at the close41%

Montréal CanadiensChicago Blackhawks

60%Market at the open40%

From open to close the market moved 1 point toward Chicago Blackhawks.

The G&W pregame win probability for this game is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.

Win probability

Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Montréal Canadiens 59%, Chicago Blackhawks 41%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.

Biggest swings

1st 4:23 — Chicago Blackhawks goal (0-1)Chicago Blackhawks 41% → 57% (+16 pts)
1st 17:29 — Montréal Canadiens goal (1-1)Montréal Canadiens 41% → 58% (+18 pts)
2nd 7:45 — Montréal Canadiens goal (2-1)Montréal Canadiens 56% → 75% (+19 pts)

Montréal Canadiens won after falling as low as 39% (1st 12:10).

Analytics members also see this chart starting from the G&W pregame win probability. See plans

Chance Quality Result

62%MTL

Share of G&W replays won

38%CHI

2.6

Expected goals

1.9

Final score

Based on the quality of chances each team created, Montréal Canadiens won 62% of G&W replays (Chicago Blackhawks 38%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.

The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.

Game DNA

The Chance Quality Result above favoured Montréal Canadiens. Here is where that came from.

Canadiens	Goals	Blackhawks
1.8	5-on-5 chancesexpected goals	1.0
0.5	Power-play chancesexpected goals	0.8
0.3	Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed	0.1
2.6	Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result	1.9
0.5	Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above	0.1
+0.4	Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots	-0.9
+0.9	Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Jacob Fowler 20/21 · Spencer Knight 24/27	-0.4
1	Empty-net goals	0

Bar left: Canadiens gainedBar right: Blackhawks gained

How the margin was built, from Montréal Canadiens's side:

Chances +0.7Finishing & goaltending +1.3Empty net +1Montréal Canadiens by 3

The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.

Line review

Montréal Canadiens closed as the market favourite at 59% and won.

How the G&W pregame number compared with the close, and whether the line moved toward it, is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market

Closing line and line movement

Puck lineno move

OpenBlackhawks +1.5 (-187)
Canadiens -1.5 (+154)

CloseBlackhawks +1.5 (-185)
Canadiens -1.5 (+149)

Totalno move

Open6.5 (o +110 / u -132)

Close6.5 (o -102 / u -120)

Moneyline

OpenCanadiens -168 60%
Blackhawks +140 40%

CloseCanadiens -165 59%
Blackhawks +135 41%

Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Members

G&W Line

G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics

Projected score

Spread

Total

Win %

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Matchup

Head-to-head

The teams have met 13 times since 2018-19: the Canadiens won 7 and the Blackhawks 6.

Date	Score	Line	Total
Dec 18, 2025	Blackhawks 1, Canadiens 4 Canadiens won	Canadiens -175 favorite won	5.5 under
Oct 11, 2025	Canadiens 3, Blackhawks 2 Canadiens won	Canadiens -162 favorite won	6.5 under
Apr 14, 2025	Blackhawks 4, Canadiens 3 SO Blackhawks won	Canadiens -320 underdog won	6 over
Jan 3, 2025	Canadiens 2, Blackhawks 4 Blackhawks won	Canadiens -155 underdog won	6 push
Dec 22, 2023	Canadiens 5, Blackhawks 2 Canadiens won	Blackhawks -116 underdog won	6 over

Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.

Teams