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NHL · October 25, 2026

Montréal Canadiens vs Winnipeg Jets Final — October 25, 2026

Montréal Canadiens

5-3-2

Goalie Jacob Fowler Confirmed

FINAL

Winnipeg Jets

4-3-3

Goalie Stuart Skinner Confirmed

Sunday, October 25 · 7:10 PM ET

MTLStarting goaliesWPG

This season

Starts

.911

Sv%

.911

.800

HDSv%

.815

+3.2

GSAx

+4.2

Last season

Starts

.908

Sv%

.888

.861

HDSv%

.795

+9.9

GSAx

+2.5

MTLOffense2026-27 regular season to dateWPG

10th3.40

GF/G

2.6025th

32nd3.80

PP GF/60

7.5914th

MTLDefenseWPG

24th3.50

GA/G

2.908th

16th7.26

PK GA/60

7.3917th

MTLTeamWPG

13th60.0%

Pts%

55.0%18th

7th54.8%

xGF%

44.8%26th

3rd56.8%

CF%

47.4%22nd

15th51.4%

HDCF%

37.0%27th

MTL5-on-5WPG

6th2.86

xGF/60

2.2724th

10th2.36

xGA/60

2.8125th

19th9.1%

Sh%

9.6%16th

27th88.7%

Sv%

92.8%4th

22nd110.7

CF/60 (both)

113.514th

16th−0.07

GAx/G

−0.1720th

23rd−0.33

GSAx/G

+0.406th

18th10.5%

Sh%

9.9%21st

27th87.5%

Sv%

90.6%5th

MTLSpecial teamsWPG

30th5.40

PP xG/60

6.0928th

27th59.5

PP FF/60

54.732nd

22nd4.7

PP min/G

4.430th

13th7.32

PK xGA/60

9.0128th

32nd6.6

PK min/G

4.510th

MTLRecent formWPG

Wvs BUF 4-3L@ WSH 4-5Wvs BUF 4-3OTLvs SJS 3-4W@ CHI 4-1

Resultsoldest to newest

Wvs MIN 5-2OTL@ CHI 3-4Lvs CAR 2-3L@ STL 1-2OTL@ DAL 2-3

Game by game

5-3-2

Record

4-3-3

3-1-1

Last 5

1-2-2

5-3-2

Last 10

4-3-3

7-3

Over–under

3-7

MTLHome and roadseason to dateWPG

3-2-1

Home record

2-2-1

2-1-1

Road record

2-1-2

5-1

Home O/U

2-3

2-2

Road O/U

1-4

Top third of the leagueMiddle thirdBottom thirdBar = league rank (full = 1st)

Injuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel

MTLRest & travelWPG

2 days

Days of rest

3 days

716 mi1,152 km

Travel to the game

Home

MTLKey injuriesWPG

Nick Suzuki COutIvan Demidov RWIR

Players out or limited

Josh Morrissey DIR

About these numbers

Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.

2026-27 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.

2026-27 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.

2026-27 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.

Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.

Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.

Key players only. Injury report as of October 25, 6:40 p.m. ET.

The pre-game matchup

The Canadiens (5-3-2) visited the Jets (4-3-3) on Sunday, October 25 at 7:10 PM ET.

The Canadiens score 3.40 goals per game (10th of 32) and allow 3.50 (24th). The Jets score 2.60 goals per game (25th of 32) and allow 2.90 (8th). The Canadiens earn 60.0% of available standings points (13th) and the Jets 55.0% (18th).

Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Canadiens 54.8% (7th), Jets 44.8% (26th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Canadiens 56.8% (3rd), Jets 47.4% (22nd). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Canadiens 51.4% (15th), Jets 37.0% (27th).

The total closed 5.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Canadiens -115, Jets -103) prices the Canadiens at 51% and the Jets at 49%.

Written from the numbers available before kickoff.

Result

Final score and result vs the closing line

Montréal Canadiens 2, Winnipeg Jets 1

Montréal Canadiens won by 1.

Against the closing spread (Winnipeg Jets +1.5): Winnipeg Jets covered.
Combined score 3 vs the closing total of 5.5: Under.
Montréal Canadiens closed at -115 on the moneyline (a 51% no-vig market-implied chance).

Actual result

Final

Montréal Canadiens 2
Winnipeg Jets 1

Decided

In regulation

Montréal Canadiens won

Lead changes

Before the game: market and G&W

51%Market at the close49%

Montréal CanadiensWinnipeg Jets

52%Market at the open48%

From open to close the market moved 1 point toward Winnipeg Jets.

The G&W pregame win probability for this game is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.

Win probability

Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Montréal Canadiens 51%, Winnipeg Jets 49%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.

Biggest swings

2nd 7:19 — Montréal Canadiens goal (1-0)Montréal Canadiens 51% → 71% (+20 pts)
2nd 11:04 — Montréal Canadiens goal (2-0)Montréal Canadiens 72% → 87% (+15 pts)
3rd 18:28 — Montréal Canadiens faceoffMontréal Canadiens 83% → 93% (+10 pts)

Analytics members also see this chart starting from the G&W pregame win probability. See plans

Chance Quality Result

47%MTL

Share of G&W replays won

53%WPG

2.9

Expected goals

3.2

Final score

Based on the quality of chances each team created, Winnipeg Jets won 53% of G&W replays (Montréal Canadiens 47%). The chances each team created were close to even.

The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.

Game DNA

The Chance Quality Result above had the chances close to even. Here is where each side gained and lost.

Canadiens	Goals	Jets
2.4	5-on-5 chancesexpected goals	1.8
0.0	Power-play chancesexpected goals	1.4
0.5	Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed	0.0
2.9	Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result	3.2
0.0	Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result	0.3
0.1	Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above	0.5
-0.9	Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots	-2.5
+2.5	Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Jacob Fowler 33/34 · Stuart Skinner 19/21	+0.9

Bar left: Canadiens gainedBar right: Jets gained

How the margin was built, from Montréal Canadiens's side:

Chances -0.6Finishing & goaltending +1.6Montréal Canadiens by 1

The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.

Line review

Montréal Canadiens closed as the market favourite at 51% and won.

How the G&W pregame number compared with the close, and whether the line moved toward it, is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market

Closing line and line movement

Puck lineno move

OpenJets +1.5 (-255)
Canadiens -1.5 (+200)

CloseJets +1.5 (-274)
Canadiens -1.5 (+208)

Totalno move

Open5.5 (o -135 / u +110)

Close5.5 (o -130 / u +106)

Moneyline

OpenCanadiens -119 52%
Jets -101 48%

CloseCanadiens -115 51%
Jets -103 49%

Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Members

G&W Line

G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics

Projected score

Spread

Total

Win %

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Matchup

Head-to-head

The teams have met 23 times since 2018-19: the Canadiens won 11 and the Jets 12.

Date	Score	Line	Total
Feb 4, 2026	Canadiens 5, Jets 1 Canadiens won	Jets -130 underdog won	6.5 under
Dec 3, 2025	Jets 2, Canadiens 3 SO Canadiens won	Jets -130 underdog won	6.5 under
Jan 28, 2025	Jets 4, Canadiens 1 Jets won	Jets -170 favorite won	5.5 under
Dec 14, 2024	Canadiens 2, Jets 4 Jets won	Jets -255 favorite won	6 push
Dec 18, 2023	Canadiens 3, Jets 2 OT Canadiens won	Jets -250 underdog won	6 under

Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.

Teams