Dallas Stars vs Chicago Blackhawks Final — October 17, 2026
DALStarting goaliesCHI
DALOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)CHIDALDefenseCHIDALTeamCHIDAL5-on-5CHIDALSpecial teamsCHIDALRecent formCHIDALHome and roadseason to dateCHIInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
DALRest & travelCHIDALKey injuriesCHIAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Key players only. Injury report as of October 17, 10:10 a.m. ET.
The pre-game matchup
The Stars (3-3-1) visited the Blackhawks (3-5-0) on Saturday, October 17 at 7:10 PM ET.
Last season (2025-26), the Stars scored 3.40 goals per game (8th of 32) and allowed 2.76 (2nd). The Blackhawks scored 2.60 goals per game (31st of 32) and allowed 3.35 (27th). The Stars earned 68.3% of available standings points (3rd) and the Blackhawks 43.9% (31st).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Stars 50.8% (13th), Blackhawks 43.2% (32nd). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Stars 47.5% (27th), Blackhawks 45.6% (30th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Stars 55.9% (5th), Blackhawks 43.2% (30th). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.
The total closed 5.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Stars -215, Blackhawks +178) prices the Stars at 65% and the Blackhawks at 35%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Dallas Stars 4, Chicago Blackhawks 0
Dallas Stars won by 4.
- Against the closing spread (Chicago Blackhawks +1.5): Dallas Stars covered.
- Combined score 4 vs the closing total of 5.5: Under.
- Dallas Stars closed at -215 on the moneyline (a 65% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
Chicago Blackhawks 0
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 3 points toward Dallas Stars.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Dallas Stars 65%, Chicago Blackhawks 35%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 2nd 4:58 — Dallas Stars goal (1-0)Dallas Stars 63% → 81% (+18 pts)
- 2nd 14:10 — Dallas Stars goal (2-0)Dallas Stars 81% → 93% (+12 pts)
- 3rd 1:27 — Dallas Stars goal (3-0)Dallas Stars 95% → 99% (+4 pts)
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, Dallas Stars won 66% of G&W replays (Chicago Blackhawks 34%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Dallas Stars. Here is where that came from.
| Stars | Goals | Blackhawks |
|---|---|---|
| 1.4 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 1.5 |
| 1.0 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 0.4 |
| 0.8 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.2 |
| 3.2 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 2.1 |
| 0.3 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 0.5 |
| +0.8 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | -2.0 |
| +2.0 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Jake Oettinger 19/19 · Spencer Knight 28/32 | -0.8 |
How the margin was built, from Dallas Stars's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
Line review
Dallas Stars closed as the market favourite at 65% and won.
The line moved toward Dallas Stars before puck drop, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Stars -1.5 (+130)
Stars -1.5 (+116)
Blackhawks +157 37%
Blackhawks +178 35%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 33 times since 2018-19: the Stars won 19 and the Blackhawks 14.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | Blackhawks 3, Stars 4 OT Stars won | Stars -325 favorite won | 6 over |
| Jan 1, 2026 | Stars 3, Blackhawks 4 Blackhawks won | Stars -185 underdog won | 5.5 over |
| Dec 27, 2025 | Blackhawks 4, Stars 3 SO Blackhawks won | Stars -375 underdog won | 5.5 over |
| Dec 29, 2024 | Stars 5, Blackhawks 1 Stars won | Stars -278 favorite won | 6 push |
| Nov 27, 2024 | Stars 2, Blackhawks 6 Blackhawks won | Stars -238 underdog won | 6 over |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
Dallas Stars
- Dallas Stars team stats
- New Jersey Devils 5, Dallas Stars 1 (Oct 27)
- New York Islanders 3, Dallas Stars 6 (Oct 25)
- Winnipeg Jets 2, Dallas Stars 3 (Oct 22)
Chicago Blackhawks
More NHL games on October 17, 2026
- New Jersey Devils 2, Washington Capitals 4 (Oct 17)
- Carolina Hurricanes 3, Winnipeg Jets 2 (Oct 17)
- Vancouver Canucks 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 4 (Oct 17)
- Seattle Kraken 3, Florida Panthers 8 (Oct 17)
- New York Rangers 0, Columbus Blue Jackets 1 (Oct 17)
- San Jose Sharks 3, Detroit Red Wings 4 (Oct 17)
- Buffalo Sabres 3, Montréal Canadiens 4 (Oct 17)
- Ottawa Senators 1, Philadelphia Flyers 3 (Oct 17)
- New York Islanders 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 1 (Oct 17)
- St Louis Blues 2, Nashville Predators 5 (Oct 17)
- Boston Bruins 4, Los Angeles Kings 1 (Oct 17)
- Edmonton Oilers 6, Utah Mammoth 2 (Oct 17)
- Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Vegas Golden Knights 6 (Oct 17)
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