San Jose Sharks vs Montréal Canadiens Final — October 20, 2026
SJStarting goaliesMTL
SJOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)MTLSJDefenseMTLSJTeamMTLSJ5-on-5MTLSJSpecial teamsMTLSJRecent formMTLSJHome and roadseason to dateMTLInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
SJRest & travelMTLSJKey injuriesMTLAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Key players only. Injury report as of October 20, 3:40 p.m. ET.
The pre-game matchup
The Sharks (4-4-1) visited the Canadiens (4-3-1) on Tuesday, October 20 at 7:10 PM ET.
Last season (2025-26), the Sharks scored 3.06 goals per game (18th of 32) and allowed 3.56 (30th). The Canadiens scored 3.45 goals per game (6th of 32) and allowed 3.12 (18th). The Sharks earned 52.4% of available standings points (22nd) and the Canadiens 64.6% (5th).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Sharks 47.4% (26th), Canadiens 48.8% (20th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Sharks 46.9% (28th), Canadiens 48.6% (23rd). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Sharks 54.7% (7th), Canadiens 46.4% (24th). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.
The total closed 6.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Sharks +180, Canadiens -220) prices the Sharks at 34% and the Canadiens at 66%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
San Jose Sharks 4, Montréal Canadiens 3
San Jose Sharks won by 1.
- Against the closing spread (Montréal Canadiens -1.5): San Jose Sharks covered.
- Combined score 7 vs the closing total of 6.5: Over.
- San Jose Sharks closed at +180 on the moneyline (a 34% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
Montréal Canadiens 3
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 1 point toward Montréal Canadiens.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (San Jose Sharks 34%, Montréal Canadiens 66%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 3rd 11:09 — San Jose Sharks goal (3-3)San Jose Sharks 13% → 44% (+31 pts)
- OT 1:53 — San Jose Sharks faceoffSan Jose Sharks 46% → 70% (+24 pts)
- OT 2:13 — San Jose Sharks goal (4-3)San Jose Sharks 69% → 100% (+31 pts)
San Jose Sharks won after falling as low as 4% (3rd 5:36).
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, Montréal Canadiens won 65% of G&W replays (San Jose Sharks 35%). The result went the other way from the chances each team created.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Montréal Canadiens. Here is where that came from.
| Sharks | Goals | Canadiens |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 3.6 |
| 0.3 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 0.2 |
| 0.0 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.3 |
| 2.8 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 4.1 |
| 0.2 | Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result | 0.0 |
| 0.8 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 0.4 |
| +0.9 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | -1.1 |
| +1.1 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Alex Nedeljkovic 31/34 · Jakub Dobes 26/30 | -0.9 |
How the margin was built, from San Jose Sharks's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
Line review
Montréal Canadiens closed as the market favourite at 66% and lost.
The line moved toward Montréal Canadiens before puck drop, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Sharks +1.5 (-137)
Sharks +1.5 (-137)
Canadiens -205 64%
Canadiens -220 66%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 13 times since 2018-19: the Sharks won 8 and the Canadiens 5.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | Sharks 4, Canadiens 2 Sharks won | Canadiens -160 underdog won | 6.5 under |
| Mar 3, 2026 | Canadiens 5, Sharks 7 Sharks won | Canadiens -135 underdog won | 6.5 over |
| Feb 27, 2025 | Sharks 3, Canadiens 4 OT Canadiens won | Canadiens -225 favorite won | 6 over |
| Feb 4, 2025 | Canadiens 4, Sharks 3 Canadiens won | Canadiens -178 favorite won | 6.5 over |
| Jan 11, 2024 | Sharks 3, Canadiens 2 Sharks won | Canadiens -162 underdog won | 6 under |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
San Jose Sharks
- San Jose Sharks team stats
- Buffalo Sabres 2, San Jose Sharks 0 (Oct 27)
- San Jose Sharks 4, Boston Bruins 6 (Oct 24)
- San Jose Sharks 6, Ottawa Senators 2 (Oct 22)
Montréal Canadiens
More NHL games on October 20, 2026
- Toronto Maple Leafs 6, Columbus Blue Jackets 2 (Oct 20)
- Colorado Avalanche 3, New Jersey Devils 4 (Oct 20)
- Anaheim Ducks 2, New York Islanders 3 (Oct 20)
- Los Angeles Kings 5, Washington Capitals 2 (Oct 20)
- Boston Bruins 2, Dallas Stars 3 (Oct 20)
- Winnipeg Jets 1, St Louis Blues 2 (Oct 20)
- Minnesota Wild 3, Edmonton Oilers 4 (Oct 20)
- Detroit Red Wings 3, Seattle Kraken 4 (Oct 20)
- Carolina Hurricanes 6, Vancouver Canucks 3 (Oct 20)
- Tampa Bay Lightning 6, Vegas Golden Knights 2 (Oct 20)
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