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NHL · October 23, 2026

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Colorado Avalanche Final — October 23, 2026

Tampa Bay Lightning

7-2-0

Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy Confirmed

FINAL

Colorado Avalanche

5-4-1

Goalie Mackenzie Blackwood Confirmed

Friday, October 23 · 9:10 PM ET

TBStarting goaliesCOL

This season

Starts

.897

Sv%

.888

.786

HDSv%

.917

+0.8

GSAx

−0.3

Last season

Starts

.912

Sv%

.904

.888

HDSv%

.842

+21.5

GSAx

+6.8

TBOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)COL

4th3.54

GF/G

3.681st

16th7.51

PP GF/60

5.9130th

TBDefenseCOL

3rd2.82

GA/G

2.481st

3rd6.10

PK GA/60

5.551st

TBTeamCOL

5th64.6%

Pts%

73.8%1st

5th54.2%

xGF%

56.6%1st

3rd53.3%

CF%

56.7%2nd

2nd57.9%

HDCF%

54.8%6th

TB5-on-5COL

5th2.73

xGF/60

3.022nd

5th2.30

xGA/60

2.326th

3rd11.1%

Sh%

9.8%13th

12th90.8%

Sv%

92.2%1st

26th111.8

CF/60 (both)

122.71st

10th+0.13

GAx/G

+0.0912th

12th+0.10

GSAx/G

+0.373rd

4th11.5%

Sh%

10.0%21st

10th90.2%

Sv%

91.4%1st

11th53.0%

xGF% (L20)

57.4%3rd

TBSpecial teamsCOL

13th7.62

PP xG/60

7.0925th

22nd75.7

PP FF/60

81.310th

10th4.8

PP min/G

5.41st

11th7.37

PK xGA/60

6.956th

29th5.1

PK min/G

4.820th

TBRecent formCOL

W@ NYI 5-3L@ NYR 1-4Wvs SEA 4-3Wvs VAN 4-2W@ VGK 6-2

Resultsoldest to newest

W@ DAL 3-2OTLvs DAL 2-3Wvs PIT 5-2L@ PHI 2-3L@ NJD 3-4

Game by game

7-2-0

Record

5-4-1

4-1-0

Last 5

2-2-1

4-5

Over–under

6-4

—

Last 10

5-4-1

TBHome and roadseason to dateCOL

5-0-0

Home record

3-1-1

2-2-0

Road record

2-3-0

1-4

Home O/U

4-1

3-1

Road O/U

2-3

Top third of the leagueMiddle thirdBottom thirdBar = league rank (full = 1st)

Injuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel

TBRest & travelCOL

3 days

Days of rest

3 days

608 mi979 km

Travel to the game

Home

+1 hclock change vs home

Time-zone change

Home

TBKey injuriesCOL

Anthony Cirelli CDay-to-day

Players out or limited

None listed

About these numbers

Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.

Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.

2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.

2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.

Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.

Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.

No key players listed.

Key players only. Injury report as of October 23, 12:40 p.m. ET.

The pre-game matchup

The Lightning (7-2-0) visited the Avalanche (5-4-1) on Friday, October 23 at 9:10 PM ET.

Last season (2025-26), the Lightning scored 3.54 goals per game (4th of 32) and allowed 2.82 (3rd). The Avalanche scored 3.68 goals per game (1st of 32) and allowed 2.48 (1st). The Lightning earned 64.6% of available standings points (5th) and the Avalanche 73.8% (1st).

Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Lightning 54.2% (5th), Avalanche 56.6% (1st). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Lightning 53.3% (3rd), Avalanche 56.7% (2nd). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Lightning 57.9% (2nd), Avalanche 54.8% (6th). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.

The total closed at 6.5, up from 5.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Lightning +100, Avalanche -120) prices the Lightning at 48% and the Avalanche at 52%.

Written from the numbers available before kickoff.

Result

Final score and result vs the closing line

Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Colorado Avalanche 6

Colorado Avalanche won by 3.

Against the closing spread (Colorado Avalanche -1.5): Colorado Avalanche covered.
Combined score 9 vs the closing total of 6.5: Over.
Colorado Avalanche closed at -120 on the moneyline (a 52% no-vig market-implied chance).

Actual result

Final

Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Colorado Avalanche 6

Decided

In regulation

Colorado Avalanche won

Lead changes

Before the game: market and G&W

48%Market at the close52%

Tampa Bay LightningColorado Avalanche

47%Market at the open53%

From open to close the market moved 1 point toward Tampa Bay Lightning.

The G&W pregame win probability for this game is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.

Win probability

Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Tampa Bay Lightning 48%, Colorado Avalanche 52%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.

Biggest swings

1st 1:08 — Colorado Avalanche goal (0-1)Colorado Avalanche 52% → 67% (+15 pts)
1st 5:52 — Colorado Avalanche goal (0-2)Colorado Avalanche 69% → 81% (+12 pts)
2nd 0:24 — Colorado Avalanche goal (0-3)Colorado Avalanche 84% → 93% (+9 pts)

Analytics members also see this chart starting from the G&W pregame win probability. See plans

Chance Quality Result

66%TBL

Share of G&W replays won

34%COL

3.2

Expected goals

2.0

Final score

Based on the quality of chances each team created, Tampa Bay Lightning won 66% of G&W replays (Colorado Avalanche 34%). The result went the other way from the chances each team created.

The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.

Game DNA

The Chance Quality Result above favoured Tampa Bay Lightning. Here is where that came from.

Lightning	Goals	Avalanche
2.1	5-on-5 chancesexpected goals	1.5
1.1	Power-play chancesexpected goals	0.5
0.0	Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed	0.0
3.2	Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result	2.0
0.3	Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above	0.1
-0.2	Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots	+3.0
-3.0	Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Andrei Vasilevskiy 18/23 · Mackenzie Blackwood 31/34	+0.2
0	Empty-net goals	1

Bar left: Lightning gainedBar right: Avalanche gained

How the margin was built, from Colorado Avalanche's side:

Chances -1.1Finishing & goaltending +3.1Empty net +1Colorado Avalanche by 3

The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.

Line review

Colorado Avalanche closed as the market favourite at 52% and won.

The line moved toward Tampa Bay Lightning before puck drop, and they lost.

How the G&W pregame number compared with the close, and whether the line moved toward it, is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market

Closing line and line movement

Puck lineno move

OpenAvalanche -1.5 (+187)
Lightning +1.5 (-232)

CloseAvalanche -1.5 (+195)
Lightning +1.5 (-247)

Totalup 1

Open5.5 (o -135 / u +112)

Close6.5 (o +100 / u -120)

Moneyline

OpenLightning +105 47%
Avalanche -125 53%

CloseLightning +100 48%
Avalanche -120 52%

Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Members

G&W Line

G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics

Projected score

Spread

Total

Win %

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Matchup

Head-to-head

The teams have met 14 times since 2018-19: the Lightning won 9 and the Avalanche 5.

Date	Score	Line	Total
Jan 6, 2026	Avalanche 2, Lightning 4 Lightning won	Avalanche -118 underdog won	6.5 under
Nov 4, 2025	Lightning 2, Avalanche 3 Avalanche won	Avalanche -150 favorite won	6 under
Nov 25, 2024	Avalanche 2, Lightning 8 Lightning won	Lightning -118 favorite won	6.5 over
Oct 30, 2024	Lightning 5, Avalanche 2 Lightning won	Lightning -118 favorite won	6.5 over
Feb 15, 2024	Avalanche 3, Lightning 6 Lightning won	Lightning -126 favorite won	6.5 over

Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.

Teams