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NCAAF

North Carolina Tar Heels

#49 FBS · 4-3
G&W Power Rating+4.86#49 of 138
Record4-3
Exp W%47.0%what the scoring says
Luck+10.1%winning more than the scoring says
Close W-L3-2games decided by 8 or less

Through games of Oct 27

Team stats

Scoring
For/G22.793rd of 138
Agst/G23.849th of 138
Diff/G−1.1779th of 138
Adj. Margin+8.6943rd of 138
SOS+9.23
Efficiency
Off EPA/play (raw)0.01987th of 138
Def EPA/play (raw)0.01753rd of 138
Net EPA/play (raw)+0.00266th of 138
Off SR46.9%70th of 138
Def SR48.1%86th of 138

League ranks among 138 FBS teams. Green = top third, red = bottom third. Same numbers as the NCAAF power rankings table (2026).

Schedule and results

3-2 ATS · O/U 3-2
Next up
Results, newest first

Result vs the close: against the consensus closing spread (covered / missed) and the closing total (O = over, U = under). Against-the-spread and over/under records exclude the postseason and count the 5 of 7 games with a closing line on file. Preview and Recap open the game page.

Team leaders

Passing leader · QB
Billy Edwards Jr.
121/201, 1531 YDS, 11 TD, 5 INT
Rushing leader · RB
Benjamin Hall
57 CAR, 283 YDS
Receiving leader · WR
Jordan Shipp
41 REC, 543 YDS, 2 TD

Season to date, all games.

North Carolina Tar Heels players on G&W

Against the market

League table ›

3-2 against the close · +9.5 pts

Against the close3-2avg cover margin +1.9
Beat the close by+9.5 ptsover 5 games
Against the bet-time line4-2+24.5 pts in total
Totals vs the close3-2avg +3.9 pts vs the total
Sep 19: −5.0Oct 3: +10.5Oct 10: +7.5Oct 17: +7.0Oct 24: −10.5+34.0 pts−10.5Sep 19Oct 24
Each game vs the closeRunning total vs the closeRunning total vs the bet-time line

Last 4 games: +3.6 pts a game vs the close.

Home 2Road 3
1-1Against the close2-1
+0.0Avg cover margin+3.2
2-0Over/under1-2
+14.0Total vs the close−2.8
Favorite 1Underdog 4
0-1Against the close3-1
−10.5Avg cover margin+5.0
1-0Over/under2-2
+11.5Total vs the close+2.0
G&W vs the market for the North Carolina Tar Heels, game by game, is part of Official Plays.See plans ›

Cover margin: the team's final margin plus its closing spread. Positive means they beat the number by that many points. The bet-time line is the consensus line on the morning of the bet window (Tuesday for football, game day for most other sports). The close is the consensus line just before the start. Every game uses only lines captured before it began. Regular season only.

Our record on this team

Full NCAAF archive ›

No graded official plays involving the North Carolina Tar Heels yet.

About these numbers

G&W Power Rating: how many points (goals, runs) better than an average team on a neutral field. The rank and every stat match the NCAAF power rankings table.

Exp W% is the win percentage the North Carolina Tar Heels scoring margin says they should have. Luck is actual win % minus Exp W%: positive means winning more than the scoring says, which tends to even out. Close W-L is the record in one-score games.

Closing line. The consensus spread, total and moneyline just before the game started. Each game page shows the full market for that game.