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NCAAF · October 31, 2026

Miami Hurricanes vs North Carolina Tar Heels Preview & Odds — October 31, 2026

Miami Hurricanes

6-0

Quarterback Darian Mensah

North Carolina Tar Heels

3-3

Quarterback Billy Edwards

Saturday, October 31 · 7:30 PM ET

MIAOffense2026 regular season to dateUNC

4th+0.308

EPA/play

+0.01987th

1st56.3%

Success %

46.9%70th

1st44.3

PPG

22.793rd

MIADefenseUNC

45th−0.009

EPA/play allowed

+0.01753rd

59th46.1%

Success % allowed

48.1%86th

15th16.7

Opp PPG

23.849th

MIARecent formUNC

W@ Wake Forest 33-20Wvs Central Michigan 52-3W@ Clemson 41-13Wvs Florida State 43-35Wvs Pittsburgh 52-23

Resultsoldest to newest

L@ Clemson 20-28Lvs Notre Dame 26-37W@ Pittsburgh 21-17W@ Duke 24-20Lvs Syracuse 30-31

7-0

Record

4-3

5-2

ATS

—

6-1

Over–under

—

MIAHome and roadseason to dateUNC

4-0

Home record

1-2

3-0

Road record

3-1

Home ATS

—

2-1

Road ATS

—

4-0

Home O/U

—

2-1

Road O/U

—

MIALast 10 gamesUNC

Game by game

7-0

Last 7

4-3

+236

Net points

+25

Top third of the leagueMiddle thirdBottom thirdBar = league rank (full = 1st)

Rest & travelrest and travel

MIARest & travelUNC

7 days

Days of rest

7 days

691 mi1,112 km

Travel to the game

Home

Venue

Kenan Stadium

About these numbers

2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.

Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.

Margin of each of the last 7 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.

Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.

Matchup preview

Miami (6-0) visits North Carolina (3-3) on Saturday, October 31 at 7:30 PM ET.

Miami has the 4th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 45th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, North Carolina has the 87th-ranked offense and the 53rd-ranked defense. When Miami has the ball, a 4th-ranked offense (+0.308 EPA per play) meets a 53rd-ranked defense (+0.017 allowed); when North Carolina has it, a 87th-ranked offense (+0.019) meets a 45th-ranked defense (−0.009 allowed).

By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Miami offense is at 56.3% (1st) and the North Carolina offense at 46.9% (70th). Miami scores 44.3 points per game (1st) and allows 16.7 (15th); North Carolina scores 22.7 (93rd) and allows 23.8 (49th).

Miami is 7-0 and 5-2 against the spread; its last game was a 52-23 win over Pittsburgh. North Carolina is 4-3; its last game was a 31-30 loss to Syracuse.

Miami is a 14.5-point road favorite, with North Carolina getting the points at home. The spread opened at Miami -16.5. The total is 52.5, up from 50.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the moneyline (Miami -700, North Carolina +500) prices Miami at 84% and North Carolina at 16%.

Built from public team and player data; ranks are league-wide and update daily until kickoff.

Market

Odds and line movement

Spreadmoved 2

OpenNorth Carolina +16.5 (-110)
Miami -16.5 (-110)

NowNorth Carolina +14.5 (-110)
Miami -14.5 (-110)

Totalup 2

Open50.5 (o -110 / u -110)

Now52.5 (o -110 / u -110)

Moneyline

OpenMiami -800 85%
North Carolina +550 15%

NowMiami -700 84%
North Carolina +500 16%

Consensus of US sportsbooks. The Now column updates from our odds board. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Best available prices on Oct 28

Miami -14.5+102ProphetX
North Carolina +14.5-104Novig
Over 52.5-105Hard Rock
Under 52.5+104Novig
Miami-567Kalshi
North Carolina+525Novig

Members

G&W Line

G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics

Projected score

Spread

Total

Win %

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Matchup

Players to watch

Miami

QB · Darian Mensah

Attempts204
Completion %81.4%1st
Passing yards2,15118th
Yards per attempt10.53rd
TD–INT22–1

Leading rusher (RB) · Javian Mallory

Rushing yards44483rd
Season line59 carries, 444 yds, 7 TD

Leading receiver (WR) · Malachi Toney

Receiving yards9523rd
Season line66 catches, 952 yds, 11 TD

Leading tackler (LB) · Mohamed Toure

Tackles35404th

North Carolina

QB · Billy Edwards

Attempts201
Completion %60.2%155th
Passing yards1,53098th
Yards per attempt7.6102nd
TD–INT11–5

Leading rusher (RB) · Benjamin Hall

Rushing yards283213th
Season line57 carries, 283 yds

Leading receiver (WR) · Jordan Shipp

Receiving yards54339th
Season line41 catches, 543 yds, 2 TD

Leading tackler (LB) · Derek McDonald

Tackles7110th

Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 264 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 28, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.

Success by situation

Situation	Miami	North Carolina
Early-down success rateMiami offense vs North Carolina defense	48.9%9th	46.2%113th
Early-down success rateNorth Carolina offense vs Miami defense	42.9%66th	44.9%46th
3rd-down conversion rateMiami offense vs North Carolina defense	57.1%2nd	41.5%84th
3rd-down conversion rateNorth Carolina offense vs Miami defense	35.5%34th	41.9%54th
Explosive play rateMiami offense vs North Carolina defense	9.5%9th	5.2%18th
Explosive play rateNorth Carolina offense vs Miami defense	7.6%93rd	4.5%129th
Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks	52.4%53rd-highest	54.1%35th-highest

On 3rd down Miami converts 57.1% (2nd) against a North Carolina defense allowing 41.5% (84th).

On 3rd down North Carolina converts 41.9% (54th) against a Miami defense allowing 35.5% (34th).

2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.

Coaching staff

Staff	Miami	North Carolina
Head coach	Mario Cristobal	Bill Belichick
Tenureat this school	5th season	2nd season
Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below	42–19	8–11
Career recordas an FBS head coach	104–79	8–11
Offensive coordinator	Shannon Dawson	Bobby Petrino
Defensive coordinator	Corey Hetherman	Stephen Belichick

Staff list as of October 27, 6:50 a.m. ET.

Head-to-head

The teams have met 3 times since 2021: Miami won 0 and North Carolina 3.

Date	Score	Line	Total
Oct 14, 2023	Miami 31, North Carolina 41 North Carolina won
Oct 8, 2022	North Carolina 27, Miami 24 North Carolina won
Oct 16, 2021	Miami 42, North Carolina 45 North Carolina won

Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.

Result

After the final: score vs the closing line, Drive X-Ray and the graded official play, if there was one, appear here on this same page.

Teams