Syracuse Orange vs North Carolina Tar Heels Final — October 24, 2026
SYROffense2026 regular season to dateUNC
SYRDefenseUNCSYRRecent formUNCSYRHome and roadseason to dateUNCSYRLast 10 gamesUNCRest & travelrest and travel
SYRRest & travelUNCAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 6 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Syracuse (1-4) visited North Carolina (3-2) on Saturday, October 24 at 7:30 PM ET.
Syracuse has the 66th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 66th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, North Carolina has the 94th-ranked offense and the 45th-ranked defense. When Syracuse has the ball, a 66th-ranked offense (+0.062 EPA per play) meets a 45th-ranked defense (+0.006 allowed); when North Carolina has it, a 94th-ranked offense (+0.002) meets a 66th-ranked defense (+0.058 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Syracuse offense is at 45.6% (81st) and the North Carolina offense at 44.8% (89th). Syracuse scores 24.8 points per game (74th) and allows 30.2 (102nd); North Carolina scores 21.2 (99th) and allows 22.4 (44th).
Syracuse is 2-4 and 3-3 against the spread; its last game was a 34-26 loss to Louisville. North Carolina is 4-2; its last game was a 24-20 win over Duke.
North Carolina closed as a 9.5-point favorite at home against Syracuse. The spread closed where it opened. The total closed at 49.5, up from 44.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Syracuse +288, North Carolina -367) prices Syracuse at 25% and North Carolina at 75%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Syracuse Orange 31, North Carolina Tar Heels 30
Syracuse Orange won by 1.
- Against the closing spread (North Carolina Tar Heels -9.5): Syracuse Orange covered.
- Combined score 61 vs the closing total of 49.5: Over.
- Syracuse Orange closed at +288 on the moneyline (a 25% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 1 point toward North Carolina Tar Heels.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Syracuse Orange 25%, North Carolina Tar Heels 75%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q2 15:00 — Syracuse Orange ball, 1st & 20 at SYR 47No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Angeli pass complete deep right to #2 U.Hatcher caught at UNC16, for 37 yards to the UNC16, out of bounds at UNC16 PENALTY SYR Pass Interference (…North Carolina Tar Heels 67% → 89% (+21 pts) · Drive 4 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 1:54 — Syracuse Orange ball, 2nd & 3 at UNC 3Shotgun #20 T.Hill rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UNC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:54 #40 S.Barker kick attempt failed (H: #41 J.Gregg, LS: #68 T.Schwerha)North Carolina Tar Heels 15% → 67% (+53 pts) · Drive 17 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 0:51 — North Carolina Tar Heels ball, 4th & 3 at SYR 39Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. sacked for loss of 2 yards to the SYR41 (#30 T.Adeleye), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSyracuse Orange 32% → 57% (+25 pts) · Drive 18 in Drive X-Ray
- OT — Syracuse Orange ball, 4th & 4 at UNC 25PENALTY SYR False Start (#0 D.Clement) 5 yards from UNC25 to UNC30. NO PLAYSyracuse Orange 23% → 100% (+77 pts) · Drive 21 in Drive X-Ray
- OT — North Carolina Tar Heels ball, 3rd & 3 at SYR 25Shotgun #27 J.McGill rush left for 0 yards to the SYR25 (#14 K.Johnson)North Carolina Tar Heels 60% → 88% (+28 pts) · Drive 20 in Drive X-Ray
Syracuse Orange won after falling as low as 5% (Q4 12:04).
Game DNA
| Syracuse | Points added | North Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| -8.2 | Passingdropbacks | -0.8 |
| +1.2 | Rushingdesigned runs | +4.6 |
| +8.3 | Explosive plays4 plays · 3 plays | +6.0 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| +0.2 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +0.3 |
| -1.4 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -2.1 |
| +3.5 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 3 of 4 · 2 of 4 | -4.1 |
| +3.6 | All plays | +3.9 |
The biggest single gap: red zone, worth about 7.6 points to Syracuse Orange. The final margin was 1.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
North Carolina Tar Heels closed as the market favourite at 75% and lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Syracuse +9.5 (-115)
Syracuse +9.5 (-110)
North Carolina -355 75%
North Carolina -367 75%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts64
- Completion %48.4%
- Passing yards371
- Yards per attempt5.8
- TD–INT1–4
- Rushing yards43169th
- Season line80 carries, 431 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving yards7843rd
- Season line50 catches, 784 yds, 7 TD
- Tackles42156th
- Attempts157
- Completion %59.9%159th
- Passing yards1,259126th
- Yards per attempt8.075th
- TD–INT9–5
- Rushing yards283183rd
- Season line57 carries, 283 yds
- Receiving yards44156th
- Season line33 catches, 441 yds, 1 TD
- Tackles5533rd
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 262 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 21, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Syracuse | North Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateSyracuse offense vs North Carolina defense | 40.6%101st | 47.4%121st |
| Early-down success rateNorth Carolina offense vs Syracuse defense | 42.7%61st | 42.8%77th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateSyracuse offense vs North Carolina defense | 41.6%60th | 41.3%78th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateNorth Carolina offense vs Syracuse defense | 35.7%35th | 38.6%85th |
| Explosive play rateSyracuse offense vs North Carolina defense | 8.3%30th | 4.9%15th |
| Explosive play rateNorth Carolina offense vs Syracuse defense | 8.8%124th | 4.2%130th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 52.1%56th-highest | 51.0%68th-highest |
On 3rd down Syracuse converts 41.6% (60th) against a North Carolina defense allowing 41.3% (78th).
On 3rd down North Carolina converts 38.6% (85th) against a Syracuse defense allowing 35.7% (35th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Syracuse | North Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Fran Brown | Bill Belichick |
| Tenureat this school | 3rd season | 2nd season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 15–16 | 8–10 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 15–16 | 8–10 |
| Offensive coordinator | Mike Johnson / Jeff Nixon | Bobby Petrino |
| Defensive coordinator | Vince Kehres | Stephen Belichick |
Staff list as of October 20, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 2 times since 2021: Syracuse won 0 and North Carolina 2.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2025 | North Carolina 27, Syracuse 10 North Carolina won | ||
| Oct 7, 2023 | Syracuse 7, North Carolina 40 North Carolina won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Syracuse Orange
- Syracuse Orange team stats
- SMU Mustangs at Syracuse Orange (Oct 31)
- Louisville Cardinals 34, Syracuse Orange 26 (Oct 17)
- Syracuse Orange 25, Virginia Cavaliers 28 (Oct 10)
- Syracuse Orange 42, UConn Huskies 41 (Oct 3)
North Carolina Tar Heels
More NCAAF games on October 24, 2026
- LSU Tigers 38, Auburn Tigers 17 (Oct 24)
- Texas Tech Red Raiders 24, Cincinnati Bearcats 37 (Oct 24)
- Rice Owls 49, Florida Atlantic Owls 51 (Oct 24)
- Pittsburgh Panthers 23, Miami Hurricanes 52 (Oct 24)
- Indiana Hoosiers 13, Michigan Wolverines 6 (Oct 24)
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights 14, Northwestern Wildcats 42 (Oct 24)
- California Golden Bears 20, SMU Mustangs 59 (Oct 24)
- West Virginia Mountaineers 24, TCU Horned Frogs 20 (Oct 24)
- Western Michigan Broncos 38, Toledo Rockets 45 (Oct 24)
- Miami (OH) RedHawks 28, Central Michigan Chippewas 27 (Oct 24)
- Baylor Bears 24, Kansas Jayhawks 25 (Oct 24)
- Akron Zips 20, Kent State Golden Flashes 35 (Oct 24)
- Oregon Ducks 10, Illinois Fighting Illini 21 (Oct 24)
- Texas A&M Aggies 20, Alabama Crimson Tide 31 (Oct 24)
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