North Carolina Tar Heels vs Duke Blue Devils Final — October 17, 2026
UNCOffense2026 regular season to dateDUKE
UNCDefenseDUKEUNCRecent formDUKEUNCHome and roadseason to dateDUKEUNCLast 10 gamesDUKERest & travelrest and travel
UNCRest & travelDUKEAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 5 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
North Carolina (2-2) visited Duke (3-1) on Saturday, October 17 at 3:30 PM ET.
North Carolina has the 108th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 48th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Duke has the 70th-ranked offense and the 49th-ranked defense. When North Carolina has the ball, a 108th-ranked offense (−0.042 EPA per play) meets a 49th-ranked defense (−0.001 allowed); when Duke has it, a 70th-ranked offense (+0.065) meets a 48th-ranked defense (−0.003 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the North Carolina offense is at 44.1% (93rd) and the Duke offense at 44.2% (92nd). North Carolina scores 20.5 points per game (102nd) and allows 23.0 (50th); Duke scores 27.0 (63rd) and allows 16.2 (15th).
North Carolina is 3-2; its last game was a 21-17 win over Pittsburgh. Duke is 4-1 and 4-1 against the spread; its last game was a 28-25 loss to Georgia Tech.
Duke closed as a 3-point favorite at home against North Carolina. The spread closed where it opened. The total closed at 46.5, down from 47.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (North Carolina +125, Duke -155) prices North Carolina at 42% and Duke at 58%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
North Carolina Tar Heels 24, Duke Blue Devils 20
North Carolina Tar Heels won by 4.
- Against the closing spread (Duke Blue Devils -3): North Carolina Tar Heels covered.
- Combined score 44 vs the closing total of 46.5: Under.
- North Carolina Tar Heels closed at +125 on the moneyline (a 42% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
The market barely moved from open to close.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (North Carolina Tar Heels 42%, Duke Blue Devils 58%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q4 8:47 — North Carolina Tar Heels ball, 1st & 10 at UNC 25Shotgun #0 D.June rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UNC30, End Of Play PENALTY DUKE UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#35 A.Pellicciotta) 15 yards from UNC30 to UN…Duke Blue Devils 27% → 64% (+38 pts) · Drive 17 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 8:26 — North Carolina Tar Heels ball, 1st & 10 at UNC 45Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. pass incomplete short right to #2 T.Kekahuna thrown to UNC45 QB hurried by #12 B.Davis and #55 J.ColumbusNorth Carolina Tar Heels 42% → 63% (+21 pts) · Drive 17 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 7:43 — North Carolina Tar Heels ball, 4th & 5 at 50#91 A.McCann-Gibbs rush right for 16 yards loss to the UNC34 (#10 T.Reed), TURNOVER ON DOWNSDuke Blue Devils 31% → 51% (+20 pts) · Drive 17 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 1:53 — North Carolina Tar Heels ball, 1st & 10 at DUKE 24Shotgun #27 J.McGill rush left for 24 yards gain to the DUKE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:53, 1ST DOWN #90 R.Verhoff kick attempt good (H: #93 J.Horvath, LS: #48 G.Burt)North Carolina Tar Heels 48% → 70% (+22 pts) · Drive 19 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 0:28 — Duke Blue Devils ball, 1st & 10 at UNC 38Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush left for 8 yards gain to the UNC30 (#21 K.Dopson III), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNNorth Carolina Tar Heels 58% → 85% (+27 pts) · Drive 20 in Drive X-Ray
North Carolina Tar Heels won after falling as low as 21% (Q4 3:34).
Game DNA
| North Carolina | Points added | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| +5.8 | Passingdropbacks | -1.7 |
| -0.5 | Rushingdesigned runs | -3.7 |
| +5.3 | Explosive plays2 plays · 4 plays | +11.7 |
| -6.8 | Turnovers2 giveaways · 1 giveaways | -0.3 |
| +1.0 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -1.0 |
| -1.9 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -0.5 |
| +5.6 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 2 of 4 · 1 of 4 | -3.2 |
| +8.5 | All plays | +1.3 |
The biggest single gap: red zone, worth about 8.8 points to North Carolina Tar Heels. The final margin was 4.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
Duke Blue Devils closed as the market favourite at 58% and lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
North Carolina +3 (-106)
North Carolina +3 (-112)
Duke -155 58%
Duke -155 58%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts132
- Completion %59.8%159th
- Passing yards1,068134th
- Yards per attempt8.178th
- TD–INT8–5
- Rushing yards276147th
- Season line55 carries, 276 yds
- Receiving yards36673rd
- Season line26 catches, 366 yds
- Tackles4929th
- Attempts134
- Completion %62.7%118th
- Passing yards980156th
- Yards per attempt7.3131st
- TD–INT7–1
- Rushing yards7434th
- Season line118 carries, 743 yds, 8 TD
- Receiving yards234206th
- Season line19 catches, 234 yds
- Tackles27411th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 259 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 14, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | North Carolina | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateNorth Carolina offense vs Duke defense | 42.5%78th | 42.9%63rd |
| Early-down success rateDuke offense vs North Carolina defense | 48.6%126th | 39.9%107th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateNorth Carolina offense vs Duke defense | 39.1%79th | 32.6%17th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateDuke offense vs North Carolina defense | 40.4%71st | 45.3%36th |
| Explosive play rateNorth Carolina offense vs Duke defense | 4.5%127th | 5.0%16th |
| Explosive play rateDuke offense vs North Carolina defense | 4.4%10th | 6.7%73rd |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 53.6%43rd-highest | 42.2%121st-highest |
On 3rd down North Carolina converts 39.1% (79th) against a Duke defense allowing 32.6% (17th).
On 3rd down Duke converts 45.3% (36th) against a North Carolina defense allowing 40.4% (71st).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | North Carolina | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Bill Belichick | Manny Diaz |
| Tenureat this school | 2nd season | 3rd season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 7–10 | 22–10 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 7–10 | 43–25 |
| Offensive coordinator | Bobby Petrino | Jonathan Brewer |
| Defensive coordinator | Stephen Belichick | Jonathan Patke |
Staff list as of October 13, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 5 times since 2021: North Carolina won 3 and Duke 2.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22, 2025 | Duke 32, North Carolina 25 Duke won | ||
| Sep 28, 2024 | North Carolina 20, Duke 21 Duke won | ||
| Nov 11, 2023 | Duke 45, North Carolina 47 North Carolina won | ||
| Oct 15, 2022 | North Carolina 38, Duke 35 North Carolina won | ||
| Oct 2, 2021 | Duke 7, North Carolina 38 North Carolina won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
North Carolina Tar Heels
- North Carolina Tar Heels team stats
- Miami Hurricanes at North Carolina Tar Heels (Oct 31)
- Syracuse Orange 31, North Carolina Tar Heels 30 (Oct 24)
- North Carolina Tar Heels 21, Pittsburgh Panthers 17 (Oct 10)
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish 37, North Carolina Tar Heels 26 (Oct 3)
Duke Blue Devils
More NCAAF games on October 17, 2026
- Florida Atlantic Owls 24, Army Black Knights 56 (Oct 17)
- Pittsburgh Panthers 21, Boston College Eagles 27 (Oct 17)
- Ball State Cardinals 32, Bowling Green Falcons 31 (Oct 17)
- Charleston Southern Buccaneers 0, Clemson Tigers 37 (Oct 17)
- Ohio State Buckeyes 19, Indiana Hoosiers 15 (Oct 17)
- Georgia State Panthers 22, James Madison Dukes 49 (Oct 17)
- Kansas Jayhawks 24, Kansas State Wildcats 35 (Oct 17)
- Mississippi State Bulldogs 0, LSU Tigers 31 (Oct 17)
- Northwestern Wildcats 24, Michigan State Spartans 21 (Oct 17)
- Virginia Cavaliers 13, SMU Mustangs 23 (Oct 17)
- Florida Gators 27, Texas Longhorns 24 (Oct 17)
- Cincinnati Bearcats 42, West Virginia Mountaineers 45 (Oct 17)
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights 37, Maryland Terrapins 30 (Oct 17)
- UMass Minutemen 18, Buffalo Bulls 25 (Oct 17)
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