North Carolina Tar Heels vs Pittsburgh Panthers Final — October 10, 2026
UNCOffense2026 regular season to datePITT
UNCDefensePITTUNCRecent formPITTUNCHome and roadseason to datePITTUNCLast 10 gamesPITTRest & travelrest and travel
UNCRest & travelPITTAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 5 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
North Carolina (1-2) visited Pittsburgh (4-0) on Saturday, October 10 at 12:00 PM ET.
North Carolina has the 95th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 70th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Pittsburgh has the 80th-ranked offense and the 38th-ranked defense. When North Carolina has the ball, a 95th-ranked offense (−0.016 EPA per play) meets a 38th-ranked defense (−0.034 allowed); when Pittsburgh has it, a 80th-ranked offense (+0.037) meets a 70th-ranked defense (+0.061 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the North Carolina offense is at 46.1% (76th) and the Pittsburgh offense at 42.0% (115th). North Carolina scores 20.3 points per game (98th) and allows 25.0 (59th); Pittsburgh scores 33.2 (31st) and allows 16.8 (23rd).
North Carolina is 2-2; its last game was a 37-26 loss to Notre Dame. Pittsburgh is 5-0; its last game was a 35-33 win over Virginia Tech.
Pittsburgh closed as a 3.5-point favorite at home against North Carolina. The spread closed where it opened. The total closed at 47.5, down from 48.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (North Carolina +145, Pittsburgh -177) prices North Carolina at 39% and Pittsburgh at 61%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
North Carolina Tar Heels 21, Pittsburgh Panthers 17
North Carolina Tar Heels won by 4.
- Against the closing spread (Pittsburgh Panthers -3.5): North Carolina Tar Heels covered.
- Combined score 38 vs the closing total of 47.5: Under.
- North Carolina Tar Heels closed at +145 on the moneyline (a 39% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 2 points toward Pittsburgh Panthers.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (North Carolina Tar Heels 39%, Pittsburgh Panthers 61%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q4 12:36 — North Carolina Tar Heels ball, 1st & 10 at UNC 25Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. pass complete deep right to #84 S.Easter caught at Pitt50, for 75 yards to the Pitt00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:36, 1ST DOWN #90 R.Verhoff kic…North Carolina Tar Heels 34% → 59% (+25 pts) · Drive 17 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 10:03 — Pittsburgh Panthers ball, 3rd & 4 at UNC 45Shotgun #15 H.Geriner sacked for loss of 9 yards to the Pitt46 (#5 D.Hoilette)North Carolina Tar Heels 56% → 70% (+13 pts) · Drive 18 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 6:21 — North Carolina Tar Heels ball, 3rd & 3 at UNC 30Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. pass intercepted by #21 S.Harrison at Pitt37 #21 S.Harrison return 22 yards to the UNC41 (#14 C.Sadler)Pittsburgh Panthers 28% → 49% (+22 pts) · Drive 19 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 4:14 — Pittsburgh Panthers ball, 4th & 2 at UNC 21Shotgun #15 H.Geriner pass incomplete short left to #3 C.Hicks thrown to UNC15, TURNOVER ON DOWNSNorth Carolina Tar Heels 60% → 80% (+20 pts) · Drive 20 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 1:59 — Pittsburgh Panthers ball, 4th & 2 at UNC 31No Huddle-Shotgun #11 L.Wright rush right for 1 yard gain to the UNC30 (#15 D.McDonald), TURNOVER ON DOWNS. The previous play is under automatic review - "Short…North Carolina Tar Heels 68% → 88% (+20 pts) · Drive 22 in Drive X-Ray
North Carolina Tar Heels won after falling as low as 16% (Q2 9:18).
Game DNA
| North Carolina | Points added | Pittsburgh |
|---|---|---|
| -3.1 | Passingdropbacks | +0.2 |
| -8.6 | Rushingdesigned runs | -6.5 |
| +9.9 | Explosive plays2 plays · 1 plays | +2.2 |
| -8.2 | Turnovers2 giveaways · 2 giveaways | -9.9 |
| -4.0 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -3.6 |
| -0.5 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +2.4 |
| +3.8 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 2 of 2 · 2 of 2 | +1.3 |
| -10.7 | All plays | -13.8 |
The biggest single gap: explosive plays, worth about 7.7 points to North Carolina Tar Heels. The final margin was 4.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
Pittsburgh Panthers closed as the market favourite at 61% and lost.
The line moved toward Pittsburgh Panthers before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
North Carolina +3.5 (-113)
North Carolina +3.5 (-112)
Pittsburgh -161 59%
Pittsburgh -177 61%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts106
- Completion %57.5%187th
- Passing yards819168th
- Yards per attempt7.7106th
- TD–INT6–3
- Rushing yards251130th
- Season line43 carries, 251 yds
- Receiving yards273100th
- Season line20 catches, 273 yds
- Tackles3674th
- Attempts14
- Completion %78.6%
- Passing yards105
- Yards per attempt7.5
- TD–INT1–0
- Rushing yards270110th
- Season line51 carries, 270 yds, 3 TD
- Receiving yards31572nd
- Season line15 catches, 315 yds, 3 TD
- Tackles26268th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 256 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 7, 5:35 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | North Carolina | Pittsburgh |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateNorth Carolina offense vs Pittsburgh defense | 45.2%44th | 35.1%6th |
| Early-down success ratePittsburgh offense vs North Carolina defense | 49.0%123rd | 37.1%127th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateNorth Carolina offense vs Pittsburgh defense | 37.1%92nd | 33.3%26th |
| 3rd-down conversion ratePittsburgh offense vs North Carolina defense | 39.0%64th | 40.0%75th |
| Explosive play rateNorth Carolina offense vs Pittsburgh defense | 4.0%130th | 8.8%115th |
| Explosive play ratePittsburgh offense vs North Carolina defense | 5.3%27th | 6.6%77th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 52.9%52nd-highest | 49.2%81st-highest |
On 3rd down North Carolina converts 37.1% (92nd) against a Pittsburgh defense allowing 33.3% (26th).
On 3rd down Pittsburgh converts 40.0% (75th) against a North Carolina defense allowing 39.0% (64th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | North Carolina | Pittsburgh |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Bill Belichick | Pat Narduzzi |
| Tenureat this school | 2nd season | 12th season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 6–10 | 85–61 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 6–10 | 85–61 |
| Offensive coordinator | Bobby Petrino | Kade Bell |
| Defensive coordinator | Stephen Belichick | Cory Sanders |
Staff list as of October 6, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 4 times since 2021: North Carolina won 2 and Pittsburgh 2.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2024 | Pittsburgh 34, North Carolina 24 Pittsburgh won | ||
| Sep 23, 2023 | North Carolina 41, Pittsburgh 24 North Carolina won | ||
| Oct 29, 2022 | Pittsburgh 24, North Carolina 42 North Carolina won | ||
| Nov 11, 2021 | North Carolina 23, Pittsburgh 30 Pittsburgh won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
North Carolina Tar Heels
- North Carolina Tar Heels team stats
- Miami Hurricanes at North Carolina Tar Heels (Oct 31)
- Syracuse Orange 31, North Carolina Tar Heels 30 (Oct 24)
- North Carolina Tar Heels 24, Duke Blue Devils 20 (Oct 17)
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish 37, North Carolina Tar Heels 26 (Oct 3)
Pittsburgh Panthers
More NCAAF games on October 10, 2026
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- Indiana Hoosiers 20, Nebraska Cornhuskers 17 (Oct 10)
- UCF Knights 28, Oklahoma State Cowboys 42 (Oct 10)
- Arizona Wildcats 52, West Virginia Mountaineers 31 (Oct 10)
- Ball State Cardinals 14, Northwestern Wildcats 45 (Oct 10)
- South Carolina Gamecocks 38, Florida Gators 19 (Oct 10)
- Old Dominion Monarchs 10, Appalachian State Mountaineers 3 (Oct 10)
- Rice Owls 12, East Carolina Pirates 28 (Oct 10)
- Miami (OH) RedHawks 20, UMass Minutemen 19 (Oct 10)
- Eastern Michigan Eagles 25, Akron Zips 23 (Oct 10)
- Virginia Tech Hokies 20, California Golden Bears 25 (Oct 10)
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