Boston Bruins vs Winnipeg Jets Final — October 2, 2026
Starting goalies
OffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)DefenseTeam5-on-5Special teamsInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
Rest & travelKey injuriesAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Injury report as of October 2, 6:40 a.m. ET (status and injury type only).
The pre-game matchup
The Bruins visited the Jets on Friday, October 2 at 8:10 PM ET.
Last season (2025-26), the Bruins scored 3.32 goals per game (11th of 32) and allowed 3.05 (13th). The Jets scored 2.82 goals per game (25th of 32) and allowed 3.17 (22nd). The Bruins earned 61.0% of available standings points (8th) and the Jets 50.0% (26th).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Bruins 47.1% (28th), Jets 47.5% (25th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Bruins 48.9% (19th), Jets 48.8% (22nd). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Bruins 42.5% (31st), Jets 44.6% (29th). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.
The total closed 5.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Bruins +100, Jets -120) prices the Bruins at 48% and the Jets at 52%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Boston Bruins 4, Winnipeg Jets 3
Boston Bruins won by 1.
- Against the closing spread (Winnipeg Jets -1.5): Boston Bruins covered.
- Combined score 7 vs the closing total of 5.5: Over.
- Boston Bruins closed at +100 on the moneyline (a 48% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
Winnipeg Jets 3
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 3 points toward Winnipeg Jets.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Boston Bruins 48%, Winnipeg Jets 52%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 2nd 19:52 — Winnipeg Jets goal (2-3)Winnipeg Jets 51% → 76% (+25 pts)
- 3rd 18:22 — Boston Bruins goal (3-3)Boston Bruins 8% → 49% (+42 pts)
- OT 3:21 — Boston Bruins goal (4-3)Boston Bruins 50% → 100% (+50 pts)
Boston Bruins won after falling as low as 8% (3rd 17:33).
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, Winnipeg Jets won 65% of G&W replays (Boston Bruins 35%). The result went the other way from the chances each team created.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Winnipeg Jets. Here is where that came from.
| Bruins | Goals | Jets |
|---|---|---|
| 2.2 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 1.9 |
| 0.3 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 1.6 |
| 0.0 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.1 |
| 2.5 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 3.6 |
| 0.5 | Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result | 0.4 |
| 0.4 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 0.9 |
| +1.1 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | -1.0 |
| +1.0 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Jeremy Swayman 30/33 · Stuart Skinner 26/30 | -1.1 |
How the margin was built, from Boston Bruins's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Winnipeg Jets closed as the market favourite at 52% and lost.
The line moved toward Winnipeg Jets before puck drop, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Bruins -1.5 (+200)
Bruins +1.5 (-265)
Jets -106 49%
Jets -120 52%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 14 times since 2018-19: the Bruins won 9 and the Jets 5.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2026 | Jets 1, Bruins 6 Bruins won | Bruins -140 favorite won | 6 over |
| Dec 11, 2025 | Bruins 6, Jets 3 Bruins won | Jets -152 underdog won | 6 over |
| Jan 30, 2025 | Jets 6, Bruins 2 Jets won | Jets -162 favorite won | 5.5 over |
| Dec 10, 2024 | Bruins 1, Jets 8 Jets won | Jets -135 favorite won | 5.5 over |
| Jan 22, 2024 | Jets 1, Bruins 4 Bruins won | Bruins -143 favorite won | 5.5 under |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
Boston Bruins
- Boston Bruins team stats
- Boston Bruins 1, Carolina Hurricanes 2 (Oct 27)
- San Jose Sharks 4, Boston Bruins 6 (Oct 24)
- Nashville Predators 0, Boston Bruins 6 (Oct 22)
Winnipeg Jets
- Winnipeg Jets team stats
- Florida Panthers 5, Winnipeg Jets 1 (Oct 27)
- Montréal Canadiens 2, Winnipeg Jets 1 (Oct 25)
- Winnipeg Jets 2, Dallas Stars 3 (Oct 22)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
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