Winnipeg Jets vs Dallas Stars Final — October 22, 2026
WPGStarting goaliesDAL
WPGOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)DALWPGDefenseDALWPGTeamDALWPG5-on-5DALWPGSpecial teamsDALWPGRecent formDALWPGHome and roadseason to dateDALInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
WPGRest & travelDALWPGKey injuriesDALAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Key players only. Injury report as of October 22, 12:40 p.m. ET.
The pre-game matchup
The Jets (4-3-2) visited the Stars (5-3-1) on Thursday, October 22 at 8:10 PM ET.
Last season (2025-26), the Jets scored 2.82 goals per game (25th of 32) and allowed 3.17 (22nd). The Stars scored 3.40 goals per game (8th of 32) and allowed 2.76 (2nd). The Jets earned 50.0% of available standings points (26th) and the Stars 68.3% (3rd).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Jets 47.5% (25th), Stars 50.8% (13th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Jets 48.8% (22nd), Stars 47.5% (27th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Jets 44.6% (29th), Stars 55.9% (5th). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.
The total closed 5.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Jets +165, Stars -200) prices the Jets at 36% and the Stars at 64%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Winnipeg Jets 2, Dallas Stars 3
Dallas Stars won by 1.
- Against the closing spread (Dallas Stars -1.5): Winnipeg Jets covered.
- Combined score 5 vs the closing total of 5.5: Under.
- Dallas Stars closed at -200 on the moneyline (a 64% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
Dallas Stars 3
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 1 point toward Winnipeg Jets.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Winnipeg Jets 36%, Dallas Stars 64%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 3rd 18:00 — Dallas Stars goal (2-2)Dallas Stars 11% → 55% (+44 pts)
- OT 0:35 — Winnipeg Jets missed-shotDallas Stars 25% → 54% (+29 pts)
- OT 3:47 — Dallas Stars goal (2-3)Dallas Stars 51% → 100% (+49 pts)
Dallas Stars won after falling as low as 10% (3rd 17:37).
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, Dallas Stars won 71% of G&W replays (Winnipeg Jets 29%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Dallas Stars. Here is where that came from.
| Jets | Goals | Stars |
|---|---|---|
| 0.8 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 2.5 |
| 0.7 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 0.7 |
| 0.5 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.3 |
| 2.0 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 3.5 |
| 0.3 | Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result | 0.8 |
| 0.4 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 0.1 |
| -0.3 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | -1.3 |
| +1.3 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Stuart Skinner 35/38 · Jake Oettinger 17/19 | +0.3 |
How the margin was built, from Dallas Stars's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
Line review
Dallas Stars closed as the market favourite at 64% and won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Jets +1.5 (-148)
Jets +1.5 (-166)
Stars -205 64%
Stars -200 64%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 27 times since 2018-19: the Jets won 10 and the Stars 17.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2026 | Jets 0, Stars 3 Stars won | Stars -155 favorite won | 5.5 under |
| Feb 2, 2026 | Jets 3, Stars 4 OT Stars won | Stars -155 favorite won | 5.5 over |
| Dec 9, 2025 | Stars 4, Jets 3 Stars won | Stars -148 favorite won | 6 over |
| Oct 9, 2025 | Stars 5, Jets 4 Stars won | Stars -112 favorite won | 5.5 over |
| Apr 10, 2025 | Jets 4, Stars 0 Jets won | Stars -125 underdog won | 5.5 under |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
Winnipeg Jets
- Winnipeg Jets team stats
- Florida Panthers 5, Winnipeg Jets 1 (Oct 27)
- Montréal Canadiens 2, Winnipeg Jets 1 (Oct 25)
- Winnipeg Jets 1, St Louis Blues 2 (Oct 20)
Dallas Stars
More NHL games on October 22, 2026
- Nashville Predators 0, Boston Bruins 6 (Oct 22)
- Anaheim Ducks 1, New Jersey Devils 4 (Oct 22)
- San Jose Sharks 6, Ottawa Senators 2 (Oct 22)
- Florida Panthers 0, Pittsburgh Penguins 4 (Oct 22)
- New York Rangers 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 5 (Oct 22)
- Los Angeles Kings 3, New York Islanders 2 (Oct 22)
- Vegas Golden Knights 2, St Louis Blues 6 (Oct 22)
- Minnesota Wild 1, Calgary Flames 2 (Oct 22)
- Carolina Hurricanes 5, Edmonton Oilers 6 (Oct 22)
- Utah Mammoth 3, Seattle Kraken 5 (Oct 22)
- Detroit Red Wings 5, Vancouver Canucks 2 (Oct 22)
Dig deeper
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