San Jose State Spartans vs USC Trojans Final — August 29, 2026
Rest & travelrest and travel
SJSURest & travelUSC
About these numbers
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
San José State visited USC on Saturday, August 29 at 3:00 PM ET.
USC closed as a 38.5-point favorite at home against San José State. The spread closed where it opened. The total closed 60.5, unchanged from the open.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
San Jose State Spartans 26, USC Trojans 42
USC Trojans won by 16.
- Against the closing spread (USC Trojans -38.5): San Jose State Spartans covered.
- Combined score 68 vs the closing total of 60.5: Over.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (San Jose State Spartans 1%, USC Trojans 99%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of each team's plays, USC Trojans would win >99% of the time (San Jose State Spartans <1%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured USC Trojans. Here is where that came from.
| San José State | Points added | USC |
|---|---|---|
| +1.8 | Passingdropbacks | +9.3 |
| +9.7 | Rushingdesigned runs | +4.1 |
| +4.9 | Explosive plays3 plays · 4 plays | +4.3 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 1 giveaways | +0.0 |
| -3.4 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -1.2 |
| +0.0 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -0.1 |
| -3.6 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 1 of 4 · 6 of 7 | +5.5 |
| +9.4 | All plays | +22.0 |
The biggest single gap: red zone, worth about 9.0 points to USC Trojans. The final margin was 16.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Market
Closing line and line movement
San José State +38.5 (-114)
San José State +38.5 (-114)
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 2 times since 2021: San José State won 0 and USC 2.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2023 | San José State 28, USC 56 USC won | ||
| Sep 4, 2021 | San José State 7, USC 30 USC won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
San Jose State Spartans
- San Jose State Spartans team stats
- New Mexico Lobos at San Jose State Spartans (Oct 31)
- San Jose State Spartans 13, Nevada Wolf Pack 28 (Oct 24)
- San Jose State Spartans 24, UTEP Miners 11 (Oct 17)
- Wyoming Cowboys 16, San Jose State Spartans 13 (Oct 9)
USC Trojans
- USC Trojans team stats
- Ohio State Buckeyes at USC Trojans (Oct 31)
- USC Trojans 7, Wisconsin Badgers 24 (Oct 24)
- USC Trojans 31, Penn State Nittany Lions 23 (Oct 10)
- Washington Huskies 21, USC Trojans 25 (Oct 3)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
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