USC Trojans vs Penn State Nittany Lions Final — October 10, 2026
USCOffense2026 regular season to datePSU
USCDefensePSUUSCRecent formPSUUSCHome and roadseason to datePSUUSCLast 10 gamesPSURest & travelrest and travel
USCRest & travelPSUAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 6 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
USC (5-1) visited Penn State (3-2) on Saturday, October 10 at 7:30 PM ET.
USC has the 28th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 91st-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Penn State has the 58th-ranked offense and the 30th-ranked defense. When USC has the ball, a 28th-ranked offense (+0.212 EPA per play) meets a 30th-ranked defense (−0.060 allowed); when Penn State has it, a 58th-ranked offense (+0.094) meets a 91st-ranked defense (+0.120 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the USC offense is at 50.4% (30th) and the Penn State offense at 47.4% (59th). USC scores 37.3 points per game (13th) and allows 25.5 (64th); Penn State scores 32.0 (40th) and allows 16.0 (17th).
USC is 5-1 and 1-5 against the spread; its last game was a 25-21 win over Washington. Penn State is 3-2 and 2-3 against the spread; its last game was a 34-13 loss to Northwestern.
USC closed as a 1.5-point road favorite, with Penn State getting the points at home. The spread opened at USC -2.5. The total closed at 54.5, down from 57.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (USC -110, Penn State -110) prices USC at 50% and Penn State at 50%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
USC Trojans 31, Penn State Nittany Lions 23
USC Trojans won by 8.
- Against the closing spread (Penn State Nittany Lions +1.5): USC Trojans covered.
- Combined score 54 vs the closing total of 54.5: Under.
- USC Trojans closed at -110 on the moneyline (a 50% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 5 points toward Penn State Nittany Lions.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (USC Trojans 50%, Penn State Nittany Lions 50%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 7:26 — Penn State Nittany Lions ball, 4th & 2 at USC 13No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short left to #87 A.Rappleyea caught at USC05, for 13 yards to the USC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:26, 1ST DOWN #94 R.Barker kick at…Penn State Nittany Lions 41% → 51% (+9 pts) · Drive 2 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 6:15 — USC Trojans ball, 3rd & 7 at USC 10No Huddle-Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush middle for 2 yards gain to the USC12 (#17 J.Zayas)USC Trojans 47% → 59% (+11 pts) · Drive 9 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 5:38 — Penn State Nittany Lions ball, 3rd & 7 at PSU 25No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht rush middle for 3 yards gain to the PSU28 (#8 D.Stephens II)Penn State Nittany Lions 33% → 43% (+10 pts) · Drive 13 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 11:11 — USC Trojans ball, 3rd & 10 at PSU 10No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short left to #17 K.Dixon-Wyatt caught at PSU00, for 10 yards to the PSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:11, 1ST DOWN #45 C.Chittenden…USC Trojans 70% → 80% (+10 pts) · Drive 14 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 9:44 — Penn State Nittany Lions ball, 3rd & 10 at PSU 42No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short middle to #87 A.Rappleyea caught at PSU45, for 5 yards to the PSU47 (#17 D.Bryant), 1ST DOWNUSC Trojans 80% → 90% (+10 pts) · Drive 15 in Drive X-Ray
USC Trojans won after falling as low as 36% (Q3 15:00).
Game DNA
| USC | Points added | Penn State |
|---|---|---|
| +4.4 | Passingdropbacks | -1.1 |
| -0.7 | Rushingdesigned runs | -1.5 |
| +12.0 | Explosive plays4 plays · 3 plays | +8.9 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 1 giveaways | -3.2 |
| -0.1 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +2.2 |
| -0.6 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +2.5 |
| +7.2 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 4 of 5 · 2 of 4 | +2.8 |
| +22.3 | All plays | +10.6 |
The biggest single gap: passing, worth about 5.4 points to USC Trojans. The final margin was 8.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
Penn State Nittany Lions closed as the market favourite at 50% and lost.
The line moved toward Penn State Nittany Lions before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
USC -2.5 (-115)
USC -1.5 (-105)
Penn State +112 45%
Penn State -110 50%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts191
- Completion %68.6%41st
- Passing yards1,7444th
- Yards per attempt9.134th
- TD–INT15–3
- Rushing yards49317th
- Season line95 carries, 493 yds, 3 TD
- Receiving yards37235th
- Season line25 catches, 372 yds, 3 TD
- Tackles3587th
- Attempts134
- Completion %61.9%128th
- Passing yards1,10889th
- Yards per attempt8.370th
- TD–INT10–3
- Rushing yards212173rd
- Season line45 carries, 212 yds, 2 TD
- Receiving yards34449th
- Season line12 catches, 344 yds, 2 TD
- Tackles3498th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 256 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 7, 5:35 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | USC | Penn State |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateUSC offense vs Penn State defense | 45.4%42nd | 42.8%62nd |
| Early-down success ratePenn State offense vs USC defense | 42.9%63rd | 45.8%38th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateUSC offense vs Penn State defense | 47.5%30th | 31.4%15th |
| 3rd-down conversion ratePenn State offense vs USC defense | 35.8%38th | 38.6%82nd |
| Explosive play rateUSC offense vs Penn State defense | 8.4%36th | 6.6%68th |
| Explosive play ratePenn State offense vs USC defense | 6.4%61st | 7.2%57th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 50.8%70th-highest | 50.8%71st-highest |
On 3rd down USC converts 47.5% (30th) against a Penn State defense allowing 31.4% (15th).
On 3rd down Penn State converts 38.6% (82nd) against a USC defense allowing 35.8% (38th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | USC | Penn State |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Lincoln Riley | Matt Campbell |
| Tenureat this school | 5th season | 1st season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 41–18 | 3–2 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 96–28 | 110–72 |
| Offensive coordinator | Luke Huard | Taylor Mouser |
| Defensive coordinator | Gary Patterson | D'Anton Lynn |
Staff list as of October 6, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 1 time since 2021: USC won 0 and Penn State 1.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2024 | Penn State 33, USC 30 Penn State won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
USC Trojans
- USC Trojans team stats
- Ohio State Buckeyes at USC Trojans (Oct 31)
- USC Trojans 7, Wisconsin Badgers 24 (Oct 24)
- Washington Huskies 21, USC Trojans 25 (Oct 3)
- Oregon Ducks 41, USC Trojans 27 (Sep 26)
Penn State Nittany Lions
More NCAAF games on October 10, 2026
- Tulane Green Wave 17, Army Black Knights 20 (Oct 10)
- Sacramento State Hornets 10, Bowling Green Falcons 38 (Oct 10)
- Texas A&M Aggies 6, Missouri Tigers 27 (Oct 10)
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons 38, NC State Wolfpack 14 (Oct 10)
- Indiana Hoosiers 20, Nebraska Cornhuskers 17 (Oct 10)
- UCF Knights 28, Oklahoma State Cowboys 42 (Oct 10)
- North Carolina Tar Heels 21, Pittsburgh Panthers 17 (Oct 10)
- Arizona Wildcats 52, West Virginia Mountaineers 31 (Oct 10)
- Ball State Cardinals 14, Northwestern Wildcats 45 (Oct 10)
- South Carolina Gamecocks 38, Florida Gators 19 (Oct 10)
- Old Dominion Monarchs 10, Appalachian State Mountaineers 3 (Oct 10)
- Rice Owls 12, East Carolina Pirates 28 (Oct 10)
- Miami (OH) RedHawks 20, UMass Minutemen 19 (Oct 10)
- Eastern Michigan Eagles 25, Akron Zips 23 (Oct 10)
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