USC Trojans vs Wisconsin Badgers Final — October 24, 2026
USCOffense2026 regular season to dateWIS
USCDefenseWISUSCRecent formWISUSCHome and roadseason to dateWISUSCLast 10 gamesWISRest & travelrest and travel
USCRest & travelWISAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 7 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
USC (6-1) visited Wisconsin (3-2) on Saturday, October 24 at 7:30 PM ET.
USC has the 18th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 86th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Wisconsin has the 58th-ranked offense and the 9th-ranked defense. When USC has the ball, a 18th-ranked offense (+0.239 EPA per play) meets a 9th-ranked defense (−0.123 allowed); when Wisconsin has it, a 58th-ranked offense (+0.092) meets a 86th-ranked defense (+0.118 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the USC offense is at 50.0% (31st) and the Wisconsin offense at 49.4% (42nd). USC scores 36.4 points per game (13th) and allows 25.1 (65th); Wisconsin scores 25.8 (70th) and allows 18.2 (25th).
USC is 6-1 and 2-5 against the spread; its last game was a 31-23 win over Penn State. Wisconsin is 4-2 and 3-3 against the spread; its last game was a 17-7 loss to UCLA.
USC closed as a 2.5-point road favorite, with Wisconsin getting the points at home. The spread closed where it opened. The total closed at 50.5, down from 52.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (USC -134, Wisconsin +110) prices USC at 55% and Wisconsin at 45%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
USC Trojans 7, Wisconsin Badgers 24
Wisconsin Badgers won by 17.
- Against the closing spread (Wisconsin Badgers +2.5): Wisconsin Badgers covered.
- Combined score 31 vs the closing total of 50.5: Under.
- Wisconsin Badgers closed at +110 on the moneyline (a 45% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
The market barely moved from open to close.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (USC Trojans 55%, Wisconsin Badgers 45%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 8:12 — USC Trojans ball, 3rd & 10 at USC 18No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass intercepted by #5 B.West at USC40 broken up by #2 J.Robinson #5 B.West return 23 yards to the USC17 (#4 T.Mosley)Wisconsin Badgers 50% → 60% (+9 pts) · Drive 3 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 3:54 — USC Trojans ball, 3rd & 5 at WIS 42No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass intercepted by #21 C.Skanes at WIS38 #21 C.Skanes return 27 yards to the USC35 (#14 J.Maiava)Wisconsin Badgers 52% → 66% (+14 pts) · Drive 5 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 2:00 — Wisconsin Badgers ball, 2nd & 19 at USC 20Shotgun #1 C.Joseph pass incomplete deep middle to #89 J.Harris thrown to USC00 PENALTY USC Pass Interference (#0 J.Williams) 15 yards from USC20 to USC05, 1ST D…Wisconsin Badgers 44% → 53% (+9 pts) · Drive 8 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 9:21 — Wisconsin Badgers ball, 4th & 2 at USC 16Shotgun #1 C.Joseph pass complete short right to #2 C.Brooks Jr. caught at USC18, for 16 yards to the USC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:21, 1ST DOWN #97 G.Lahm kick atte…Wisconsin Badgers 67% → 80% (+12 pts) · Drive 10 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 4:18 — USC Trojans ball, 3rd & 9 at WIS 12No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava sacked for loss of 15 yards to the WIS27 (#8 M.Posa) PENALTY USC Intentional Grounding (#14 J.Maiava)Wisconsin Badgers 75% → 83% (+8 pts) · Drive 11 in Drive X-Ray
Wisconsin Badgers won after falling as low as 38% (Q2 9:01).
Game DNA
| USC | Points added | Wisconsin |
|---|---|---|
| +3.4 | Passingdropbacks | -5.5 |
| -4.7 | Rushingdesigned runs | +3.1 |
| +0.0 | Explosive plays0 plays · 0 plays | +0.0 |
| -12.2 | Turnovers2 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| -8.6 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -4.6 |
| +1.4 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +3.0 |
| -1.8 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 1 of 3 · 2 of 4 | +4.3 |
| -22.5 | All plays | +0.4 |
The biggest single gap: turnovers, worth about 12.2 points to Wisconsin Badgers. The final margin was 17.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
USC Trojans closed as the market favourite at 55% and lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
USC -2.5 (-111)
USC -2.5 (-112)
Wisconsin +112 45%
Wisconsin +110 45%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts224
- Completion %67.9%35th
- Passing yards2,0459th
- Yards per attempt9.130th
- TD–INT18–3
- Rushing yards59523rd
- Season line114 carries, 595 yds, 4 TD
- Receiving yards40078th
- Season line27 catches, 400 yds, 4 TD
- Tackles39208th
- Attempts159
- Completion %54.7%221st
- Passing yards1,198146th
- Yards per attempt7.5110th
- TD–INT10–5
- Rushing yards333133rd
- Season line69 carries, 333 yds, 4 TD
- Receiving yards343116th
- Season line27 catches, 343 yds, 1 TD
- Tackles5070th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 262 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 21, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | USC | Wisconsin |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateUSC offense vs Wisconsin defense | 44.6%51st | 37.7%10th |
| Early-down success rateWisconsin offense vs USC defense | 43.1%71st | 46.5%28th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateUSC offense vs Wisconsin defense | 47.2%25th | 42.6%95th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateWisconsin offense vs USC defense | 32.3%13th | 44.3%37th |
| Explosive play rateUSC offense vs Wisconsin defense | 8.4%28th | 4.8%13th |
| Explosive play rateWisconsin offense vs USC defense | 6.4%55th | 7.7%40th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 51.5%64th-highest | 46.9%100th-highest |
On 3rd down USC converts 47.2% (25th) against a Wisconsin defense allowing 42.6% (95th).
On 3rd down Wisconsin converts 44.3% (37th) against a USC defense allowing 32.3% (13th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | USC | Wisconsin |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Lincoln Riley | Luke Fickell |
| Tenureat this school | 5th season | 4th season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 42–18 | 21–23 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 97–28 | 84–48 |
| Offensive coordinator | Luke Huard | Jeff Grimes |
| Defensive coordinator | Gary Patterson | Mike Tressel |
Staff list as of October 20, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 1 time since 2021: USC won 1 and Wisconsin 0.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 2024 | Wisconsin 21, USC 38 USC won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
USC Trojans
- USC Trojans team stats
- Ohio State Buckeyes at USC Trojans (Oct 31)
- USC Trojans 31, Penn State Nittany Lions 23 (Oct 10)
- Washington Huskies 21, USC Trojans 25 (Oct 3)
- Oregon Ducks 41, USC Trojans 27 (Sep 26)
Wisconsin Badgers
- Wisconsin Badgers team stats
- Wisconsin Badgers at Iowa Hawkeyes (Oct 31)
- Wisconsin Badgers 7, UCLA Bruins 17 (Oct 17)
- Michigan State Spartans 3, Wisconsin Badgers 31 (Oct 3)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NCAAF games on October 24, 2026
- LSU Tigers 38, Auburn Tigers 17 (Oct 24)
- Texas Tech Red Raiders 24, Cincinnati Bearcats 37 (Oct 24)
- Rice Owls 49, Florida Atlantic Owls 51 (Oct 24)
- Pittsburgh Panthers 23, Miami Hurricanes 52 (Oct 24)
- Indiana Hoosiers 13, Michigan Wolverines 6 (Oct 24)
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights 14, Northwestern Wildcats 42 (Oct 24)
- California Golden Bears 20, SMU Mustangs 59 (Oct 24)
- West Virginia Mountaineers 24, TCU Horned Frogs 20 (Oct 24)
- Western Michigan Broncos 38, Toledo Rockets 45 (Oct 24)
- Miami (OH) RedHawks 28, Central Michigan Chippewas 27 (Oct 24)
- Baylor Bears 24, Kansas Jayhawks 25 (Oct 24)
- Akron Zips 20, Kent State Golden Flashes 35 (Oct 24)
- Oregon Ducks 10, Illinois Fighting Illini 21 (Oct 24)
- Texas A&M Aggies 20, Alabama Crimson Tide 31 (Oct 24)
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