Colorado State Rams vs Texas State Bobcats Final — October 15, 2026
CSUOffense2026 regular season to dateTXST
CSUDefenseTXSTCSURecent formTXSTCSUHome and roadseason to dateTXSTCSULast 10 gamesTXSTRest & travelrest and travel
CSURest & travelTXSTAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 5 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Colorado State (1-3) visited Texas State (1-3) on Thursday, October 15 at 8:00 PM ET.
Colorado State has the 14th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 138th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Texas State has the 52nd-ranked offense and the 102nd-ranked defense. When Colorado State has the ball, a 14th-ranked offense (+0.274 EPA per play) meets a 102nd-ranked defense (+0.152 allowed); when Texas State has it, a 52nd-ranked offense (+0.105) meets a 138th-ranked defense (+0.434 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Colorado State offense is at 47.0% (68th) and the Texas State offense at 49.4% (44th). Colorado State scores 32.2 points per game (36th) and allows 42.2 (134th); Texas State scores 27.8 (57th) and allows 39.0 (130th).
Colorado State is 2-3 and 3-2 against the spread; its last game was a 56-26 loss to Oregon State. Texas State is 2-3 and 2-3 against the spread; its last game was a 31-29 loss to San Diego State.
Texas State closed as a 13.5-point favorite at home against Colorado State. The spread opened at Texas State -11.5. The total closed at 69.5, up from 67.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Colorado State +500, Texas State -750) prices Colorado State at 16% and Texas State at 84%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Colorado State Rams 27, Texas State Bobcats 66
Texas State Bobcats won by 39.
- Against the closing spread (Texas State Bobcats -13.5): Texas State Bobcats covered.
- Combined score 93 vs the closing total of 69.5: Over.
- Texas State Bobcats closed at -750 on the moneyline (a 84% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 6 points toward Texas State Bobcats.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Colorado State Rams 16%, Texas State Bobcats 84%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Game DNA
| Colorado State | Points added | Texas State |
|---|---|---|
| -14.8 | Passingdropbacks | +8.9 |
| +9.0 | Rushingdesigned runs | +5.7 |
| +22.6 | Explosive plays5 plays · 8 plays | +20.9 |
| +5.5 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| +0.2 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -0.4 |
| -5.9 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -1.4 |
| +4.5 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 2 of 2 · 7 of 9 | +2.7 |
| +21.0 | All plays | +36.5 |
The biggest single gap: passing, worth about 23.8 points to Texas State Bobcats. The final margin was 39.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Texas State Bobcats closed as the market favourite at 84% and won.
The line moved toward Texas State Bobcats before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Colorado State +11.5 (-114)
Colorado State +13.5 (-112)
Texas State -437 78%
Texas State -750 84%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts85
- Completion %61.2%
- Passing yards517
- Yards per attempt6.1
- TD–INT3–1
- Rushing yards40953rd
- Season line41 carries, 409 yds, 3 TD
- Receiving yards36770th
- Season line24 catches, 367 yds, 4 TD
- Tackles5121st
- Attempts138
- Completion %66.7%56th
- Passing yards1,22697th
- Yards per attempt8.942nd
- TD–INT13–5
- Rushing yards61412th
- Season line84 carries, 614 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving yards304119th
- Season line24 catches, 304 yds, 4 TD
- Tackles37148th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 259 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 14, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Colorado State | Texas State |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateColorado State offense vs Texas State defense | 39.4%111th | 44.7%87th |
| Early-down success rateTexas State offense vs Colorado State defense | 52.7%138th | 45.3%43rd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateColorado State offense vs Texas State defense | 44.0%46th | 44.0%98th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateTexas State offense vs Colorado State defense | 47.2%113th | 52.9%8th |
| Explosive play rateColorado State offense vs Texas State defense | 6.8%65th | 6.3%56th |
| Explosive play rateTexas State offense vs Colorado State defense | 9.1%126th | 8.9%21st |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 55.5%27th-highest | 41.3%123rd-highest |
On 3rd down Colorado State converts 44.0% (46th) against a Texas State defense allowing 44.0% (98th).
On 3rd down Texas State converts 52.9% (8th) against a Colorado State defense allowing 47.2% (113th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Colorado State | Texas State |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Jim Mora | G. J. Kinne |
| Tenureat this school | 1st season | 4th season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 2–3 | 25–19 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 75–56 | 25–19 |
| Offensive coordinator | Pryce Tracy | Landon Keopple |
| Defensive coordinator | Tyson Summers | Will Windham |
Staff list as of October 13, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Teams
Colorado State Rams
- Colorado State Rams team stats
- Colorado State Rams at Utah State Aggies (Oct 31)
- San Diego State Aztecs 49, Colorado State Rams 56 (Oct 24)
- Oregon State Beavers 56, Colorado State Rams 26 (Oct 3)
- Colorado State Rams 45, UTSA Roadrunners 59 (Sep 26)
Texas State Bobcats
- Texas State Bobcats team stats
- Texas State Bobcats at Boise State Broncos (Oct 31)
- Utah State Aggies 17, Texas State Bobcats 20 (Oct 24)
- Texas State Bobcats 29, San Diego State Aztecs 31 (Oct 3)
- North Texas Mean Green 35, Texas State Bobcats 49 (Sep 19)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
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