Texas State Bobcats vs San Diego State Aztecs Final — October 3, 2026
TXSTOffense2026 regular season to dateSDSU
TXSTDefenseSDSUTXSTLast 10 gamesSDSURest & travelrest and travel
TXSTRest & travelSDSUAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Margin of each of the last 4 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Texas State (1-2) visited San Diego State (0-3) on Saturday, October 3 at 10:30 PM ET.
Texas State has the 19th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 119th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, San Diego State has the 136th-ranked offense and the 93rd-ranked defense. When Texas State has the ball, a 19th-ranked offense (+0.221 EPA per play) meets a 93rd-ranked defense (+0.098 allowed); when San Diego State has it, a 136th-ranked offense (−0.370) meets a 119th-ranked defense (+0.229 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Texas State offense is at 49.4% (15th) and the San Diego State offense at 32.3% (135th). Texas State scores 27.3 points per game (67th) and allows 41.7 (130th); San Diego State scores 13.0 (126th) and allows 31.7 (100th).
Texas State closed as a 9.5-point road favorite, with San Diego State getting the points at home. The spread opened at Texas State -3.5. The total closed at 57.5, down from 60.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Texas State -380, San Diego State +295) prices Texas State at 76% and San Diego State at 24%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Texas State Bobcats 29, San Diego State Aztecs 31
San Diego State Aztecs won by 2.
- Against the closing spread (San Diego State Aztecs +9.5): San Diego State Aztecs covered.
- Combined score 60 vs the closing total of 57.5: Over.
- San Diego State Aztecs closed at +295 on the moneyline (a 24% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 15 points toward Texas State Bobcats.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Texas State Bobcats 76%, San Diego State Aztecs 24%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q3 6:45 — San Diego State Aztecs ball, 1st & 7 at TXST 7Josiah Lucas 7 Yd Run (Cooper DiLeva Kick)Texas State Bobcats 49% → 83% (+34 pts) · Drive 18 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 14:49 — Texas State Bobcats ball, 3rd & 2 at TXST 39No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson rush left for 4 yards gain to the TXST43 (#0 S.Hala), 1ST DOWNSan Diego State Aztecs 13% → 64% (+51 pts) · Drive 21 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 8:51 — Texas State Bobcats ball, 4th & 9 at SDSU 45No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass complete short left to #18 T.Stamey caught at SDSU35, for 15 yards to the SDSU30 (#24 J.Cox), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNTexas State Bobcats 38% → 60% (+22 pts) · Drive 23 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 3:49 — Texas State Bobcats ball, 4th & 2 at SDSU 2Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass complete short right to #9 A.Battle Jr caught at SDSU02, for 1 yard to the SDSU01 (#29 J.Hunter), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSan Diego State Aztecs 47% → 73% (+26 pts) · Drive 23 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 2:47 — Texas State Bobcats ball, 1st & 10 at TXST 30Cameron Cooper 32 Yd Interception Return (Cooper DiLeva Kick)San Diego State Aztecs 48% → 92% (+43 pts) · Drive 25 in Drive X-Ray
San Diego State Aztecs won after falling as low as 4% (Q2 5:40).
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of each team's plays, San Diego State Aztecs would win 54% of the time (Texas State Bobcats 46%). The chances each team created were close to even.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above had the chances close to even. Here is where each side gained and lost.
| Texas State | Points added | San Diego State |
|---|---|---|
| +3.1 | Passingdropbacks | -9.4 |
| -10.3 | Rushingdesigned runs | +2.8 |
| +18.6 | Explosive plays7 plays · 2 plays | +6.1 |
| -16.3 | Turnovers2 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| -0.8 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -2.2 |
| -1.6 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +2.3 |
| -4.7 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 1 of 4 · 2 of 4 | -3.7 |
| -11.9 | All plays | -4.2 |
The biggest single gap: turnovers, worth about 16.3 points to San Diego State Aztecs. The final margin was 2.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Texas State Bobcats closed as the market favourite at 76% and lost.
The line moved toward Texas State Bobcats before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Texas State -3.5 (-111)
Texas State -9.5 (-115)
San Diego State +143 39%
San Diego State +295 24%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts95
- Completion %68.4%48th
- Passing yards854113th
- Yards per attempt9.037th
- TD–INT10–3
- Rushing yards5374th
- Season line63 carries, 537 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving yards24790th
- Season line19 catches, 247 yds, 4 TD
- Tackles2977th
- Attempts98
- Completion %56.1%193rd
- Passing yards597197th
- Yards per attempt6.1200th
- TD–INT5–5
- Rushing yards31250th
- Season line56 carries, 312 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving yards130329th
- Season line12 catches, 130 yds, 2 TD
- Tackles397th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 241 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 2, 5:47 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Texas State | San Diego State |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateTexas State offense vs San Diego State defense | 42.5%40th | 43.0%106th |
| Early-down success rateSan Diego State offense vs Texas State defense | 38.7%60th | 31.0%132nd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateTexas State offense vs San Diego State defense | 59.4%4th | 37.8%57th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateSan Diego State offense vs Texas State defense | 52.5%128th | 28.9%119th |
| Explosive play rateTexas State offense vs San Diego State defense | 9.4%21st | 6.3%57th |
| Explosive play rateSan Diego State offense vs Texas State defense | 7.0%78th | 4.1%119th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 38.1%127th-highest | 46.5%90th-highest |
On 3rd down Texas State converts 59.4% (4th) against a San Diego State defense allowing 37.8% (57th).
On 3rd down San Diego State converts 28.9% (119th) against a Texas State defense allowing 52.5% (128th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Texas State | San Diego State |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | G. J. Kinne | Sean Lewis |
| Tenureat this school | 4th season | 3rd season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 25–18 | 13–16 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 25–18 | 37–47 |
| Offensive coordinator | Landon Keopple | Sean Lewis |
| Defensive coordinator | Will Windham | Demetrius Sumler |
Staff list as of October 2, 5:43 a.m. ET.
Teams
Texas State Bobcats
- Texas State Bobcats team stats
- Texas State Bobcats at Boise State Broncos (Oct 31)
- Utah State Aggies 17, Texas State Bobcats 20 (Oct 24)
- Colorado State Rams 27, Texas State Bobcats 66 (Oct 15)
- North Texas Mean Green 35, Texas State Bobcats 49 (Sep 19)
San Diego State Aztecs
- San Diego State Aztecs team stats
- Washington State Cougars at San Diego State Aztecs (Oct 31)
- San Diego State Aztecs 49, Colorado State Rams 56 (Oct 24)
- Fresno State Bulldogs 23, San Diego State Aztecs 26 (Oct 17)
- San Diego State Aztecs 14, Oregon State Beavers 66 (Oct 10)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NCAAF games on October 3, 2026
- Memphis Tigers 59, Charlotte 49ers 8 (Oct 3)
- Navy Midshipmen 9, Air Force Falcons 14 (Oct 3)
- UCF Knights 17, Houston Cougars 27 (Oct 3)
- West Virginia Mountaineers 42, Iowa State Cyclones 45 (Oct 3)
- Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 0, Kansas Jayhawks 55 (Oct 3)
- Michigan Wolverines 14, Minnesota Golden Gophers 20 (Oct 3)
- Alabama Crimson Tide 56, Mississippi State Bulldogs 23 (Oct 3)
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish 37, North Carolina Tar Heels 26 (Oct 3)
- Boston College Eagles 16, SMU Mustangs 25 (Oct 3)
- Syracuse Orange 42, UConn Huskies 41 (Oct 3)
- Stanford Cardinal 3, Wake Forest Demon Deacons 57 (Oct 3)
- Michigan State Spartans 3, Wisconsin Badgers 31 (Oct 3)
- Vanderbilt Commodores 14, Georgia Bulldogs 38 (Oct 3)
- Western Michigan Broncos 20, Buffalo Bulls 17 (Oct 3)
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