Utah State Aggies vs Texas State Bobcats Final — October 24, 2026
USUOffense2026 regular season to dateTXST
USUDefenseTXSTUSURecent formTXSTUSUHome and roadseason to dateTXSTUSULast 10 gamesTXSTRest & travelrest and travel
USURest & travelTXSTAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 6 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Utah State (2-3) visited Texas State (2-3) on Saturday, October 24 at 7:30 PM ET.
Utah State has the 128th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 29th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Texas State has the 27th-ranked offense and the 126th-ranked defense. When Utah State has the ball, a 128th-ranked offense (−0.126 EPA per play) meets a 126th-ranked defense (+0.224 allowed); when Texas State has it, a 27th-ranked offense (+0.199) meets a 29th-ranked defense (−0.051 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Utah State offense is at 39.8% (129th) and the Texas State offense at 52.3% (15th). Utah State scores 14.0 points per game (132nd) and allows 22.4 (44th); Texas State scores 35.4 (18th) and allows 36.6 (124th).
Utah State is 2-4 and 3-3 against the spread; its last game was a 17-16 win over Washington State. Texas State is 3-3 and 3-3 against the spread; its last game was a 66-27 win over Colorado State.
Texas State closed as a 14.5-point favorite at home against Utah State. The spread opened at Texas State -8.5. The total closed at 59.5, down from 61.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Utah State +450, Texas State -625) prices Utah State at 17% and Texas State at 83%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Utah State Aggies 17, Texas State Bobcats 20
Texas State Bobcats won by 3.
- Against the closing spread (Texas State Bobcats -14.5): Utah State Aggies covered.
- Combined score 37 vs the closing total of 59.5: Under.
- Texas State Bobcats closed at -625 on the moneyline (a 83% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 7 points toward Texas State Bobcats.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Utah State Aggies 17%, Texas State Bobcats 83%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q4 8:07 — Utah State Aggies ball, 1st & 6 at TXST 6No Huddle-Shotgun #1 A.Garcia pass complete short right to #12 K.Watson caught at TXST00, for 6 yards to the TXST00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:07 #8 J.Jacobs pass attem…Utah State Aggies 20% → 28% (+8 pts) · Drive 18 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 4:34 — Texas State Bobcats ball, 3rd & 13 at TXST 48No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass incomplete deep right to #1 C.Dawn, Jr. thrown to USU25, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY USU Pass Interference (#15 D.Mayes) 15 yards from…Texas State Bobcats 66% → 80% (+14 pts) · Drive 19 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 1:04 — Utah State Aggies ball, 4th & 6 at USU 44No Huddle-Shotgun #9 G.Brosterhous pass complete short middle to #1 A.Garcia caught at TXST46, for 18 yards to the TXST38 (#2 T.Moore), 1ST DOWNUtah State Aggies 15% → 38% (+23 pts) · Drive 20 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 0:11 — Utah State Aggies ball, 3rd & 8 at TXST 25No Huddle-Shotgun #9 G.Brosterhous pass incomplete short right thrown to TXST19 QB hurried by #56 T.JacksonTexas State Bobcats 69% → 78% (+9 pts) · Drive 20 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 0:05 — Utah State Aggies ball, 4th & 13 at TXST 30No Huddle-Shotgun #9 G.Brosterhous pass incomplete deep right to #1 A.Garcia thrown to TXST01Texas State Bobcats 81% → 100% (+19 pts) · Drive 20 in Drive X-Ray
Game DNA
| Utah State | Points added | Texas State |
|---|---|---|
| +3.9 | Passingdropbacks | -3.1 |
| -7.1 | Rushingdesigned runs | -2.2 |
| +4.3 | Explosive plays2 plays · 2 plays | +2.4 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| +2.2 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +2.9 |
| -1.6 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +0.7 |
| -0.6 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 0 of 2 · 1 of 3 | +3.1 |
| +1.1 | All plays | +3.9 |
The biggest single gap: passing, worth about 6.9 points to Utah State Aggies. The final margin was 3.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Texas State Bobcats closed as the market favourite at 83% and won.
The line moved toward Texas State Bobcats before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Utah State +8.5 (-106)
Utah State +14.5 (-115)
Texas State -370 75%
Texas State -625 83%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts142
- Completion %54.9%220th
- Passing yards914199th
- Yards per attempt6.4206th
- TD–INT7–6
- Rushing yards39391st
- Season line70 carries, 393 yds, 2 TD
- Receiving yards47246th
- Season line36 catches, 472 yds, 5 TD
- Tackles5070th
- Attempts157
- Completion %67.5%41st
- Passing yards1,43988th
- Yards per attempt9.227th
- TD–INT14–5
- Rushing yards8382nd
- Season line108 carries, 838 yds, 5 TD
- Receiving yards348112th
- Season line29 catches, 348 yds, 4 TD
- Tackles44130th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 262 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 21, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Utah State | Texas State |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateUtah State offense vs Texas State defense | 35.4%133rd | 45.5%100th |
| Early-down success rateTexas State offense vs Utah State defense | 41.9%43rd | 47.6%18th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateUtah State offense vs Texas State defense | 32.3%117th | 41.4%79th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateTexas State offense vs Utah State defense | 42.9%97th | 56.1%4th |
| Explosive play rateUtah State offense vs Texas State defense | 6.8%72nd | 7.1%81st |
| Explosive play rateTexas State offense vs Utah State defense | 5.7%36th | 9.9%6th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 54.1%34th-highest | 39.7%126th-highest |
On 3rd down Utah State converts 32.3% (117th) against a Texas State defense allowing 41.4% (79th).
On 3rd down Texas State converts 56.1% (4th) against a Utah State defense allowing 42.9% (97th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Utah State | Texas State |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Bronco Mendenhall | G. J. Kinne |
| Tenureat this school | 2nd season | 4th season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 8–11 | 26–19 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 148–99 | 26–19 |
| Offensive coordinator | Robert Anae | Landon Keopple |
| Defensive coordinator | Nick Howell | Will Windham |
Staff list as of October 20, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Teams
Utah State Aggies
- Utah State Aggies team stats
- Colorado State Rams at Utah State Aggies (Oct 31)
- Washington State Cougars 16, Utah State Aggies 17 (Oct 9)
- Utah State Aggies 18, Boise State Broncos 37 (Oct 3)
Texas State Bobcats
- Texas State Bobcats team stats
- Texas State Bobcats at Boise State Broncos (Oct 31)
- Colorado State Rams 27, Texas State Bobcats 66 (Oct 15)
- Texas State Bobcats 29, San Diego State Aztecs 31 (Oct 3)
- North Texas Mean Green 35, Texas State Bobcats 49 (Sep 19)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NCAAF games on October 24, 2026
- LSU Tigers 38, Auburn Tigers 17 (Oct 24)
- Texas Tech Red Raiders 24, Cincinnati Bearcats 37 (Oct 24)
- Rice Owls 49, Florida Atlantic Owls 51 (Oct 24)
- Pittsburgh Panthers 23, Miami Hurricanes 52 (Oct 24)
- Indiana Hoosiers 13, Michigan Wolverines 6 (Oct 24)
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights 14, Northwestern Wildcats 42 (Oct 24)
- California Golden Bears 20, SMU Mustangs 59 (Oct 24)
- West Virginia Mountaineers 24, TCU Horned Frogs 20 (Oct 24)
- Western Michigan Broncos 38, Toledo Rockets 45 (Oct 24)
- Miami (OH) RedHawks 28, Central Michigan Chippewas 27 (Oct 24)
- Baylor Bears 24, Kansas Jayhawks 25 (Oct 24)
- Akron Zips 20, Kent State Golden Flashes 35 (Oct 24)
- Oregon Ducks 10, Illinois Fighting Illini 21 (Oct 24)
- Texas A&M Aggies 20, Alabama Crimson Tide 31 (Oct 24)
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