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NCAAF · October 28, 2026

Kennesaw State Owls vs Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Preview & Odds — October 28, 2026

Kennesaw State Owls

0-6

Quarterback Rickie Collins

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders

3-3

Quarterback Roman Gagliano

Wednesday, October 28 · 7:00 PM ET

KENNOffense2026 regular season to dateMTSU

99th−0.014

EPA/play

+0.00292nd

44th49.0%

Success %

44.6%94th

127th15.5

PPG

20.8105th

KENNDefenseMTSU

101st+0.144

EPA/play allowed

+0.08876th

108th49.7%

Success % allowed

49.2%104th

95th29.2

Opp PPG

29.898th

KENNRecent formMTSU

L@ Tennessee 9-42L@ Arkansas State 14-17Lvs Jacksonville State 26-27L@ Missouri State 21-24Lvs Liberty 6-34

Resultsoldest to newest

Wvs Nevada 27-20L@ Jacksonville State 13-23L@ Kansas 0-55Wvs Delaware 33-30W@ Florida International 26-23

1-6

Record

4-3

ATS

5-2

1-6

Over–under

3-4

KENNHome and roadseason to dateMTSU

1-3

Home record

3-0

0-3

Road record

1-3

2-2

Home ATS

3-0

2-1

Road ATS

2-2

1-3

Home O/U

1-2

0-3

Road O/U

2-2

KENNLast 10 gamesMTSU

Game by game

1-6

Last 7

4-3

-35

Net points

-30

Top third of the leagueMiddle thirdBottom thirdBar = league rank (full = 1st)

Rest & travelrest and travel

KENNRest & travelMTSU

6 days

Days of rest

8 days

162 mi261 km

Travel to the game

Home

−1 hclock change vs home

Time-zone change

Home

Venue

Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium

About these numbers

2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.

Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.

Margin of each of the last 7 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.

Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.

Matchup preview

Kennesaw State (0-6) visits Middle Tennessee (3-3) on Wednesday, October 28 at 7:00 PM ET.

Kennesaw State has the 99th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 101st-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Middle Tennessee has the 92nd-ranked offense and the 76th-ranked defense. When Kennesaw State has the ball, a 99th-ranked offense (−0.014 EPA per play) meets a 76th-ranked defense (+0.088 allowed); when Middle Tennessee has it, a 92nd-ranked offense (+0.002) meets a 101st-ranked defense (+0.144 allowed).

By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Kennesaw State offense is at 49.0% (44th) and the Middle Tennessee offense at 44.6% (94th). Kennesaw State scores 15.5 points per game (127th) and allows 29.2 (95th); Middle Tennessee scores 20.8 (105th) and allows 29.8 (98th).

Kennesaw State is 1-6 and 4-3 against the spread; its last game was a 34-6 loss to Liberty. Middle Tennessee is 4-3 and 5-2 against the spread; its last game was a 26-23 win over Florida International.

Middle Tennessee is a 2.5-point favorite at home against Kennesaw State. The spread has not moved since it opened. The total is 50.5, up from 49.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the moneyline (Kennesaw State +115, Middle Tennessee -140) prices Kennesaw State at 44% and Middle Tennessee at 56%.

Built from public team and player data; ranks are league-wide and update daily until kickoff.

Market

Odds and line movement

Spreadno move

OpenMiddle Tennessee -2.5 (-115)
Kennesaw State +2.5 (-105)

NowMiddle Tennessee -2.5 (-119)
Kennesaw State +2.5 (-101)

Totalup 1

Open49.5 (o -105 / u -115)

Now50.5 (o -110 / u -110)

Moneyline

OpenKennesaw State +129 42%
Middle Tennessee -154 58%

NowKennesaw State +115 44%
Middle Tennessee -140 56%

Consensus of US sportsbooks. The Now column updates from our odds board. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Best available prices on Oct 28

Kennesaw State +2.5+103ProphetX
Middle Tennessee -2.5-104Novig
Over 50.5+100Novig
Under 50.5-102Novig
Kennesaw State+120FanDuel
Middle Tennessee-121ProphetX

Members

G&W Line

G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics

Projected score

Spread

Total

Win %

Unlock every game with Analytics — $44.44/mo See today’s free game →

Matchup

Players to watch

Kennesaw State

QB · Rickie Collins

Attempts210
Completion %68.6%28th
Passing yards1,411124th
Yards per attempt6.7182nd
TD–INT4–5

Leading rusher (QB) · Rickie Collins

Rushing yards295204th
Season line72 carries, 295 yds, 5 TD

Leading receiver (WR) · Brayden Munroe

Receiving yards352138th
Season line22 catches, 352 yds

Leading tackler (LB) · Tywon Christopher

Tackles5485th

Middle Tennessee

QB · Roman Gagliano

Attempts215
Completion %58.6%181st
Passing yards1,404125th
Yards per attempt6.5203rd
TD–INT12–2

Leading rusher (RB) · Antonio Martin

Rushing yards48069th
Season line94 carries, 480 yds, 1 TD

Leading receiver (WR) · Cam'ron Lacy

Receiving yards43782nd
Season line41 catches, 437 yds, 4 TD

Leading tackler (LB) · Korey Smith

Tackles6622nd

Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 264 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 28, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.

Success by situation

Situation	Kennesaw State	Middle Tennessee
Early-down success rateKennesaw State offense vs Middle Tennessee defense	46.5%24th	47.8%127th
Early-down success rateMiddle Tennessee offense vs Kennesaw State defense	46.4%115th	42.8%76th
3rd-down conversion rateKennesaw State offense vs Middle Tennessee defense	35.4%102nd	40.9%76th
3rd-down conversion rateMiddle Tennessee offense vs Kennesaw State defense	44.1%100th	27.5%132nd
Explosive play rateKennesaw State offense vs Middle Tennessee defense	3.9%134th	7.4%89th
Explosive play rateMiddle Tennessee offense vs Kennesaw State defense	6.4%57th	4.9%122nd
Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks	55.4%21st-highest	55.0%23rd-highest

On 3rd down Kennesaw State converts 35.4% (102nd) against a Middle Tennessee defense allowing 40.9% (76th).

On 3rd down Middle Tennessee converts 27.5% (132nd) against a Kennesaw State defense allowing 44.1% (100th).

2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.

Coaching staff

Staff	Kennesaw State	Middle Tennessee
Head coach	Jerry Mack	Derek Mason
Tenureat this school	2nd season	3rd season
Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below	11–10	10–21
Career recordas an FBS head coach	11–10	37–76
Offensive coordinator	Mitch Militello	Anthony Scelfo
Defensive coordinator	Marc Mattioli	Brian Stewart

Staff list as of October 27, 6:50 a.m. ET.

Head-to-head

The teams have met 2 times since 2021: Kennesaw State won 1 and Middle Tennessee 1.

Date	Score	Line	Total
Sep 27, 2025	Middle Tennessee 16, Kennesaw State 24 Kennesaw State won
Oct 15, 2024	Kennesaw State 5, Middle Tennessee 14 Middle Tennessee won

Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.

Result

After the final: score vs the closing line, Drive X-Ray and the graded official play, if there was one, appear here on this same page.

Teams