Delaware Blue Hens vs Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Final — October 13, 2026
DELOffense2026 regular season to dateMTSU
DELDefenseMTSUDELRecent formMTSUDELHome and roadseason to dateMTSUDELLast 10 gamesMTSURest & travelrest and travel
DELRest & travelMTSUAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 5 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Delaware (1-3) visited Middle Tennessee (1-3) on Tuesday, October 13 at 7:00 PM ET.
Delaware has the 118th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 93rd-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Middle Tennessee has the 111th-ranked offense and the 73rd-ranked defense. When Delaware has the ball, a 118th-ranked offense (−0.100 EPA per play) meets a 73rd-ranked defense (+0.078 allowed); when Middle Tennessee has it, a 111th-ranked offense (−0.066) meets a 93rd-ranked defense (+0.128 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Delaware offense is at 39.8% (129th) and the Middle Tennessee offense at 41.8% (117th). Delaware scores 16.2 points per game (120th) and allows 30.2 (99th); Middle Tennessee scores 16.5 (117th) and allows 31.5 (107th).
Delaware is 2-3 and 3-2 against the spread; its last game was a 30-14 loss to Liberty. Middle Tennessee is 2-3 and 3-2 against the spread; its last game was a 55-0 loss to Kansas.
Delaware closed as a 1-point road favorite, with Middle Tennessee getting the points at home. The spread opened at Delaware -1.5. The total closed at 49.5, up from 48.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Delaware -115, Middle Tennessee -105) prices Delaware at 51% and Middle Tennessee at 49%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Delaware Blue Hens 30, Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 33
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders won by 3.
- Against the closing spread (Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders +1): Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders covered.
- Combined score 63 vs the closing total of 49.5: Over.
- Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders closed at -105 on the moneyline (a 49% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 1 point toward Delaware Blue Hens.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Delaware Blue Hens 51%, Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 49%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q3 14:43 — Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders ball, 1st & 10 at MTSU 20No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass complete short left to #83 K.Perdue caught at MTSU31, for 80 yards to the DELA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:43, 1ST DOWN #91 D.Bou…Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 37% → 58% (+21 pts) · Drive 15 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 5:01 — Delaware Blue Hens ball, 3rd & 7 at MTSU 33No Huddle-Shotgun #7 T.Bell pass complete deep middle to #12 J.Humes caught at MTSU13, for 33 yards to the MTSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:01, 1ST DOWN #31 T.Smack ki…Delaware Blue Hens 46% → 63% (+18 pts) · Drive 18 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 9:57 — Delaware Blue Hens ball, 2nd & 14 at MTSU 23No Huddle-Shotgun #7 T.Bell pass complete short middle to #3 K.Roberts caught at MTSU27, for 23 yards to the MTSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:57, 1ST DOWN #31 T.Smack…Delaware Blue Hens 50% → 67% (+17 pts) · Drive 22 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 3:06 — Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders ball, 2nd & 10 at DEL 14No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass complete short middle to #85 N.Clifton caught at DELA00, for 14 yards to the DELA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:06, 1ST DOWN #91 D.…Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 53% → 67% (+14 pts) · Drive 24 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 1:51 — Delaware Blue Hens ball, 2nd & 5 at DEL 42No Huddle-Shotgun #7 T.Bell pass intercepted by #30 B.Williams at MTSU40 #30 B.Williams return 30 yards to the DELA30 (#61 S.Demboski) PENALTY MTSU Illegal Block…Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 65% → 91% (+26 pts) · Drive 25 in Drive X-Ray
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders won after falling as low as 15% (Q4 9:38).
Game DNA
| Delaware | Points added | Middle Tennessee |
|---|---|---|
| -5.6 | Passingdropbacks | -0.1 |
| -1.5 | Rushingdesigned runs | -2.1 |
| +16.6 | Explosive plays6 plays · 3 plays | +9.0 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 1 giveaways | -4.6 |
| +2.1 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +5.4 |
| -3.5 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +4.5 |
| +3.1 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 3 of 4 · 3 of 3 | +6.2 |
| +11.1 | All plays | +18.3 |
The biggest single gap: penalties, worth about 8.1 points to Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders. The final margin was 3.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Delaware Blue Hens closed as the market favourite at 51% and lost.
The line moved toward Delaware Blue Hens before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Delaware -1.5 (-110)
Delaware -1 (-110)
Middle Tennessee -110 50%
Middle Tennessee -105 49%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts103
- Completion %57.3%188th
- Passing yards838188th
- Yards per attempt8.173rd
- TD–INT5–3
- Rushing yards211187th
- Season line52 carries, 211 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving yards30489th
- Season line21 catches, 304 yds, 3 TD
- Tackles4147th
- Attempts156
- Completion %56.4%199th
- Passing yards913173rd
- Yards per attempt5.8231st
- TD–INT8–1
- Rushing yards38546th
- Season line72 carries, 385 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving yards33567th
- Season line31 catches, 335 yds, 4 TD
- Tackles4720th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 259 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 11, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Delaware | Middle Tennessee |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateDelaware offense vs Middle Tennessee defense | 41.4%86th | 50.3%133rd |
| Early-down success rateMiddle Tennessee offense vs Delaware defense | 50.5%135th | 38.3%121st |
| 3rd-down conversion rateDelaware offense vs Middle Tennessee defense | 27.3%128th | 39.0%66th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateMiddle Tennessee offense vs Delaware defense | 37.8%56th | 27.7%126th |
| Explosive play rateDelaware offense vs Middle Tennessee defense | 6.5%77th | 6.7%71st |
| Explosive play rateMiddle Tennessee offense vs Delaware defense | 5.9%44th | 3.2%137th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 54.7%32nd-highest | 57.9%14th-highest |
On 3rd down Delaware converts 27.3% (128th) against a Middle Tennessee defense allowing 39.0% (66th).
On 3rd down Middle Tennessee converts 27.7% (126th) against a Delaware defense allowing 37.8% (56th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Delaware | Middle Tennessee |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Ryan Carty | Derek Mason |
| Tenureat this school | 5th season | 3rd season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 35–20 | 8–20 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 9–9 | 35–75 |
| Offensive coordinator | Terence Archer | Anthony Scelfo |
| Defensive coordinator | Manny Rojas | Brian Stewart |
Staff list as of October 13, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 1 time since 2021: Delaware won 1 and Middle Tennessee 0.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2025 | Middle Tennessee 28, Delaware 31 Delaware won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Delaware Blue Hens
- Delaware Blue Hens team stats
- Delaware Blue Hens 35, Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 21 (Oct 27)
- Missouri State Bears 38, Delaware Blue Hens 61 (Oct 20)
- Liberty Flames 30, Delaware Blue Hens 14 (Oct 2)
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
- Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders team stats
- Kennesaw State Owls at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (Oct 28)
- Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 26, Florida International Panthers 23 (Oct 20)
- Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 0, Kansas Jayhawks 55 (Oct 3)
- Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 26, Marshall Thundering Herd 28 (Sep 12)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NCAAF games on October 13, 2026
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