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NCAAF · November 4, 2026

Ball State Cardinals vs UMass Minutemen Final — November 4, 2026

Ball State Cardinals

2-5

Quarterback Keldric Luster

FINAL

UMass Minutemen

2-4

Quarterback William Watson III

Wednesday, November 4 · 7:00 PM ET

BALLOffense2026 regular season to dateMASS

69th+0.059

EPA/play

−0.034106th

57th47.9%

Success %

42.8%115th

115th19.3

PPG

23.287th

BALLDefenseMASS

124th+0.213

EPA/play allowed

−0.08020th

105th48.9%

Success % allowed

44.8%44th

132nd37.9

Opp PPG

24.255th

BALLRecent formMASS

L@ Kent State 13-26Lvs Toledo 24-39L@ Northwestern 14-45W@ Bowling Green 32-31Wvs Sacramento State 34-17

Resultsoldest to newest

W@ Sacramento State 35-6Lvs Eastern Michigan 14-38Lvs Miami (OH) 19-20L@ Buffalo 18-25L@ UConn 16-35

3-5

Record

4-4

—

ATS

4-4

—

Over–under

2-6

BALLHome and roadseason to dateMASS

2-1

Home record

2-2

1-4

Road record

2-2

—

Home ATS

2-2

—

Road ATS

2-2

—

Home O/U

1-3

—

Road O/U

1-3

BALLLast 10 gamesMASS

Game by game

3-5

Last 8

4-4

-106

Net points

+43

Top third of the leagueMiddle thirdBottom thirdBar = league rank (full = 1st)

Rest & travelrest and travel

BALLRest & travelMASS

11 days

Days of rest

12 days

684 mi1,101 km · straight-line from home arena (estimate)

Travel to the game

Home

Venue

Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium

About these numbers

2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.

Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.

Margin of each of the last 8 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.

Distance is a straight-line estimate from each team's home arena, not the team's actual itinerary; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game this season (7 = a normal week); preseason games do not count. Schedule facts only: no fatigue adjustment is applied.

The pre-game matchup

Ball State (2-5) visited Massachusetts (2-4) on Wednesday, November 4 at 7:00 PM ET.

Ball State has the 69th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 124th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Massachusetts has the 106th-ranked offense and the 20th-ranked defense. When Ball State has the ball, a 69th-ranked offense (+0.059 EPA per play) meets a 20th-ranked defense (−0.080 allowed); when Massachusetts has it, a 106th-ranked offense (−0.034) meets a 124th-ranked defense (+0.213 allowed).

By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Ball State offense is at 47.9% (57th) and the Massachusetts offense at 42.8% (115th). Ball State scores 19.3 points per game (115th) and allows 37.9 (132nd); Massachusetts scores 23.2 (87th) and allows 24.2 (55th).

Ball State is 3-5; its last game was a 34-17 win over Sacramento State. Massachusetts is 4-4 and 4-4 against the spread; its last game was a 35-16 loss to UConn.

Massachusetts closed as a 2.5-point favorite at home against Ball State. The spread opened at Massachusetts -3.5. The total closed 48.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Ball State +120, Massachusetts -143) prices Ball State at 44% and Massachusetts at 56%.

Written from the numbers available before kickoff.

Result

Final score and result vs the closing line

Ball State Cardinals 30, UMass Minutemen 31

UMass Minutemen won by 1.

Against the closing spread (UMass Minutemen -2.5): Ball State Cardinals covered.
Combined score 61 vs the closing total of 48.5: Over.
UMass Minutemen closed at -143 on the moneyline (a 56% no-vig market-implied chance).

The official play, graded

The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.

Official playUMass Minutemen ML -1701uWIN +1u

Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.

Market

Closing line and line movement

Spreadmoved 1

OpenMassachusetts -3.5 (-110)
Ball State +3.5 (-110)

CloseMassachusetts -2.5 (-115)
Ball State +2.5 (-105)

Totalno move

Open48.5 (o -110 / u -110)

Close48.5 (o -114 / u -107)

Moneyline

OpenBall State +140 40%
Massachusetts -170 60%

CloseBall State +120 44%
Massachusetts -143 56%

Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Members

G&W Line

G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics

Projected score

Spread

Total

Win %

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Matchup

Players to watch

Ball State

QB · Keldric Luster

Attempts211
Completion %63.0%105th
Passing yards1,300176th
Yards per attempt6.2223rd
TD–INT9–6

Leading rusher (RB) · TJ Horton

Rushing yards425122nd
Season line68 carries, 425 yds, 9 TD

Leading receiver (WR) · Donovan Hamilton

Receiving yards310240th
Season line25 catches, 310 yds, 1 TD

Leading tackler (LB) · Kaleb Stewart

Tackles37449th

Massachusetts

QB · William Watson III

Attempts138
Completion %69.6%18th
Passing yards1,025210th
Yards per attempt7.4120th
TD–INT8–2

Leading rusher (RB) · Elijah Faulkner

Rushing yards376153rd
Season line89 carries, 376 yds, 1 TD

Leading receiver (WR) · T.Y. Harding

Receiving yards327215th
Season line28 catches, 327 yds, 2 TD

Leading tackler (LB) · Timmy Hinspeter

Tackles7227th

Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 264 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured November 4, 5:38 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.

Success by situation

Situation	Ball State	Massachusetts
Early-down success rateBall State offense vs Massachusetts defense	43.1%65th	39.4%23rd
Early-down success rateMassachusetts offense vs Ball State defense	44.3%95th	39.2%117th
3rd-down conversion rateBall State offense vs Massachusetts defense	39.7%76th	42.3%87th
3rd-down conversion rateMassachusetts offense vs Ball State defense	45.6%111th	32.4%119th
Explosive play rateBall State offense vs Massachusetts defense	6.2%91st	5.2%20th
Explosive play rateMassachusetts offense vs Ball State defense	7.1%82nd	6.3%85th
Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks	50.1%75th-highest	50.0%78th-highest

On 3rd down Ball State converts 39.7% (76th) against a Massachusetts defense allowing 42.3% (87th).

On 3rd down Massachusetts converts 32.4% (119th) against a Ball State defense allowing 45.6% (111th).

2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.

Coaching staff

Staff	Ball State	Massachusetts
Head coach	Mike Uremovich	Joe Harasymiak
Tenureat this school	2nd season	2nd season
Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below	7–13	4–16
Career recordas an FBS head coach	7–13	4–16
Offensive coordinator	Mike Uremovich	Max Warner
Defensive coordinator	Jeff Knowles	Jared Keyte

Staff list as of November 3, 6:50 a.m. ET.

Teams