Ball State Cardinals vs Northwestern Wildcats Final — October 10, 2026
BALLOffense2026 regular season to dateNU
BALLDefenseNUBALLRecent formNUBALLHome and roadseason to dateNUBALLLast 10 gamesNURest & travelrest and travel
BALLRest & travelNUAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 5 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Ball State (0-4) visited Northwestern (2-1) on Saturday, October 10 at 12:30 PM ET.
Ball State has the 98th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 115th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Northwestern has the 8th-ranked offense and the 56th-ranked defense. When Ball State has the ball, a 98th-ranked offense (−0.032 EPA per play) meets a 56th-ranked defense (+0.030 allowed); when Northwestern has it, a 8th-ranked offense (+0.315) meets a 115th-ranked defense (+0.213 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Ball State offense is at 44.3% (92nd) and the Northwestern offense at 55.8% (6th). Ball State scores 13.8 points per game (127th) and allows 43.0 (136th); Northwestern scores 32.7 (35th) and allows 16.3 (21st).
Ball State is 1-4; its last game was a 39-24 loss to Toledo. Northwestern is 3-1 and 4-0 against the spread; its last game was a 34-13 win over Penn State.
Northwestern closed as a 35-point favorite at home against Ball State. The spread opened at Northwestern -34.5. The total closed at 53.5, up from 51.5 at the open.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Ball State Cardinals 14, Northwestern Wildcats 45
Northwestern Wildcats won by 31.
- Against the closing spread (Northwestern Wildcats -35): Ball State Cardinals covered.
- Combined score 59 vs the closing total of 53.5: Over.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Ball State Cardinals 1%, Northwestern Wildcats 99%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Game DNA
| Ball State | Points added | Northwestern |
|---|---|---|
| -6.9 | Passingdropbacks | +5.3 |
| +10.7 | Rushingdesigned runs | +3.1 |
| +7.5 | Explosive plays2 plays · 5 plays | +11.4 |
| -4.8 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| +2.4 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +2.1 |
| -4.8 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -0.1 |
| +4.3 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 2 of 3 · 4 of 4 | +7.2 |
| +8.5 | All plays | +29.0 |
The biggest single gap: passing, worth about 12.2 points to Northwestern Wildcats. The final margin was 31.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Ball State +34.5 (-106)
Ball State +35 (-112)
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts119
- Completion %63.9%99th
- Passing yards662215th
- Yards per attempt5.6242nd
- TD–INT5–3
- Rushing yards30184th
- Season line37 carries, 301 yds, 4 TD
- Receiving yards220177th
- Season line20 catches, 220 yds, 1 TD
- Tackles3498th
- Attempts89
- Completion %70.8%21st
- Passing yards900135th
- Yards per attempt10.111th
- TD–INT6–0
- Rushing yards29096th
- Season line52 carries, 290 yds, 2 TD
- Receiving yards28194th
- Season line16 catches, 281 yds, 2 TD
- Tackles4227th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 256 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 7, 5:35 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Ball State | Northwestern |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateBall State offense vs Northwestern defense | 40.3%102nd | 44.8%92nd |
| Early-down success rateNorthwestern offense vs Ball State defense | 44.6%86th | 51.8%8th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateBall State offense vs Northwestern defense | 31.7%114th | 45.7%110th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateNorthwestern offense vs Ball State defense | 50.0%123rd | 44.8%43rd |
| Explosive play rateBall State offense vs Northwestern defense | 5.4%102nd | 7.9%97th |
| Explosive play rateNorthwestern offense vs Ball State defense | 7.9%99th | 10.1%8th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 55.1%32nd-highest | 39.6%126th-highest |
On 3rd down Ball State converts 31.7% (114th) against a Northwestern defense allowing 45.7% (110th).
On 3rd down Northwestern converts 44.8% (43rd) against a Ball State defense allowing 50.0% (123rd).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Ball State | Northwestern |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Mike Uremovich | David Braun |
| Tenureat this school | 2nd season | 4th season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 5–12 | 22–20 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 5–12 | 22–20 |
| Offensive coordinator | Mike Uremovich | Chip Kelly |
| Defensive coordinator | Jeff Knowles | Tim McGarigle |
Staff list as of October 6, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Teams
Ball State Cardinals
- Ball State Cardinals team stats
- Sacramento State Hornets 17, Ball State Cardinals 34 (Oct 24)
- Ball State Cardinals 32, Bowling Green Falcons 31 (Oct 17)
- Toledo Rockets 39, Ball State Cardinals 24 (Oct 3)
Northwestern Wildcats
More NCAAF games on October 10, 2026
- Tulane Green Wave 17, Army Black Knights 20 (Oct 10)
- Sacramento State Hornets 10, Bowling Green Falcons 38 (Oct 10)
- Texas A&M Aggies 6, Missouri Tigers 27 (Oct 10)
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons 38, NC State Wolfpack 14 (Oct 10)
- Indiana Hoosiers 20, Nebraska Cornhuskers 17 (Oct 10)
- UCF Knights 28, Oklahoma State Cowboys 42 (Oct 10)
- North Carolina Tar Heels 21, Pittsburgh Panthers 17 (Oct 10)
- Arizona Wildcats 52, West Virginia Mountaineers 31 (Oct 10)
- South Carolina Gamecocks 38, Florida Gators 19 (Oct 10)
- Old Dominion Monarchs 10, Appalachian State Mountaineers 3 (Oct 10)
- Rice Owls 12, East Carolina Pirates 28 (Oct 10)
- Miami (OH) RedHawks 20, UMass Minutemen 19 (Oct 10)
- Eastern Michigan Eagles 25, Akron Zips 23 (Oct 10)
- Virginia Tech Hokies 20, California Golden Bears 25 (Oct 10)
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