Toledo Rockets vs Sacramento State Hornets Final — November 4, 2026
TOLOffense2026 regular season to dateSAC
TOLDefenseSACTOLRecent formSACTOLHome and roadseason to dateSACTOLLast 10 gamesSACRest & travelrest and travel
TOLRest & travelSACAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 9 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is a straight-line estimate from each team's home arena, not the team's actual itinerary; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game this season (7 = a normal week); preseason games do not count. Schedule facts only: no fatigue adjustment is applied.
The pre-game matchup
Toledo (5-2) visited Sacramento State (1-7) on Wednesday, November 4 at 7:00 PM ET.
Toledo has the 37th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 39th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Sacramento State has the 135th-ranked offense and the 45th-ranked defense. When Toledo has the ball, a 37th-ranked offense (+0.151 EPA per play) meets a 45th-ranked defense (−0.008 allowed); when Sacramento State has it, a 135th-ranked offense (−0.185) meets a 39th-ranked defense (−0.027 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Toledo offense is at 49.1% (33rd) and the Sacramento State offense at 41.3% (128th). Toledo scores 33.7 points per game (21st) and allows 27.6 (78th); Sacramento State scores 12.6 (135th) and allows 34.1 (118th).
Toledo is 6-2 and 4-3-1 against the spread; its last game was a 45-38 win over Western Michigan. Sacramento State is 2-7; its last game was a 31-10 win over Kent State.
Toledo closed as a 25.5-point road favorite, with Sacramento State getting the points at home. The spread opened at Toledo -27.5. The total closed at 52.5, up from 51.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Toledo -2800, Sacramento State +1300) prices Toledo at 93% and Sacramento State at 7%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Toledo Rockets 20, Sacramento State Hornets 17
Toledo Rockets won by 3.
- Against the closing spread (Sacramento State Hornets +25.5): Sacramento State Hornets covered.
- Combined score 37 vs the closing total of 52.5: Under.
- Toledo Rockets closed at -2800 on the moneyline (a 93% no-vig market-implied chance).
Market
Closing line and line movement
Toledo -27.5 (-110)
Toledo -25.5 (-109)
Sacramento State +1548 6%
Sacramento State +1300 7%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts259
- Completion %66.8%47th
- Passing yards2,24424th
- Yards per attempt8.738th
- TD–INT17–2
- Rushing yards60946th
- Season line109 carries, 609 yds, 7 TD
- Receiving yards59244th
- Season line40 catches, 592 yds, 7 TD
- Tackles6551st
- Attempts244
- Completion %56.1%208th
- Passing yards1,374156th
- Yards per attempt5.6250th
- TD–INT8–6
- Rushing yards410128th
- Season line77 carries, 410 yds, 3 TD
- Receiving yards49276th
- Season line41 catches, 492 yds, 5 TD
- Tackles7132nd
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 264 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured November 4, 5:38 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Toledo | Sacramento State |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateToledo offense vs Sacramento State defense | 47.5%18th | 41.9%55th |
| Early-down success rateSacramento State offense vs Toledo defense | 39.1%21st | 39.2%118th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateToledo offense vs Sacramento State defense | 40.2%68th | 46.7%119th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateSacramento State offense vs Toledo defense | 38.0%48th | 31.1%128th |
| Explosive play rateToledo offense vs Sacramento State defense | 6.6%71st | 8.1%108th |
| Explosive play rateSacramento State offense vs Toledo defense | 5.7%36th | 3.6%136th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 50.6%65th-highest | 59.1%12th-highest |
On 3rd down Toledo converts 40.2% (68th) against a Sacramento State defense allowing 46.7% (119th).
On 3rd down Sacramento State converts 31.1% (128th) against a Toledo defense allowing 38.0% (48th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Toledo | Sacramento State |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Mike Jacobs | Alonzo Carter |
| Tenureat this school | 1st season | 1st season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 6–2 | 2–7 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 6–2 | 2–7 |
| Offensive coordinator | Cris Reisert | Eric Kiesau / Eric Scott |
| Defensive coordinator | Jahmal Brown | Adam Clark / Kenwick Thompson |
Staff list as of November 3, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Teams
Toledo Rockets
- Toledo Rockets team stats
- Western Michigan Broncos 38, Toledo Rockets 45 (Oct 24)
- Toledo Rockets 34, Eastern Michigan Eagles 14 (Oct 17)
- Buffalo Bulls 23, Toledo Rockets 8 (Oct 10)
Sacramento State Hornets
More NCAAF games on November 4, 2026
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