UMass Minutemen vs Buffalo Bulls Final — October 17, 2026
MASSOffense2026 regular season to dateBUF
MASSDefenseBUFMASSRecent formBUFMASSHome and roadseason to dateBUFMASSLast 10 gamesBUFRest & travelrest and travel
MASSRest & travelBUFAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 6 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Massachusetts (2-2) visited Buffalo (1-3) on Saturday, October 17 at 1:00 PM ET.
Massachusetts has the 100th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 9th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Buffalo has the 109th-ranked offense and the 74th-ranked defense. When Massachusetts has the ball, a 100th-ranked offense (−0.021 EPA per play) meets a 74th-ranked defense (+0.076 allowed); when Buffalo has it, a 109th-ranked offense (−0.045) meets a 9th-ranked defense (−0.149 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Massachusetts offense is at 44.3% (91st) and the Buffalo offense at 37.9% (135th). Massachusetts scores 26.2 points per game (68th) and allows 21.2 (36th); Buffalo scores 18.2 (112th) and allows 29.0 (92nd).
Massachusetts is 4-2 and 4-2 against the spread; its last game was a 20-19 loss to Miami (OH). Buffalo is 2-3 and 2-3 against the spread; its last game was a 23-8 win over Toledo.
Buffalo closed as a 6.5-point favorite at home against Massachusetts. The spread opened at Buffalo -3.5. The total closed at 43.5, down from 47.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Massachusetts +200, Buffalo -250) prices Massachusetts at 32% and Buffalo at 68%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
UMass Minutemen 18, Buffalo Bulls 25
Buffalo Bulls won by 7.
- Against the closing spread (Buffalo Bulls -6.5): Buffalo Bulls covered.
- Combined score 43 vs the closing total of 43.5: Under.
- Buffalo Bulls closed at -250 on the moneyline (a 68% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 7 points toward Buffalo Bulls.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (UMass Minutemen 32%, Buffalo Bulls 68%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q2 1:51 — UMass Minutemen ball, 4th & 4 at MASS 45#43 E.Phillipson punt 38 yards to the BUF17 muffed by #6 M.Greer at BUF17 recovered by UMASS #7 T.Magee at BUF03, End Of Play. The previous play is under automat…UMass Minutemen 31% → 49% (+18 pts) · Drive 10 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 2:22 — UMass Minutemen ball, 3rd & 2 at BUF 28No Huddle-Shotgun #16 L.Inagawa sacked for loss of 7 yards to the BUF35 (#6 M.Greer)Buffalo Bulls 33% → 50% (+17 pts) · Drive 24 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 0:42 — Buffalo Bulls ball, 3rd & 10 at MASS 41No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Wright pass complete short left to #2 J.Andrews caught at UMASS24, for 17 yards to the UMASS24, out of bounds at UMASS24, 1ST DOWNBuffalo Bulls 35% → 59% (+23 pts) · Drive 25 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 0:02 — Buffalo Bulls ball, 4th & 8 at MASS 10#31 O.Hautanen field goal attempt from 29 yards GOOD (H: #90 E.Stumpf, LS: #48 J.Stoever), clock 00:00Buffalo Bulls 41% → 74% (+33 pts) · Drive 25 in Drive X-Ray
- OT — Buffalo Bulls ball, 1st & 10 at MASS 25No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Burch rush right for 5 yards gain to the UMASS20 (#5 T.Martin)Buffalo Bulls 60% → 88% (+28 pts) · Drive 26 in Drive X-Ray
Buffalo Bulls won after falling as low as 33% (Q4 2:22).
Game DNA
| Massachusetts | Points added | Buffalo |
|---|---|---|
| +3.8 | Passingdropbacks | +1.6 |
| +2.9 | Rushingdesigned runs | -4.9 |
| +2.6 | Explosive plays3 plays · 2 plays | +6.5 |
| -3.0 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 1 giveaways | -4.3 |
| -2.7 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +7.9 |
| -1.6 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -1.9 |
| +3.1 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 2 of 3 · 2 of 5 | -1.1 |
| +5.0 | All plays | +3.8 |
The biggest single gap: special teams, worth about 10.7 points to Buffalo Bulls. The final margin was 7.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
Buffalo Bulls closed as the market favourite at 68% and won.
The line moved toward Buffalo Bulls before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Massachusetts +3.5 (-110)
Massachusetts +6.5 (-109)
Buffalo -173 61%
Buffalo -250 68%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts100
- Completion %74.0%6th
- Passing yards820197th
- Yards per attempt8.270th
- TD–INT7–2
- Rushing yards297129th
- Season line51 carries, 297 yds, 4 TD
- Receiving yards327102nd
- Season line28 catches, 327 yds, 2 TD
- Tackles5121st
- Attempts129
- Completion %48.8%251st
- Passing yards726220th
- Yards per attempt5.6239th
- TD–INT4–3
- Rushing yards48932nd
- Season line90 carries, 489 yds, 2 TD
- Receiving yards41439th
- Season line34 catches, 414 yds, 6 TD
- Tackles4929th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 259 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 14, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Massachusetts | Buffalo |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateMassachusetts offense vs Buffalo defense | 39.9%108th | 46.3%108th |
| Early-down success rateBuffalo offense vs Massachusetts defense | 41.0%39th | 34.1%137th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateMassachusetts offense vs Buffalo defense | 39.0%82nd | 36.2%45th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateBuffalo offense vs Massachusetts defense | 43.9%98th | 28.8%125th |
| Explosive play rateMassachusetts offense vs Buffalo defense | 7.2%59th | 5.2%22nd |
| Explosive play rateBuffalo offense vs Massachusetts defense | 5.8%38th | 4.5%126th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 48.3%87th-highest | 49.6%83rd-highest |
On 3rd down Massachusetts converts 39.0% (82nd) against a Buffalo defense allowing 36.2% (45th).
On 3rd down Buffalo converts 28.8% (125th) against a Massachusetts defense allowing 43.9% (98th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Massachusetts | Buffalo |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Joe Harasymiak | Pete Lembo |
| Tenureat this school | 2nd season | 3rd season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 4–14 | 17–14 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 4–14 | 50–43 |
| Offensive coordinator | Max Warner | Tony Tokarz |
| Defensive coordinator | Jared Keyte | Brian Dougherty |
Staff list as of October 13, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 3 times since 2021: Massachusetts won 0 and Buffalo 3.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2025 | Buffalo 28, Massachusetts 21 Buffalo won | ||
| Sep 14, 2024 | Massachusetts 3, Buffalo 34 Buffalo won | ||
| Oct 15, 2022 | Buffalo 34, Massachusetts 7 Buffalo won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
UMass Minutemen
- UMass Minutemen 16, UConn Huskies 35 (Oct 23)
- Miami (OH) RedHawks 20, UMass Minutemen 19 (Oct 10)
- Eastern Michigan Eagles 38, UMass Minutemen 14 (Oct 3)
Buffalo Bulls
More NCAAF games on October 17, 2026
- Florida Atlantic Owls 24, Army Black Knights 56 (Oct 17)
- Pittsburgh Panthers 21, Boston College Eagles 27 (Oct 17)
- Ball State Cardinals 32, Bowling Green Falcons 31 (Oct 17)
- Charleston Southern Buccaneers 0, Clemson Tigers 37 (Oct 17)
- Ohio State Buckeyes 19, Indiana Hoosiers 15 (Oct 17)
- Georgia State Panthers 22, James Madison Dukes 49 (Oct 17)
- Kansas Jayhawks 24, Kansas State Wildcats 35 (Oct 17)
- Mississippi State Bulldogs 0, LSU Tigers 31 (Oct 17)
- Northwestern Wildcats 24, Michigan State Spartans 21 (Oct 17)
- Virginia Cavaliers 13, SMU Mustangs 23 (Oct 17)
- Florida Gators 27, Texas Longhorns 24 (Oct 17)
- Cincinnati Bearcats 42, West Virginia Mountaineers 45 (Oct 17)
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights 37, Maryland Terrapins 30 (Oct 17)
- Charlotte 49ers 38, Temple Owls 31 (Oct 17)
Dig deeper
Follow the market every day
See every game's current line on the odds board, or check our fully tracked results.
Odds boardTracked results