Miami (OH) RedHawks vs UMass Minutemen Final — October 10, 2026
M-OHOffense2026 regular season to dateMASS
M-OHDefenseMASSM-OHRecent formMASSM-OHHome and roadseason to dateMASSM-OHLast 10 gamesMASSRest & travelrest and travel
M-OHRest & travelMASSAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 5 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Miami (OH) (1-3) visited Massachusetts (2-1) on Saturday, October 10 at 2:00 PM ET.
Miami (OH) has the 18th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 112th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Massachusetts has the 76th-ranked offense and the 14th-ranked defense. When Miami (OH) has the ball, a 18th-ranked offense (+0.262 EPA per play) meets a 14th-ranked defense (−0.141 allowed); when Massachusetts has it, a 76th-ranked offense (+0.043) meets a 112th-ranked defense (+0.202 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Miami (OH) offense is at 47.7% (56th) and the Massachusetts offense at 47.0% (67th). Miami (OH) scores 22.2 points per game (86th) and allows 34.8 (113th); Massachusetts scores 28.7 (54th) and allows 21.7 (43rd).
Miami (OH) is 2-3 and 3-2 against the spread; its last game was a 24-20 loss to Bowling Green. Massachusetts is 4-1 and 3-2 against the spread; its last game was a 38-14 loss to Eastern Michigan.
Miami (OH) closed as a 6-point road favorite, with Massachusetts getting the points at home. The spread opened at Miami (OH) -2.5. The total closed at 44.5, down from 49.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Miami (OH) -225, Massachusetts +185) prices Miami (OH) at 66% and Massachusetts at 34%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Miami (OH) RedHawks 20, UMass Minutemen 19
Miami (OH) RedHawks won by 1.
- Against the closing spread (UMass Minutemen +6): UMass Minutemen covered.
- Combined score 39 vs the closing total of 44.5: Under.
- Miami (OH) RedHawks closed at -225 on the moneyline (a 66% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 13 points toward Miami (OH) RedHawks.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Miami (OH) RedHawks 66%, UMass Minutemen 34%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 6:36 — UMass Minutemen ball, 2nd & 4 at M-OH 29Shotgun #14 C.Kimmons IV rush left for 6 yards gain to the MIA23 (#1 D.Tatum)UMass Minutemen 42% → 49% (+7 pts) · Drive 3 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 3:51 — Miami (OH) RedHawks ball, 1st & 10 at MASS 20Shotgun #24 S.Smith rush left for 20 yards gain to the UMass00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:51, 1ST DOWN #38 K.McLaughlin kick attempt good (H: #34 P.Stainton, LS: #60 T.…Miami (OH) RedHawks 59% → 65% (+6 pts) · Drive 4 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 2:12 — UMass Minutemen ball, 4th & 1 at MASS 34#23 E.Faulkner rush right for 0 yards to the UMass34 (#13 D.Yharbrough), TURNOVER ON DOWNSMiami (OH) RedHawks 68% → 75% (+8 pts) · Drive 5 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 3:36 — UMass Minutemen ball, 2nd & 1 at MASS 21Shotgun #23 E.Faulkner rush left for 0 yards to the UMass21 fumbled by #23 E.Faulkner at UMass19 recovered by MIA #43 G.Lyons at UMass21, End Of PlayMiami (OH) RedHawks 73% → 86% (+13 pts) · Drive 18 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 0:01 — UMass Minutemen ball, 2nd & 8 at M-OH 21No Huddle-Shotgun #16 L.Inagawa pass complete deep middle to #11 M.Dowling caught at MIA00, for 21 yards to the MIA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:01, 1ST DOWN #83 R.Adki…Miami (OH) RedHawks 95% → 100% (+5 pts) · Drive 24 in Drive X-Ray
Game DNA
| Miami (OH) | Points added | Massachusetts |
|---|---|---|
| -18.4 | Passingdropbacks | -7.6 |
| +4.5 | Rushingdesigned runs | -9.4 |
| +3.2 | Explosive plays4 plays · 4 plays | +13.5 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 1 giveaways | -6.0 |
| -1.7 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -0.3 |
| -1.1 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +1.4 |
| +1.8 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 2 of 3 · 0 of 1 | -0.2 |
| -11.8 | All plays | -8.6 |
The biggest single gap: rushing, worth about 13.9 points to Miami (OH) RedHawks. The final margin was 1.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
Miami (OH) RedHawks closed as the market favourite at 66% and won.
The line moved toward Miami (OH) RedHawks before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Miami (OH) -2.5 (-107)
Miami (OH) -6 (-114)
Massachusetts +107 46%
Massachusetts +185 34%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts30
- Completion %73.3%
- Passing yards226
- Yards per attempt7.5
- TD–INT1–1
- Rushing yards154277th
- Season line44 carries, 154 yds
- Receiving yards27499th
- Season line12 catches, 274 yds, 2 TD
- Tackles3941st
- Attempts100
- Completion %74.0%7th
- Passing yards820166th
- Yards per attempt8.273rd
- TD–INT7–2
- Rushing yards262117th
- Season line45 carries, 262 yds, 3 TD
- Receiving yards236157th
- Season line19 catches, 236 yds, 2 TD
- Tackles4035th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 256 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 7, 5:35 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Miami (OH) | Massachusetts |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateMiami (OH) offense vs Massachusetts defense | 45.0%45th | 40.7%41st |
| Early-down success rateMassachusetts offense vs Miami (OH) defense | 44.7%90th | 42.7%74th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateMiami (OH) offense vs Massachusetts defense | 34.1%101st | 53.6%133rd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateMassachusetts offense vs Miami (OH) defense | 48.9%122nd | 46.2%35th |
| Explosive play rateMiami (OH) offense vs Massachusetts defense | 9.6%11th | 5.3%29th |
| Explosive play rateMassachusetts offense vs Miami (OH) defense | 7.0%83rd | 6.9%65th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 56.9%20th-highest | 43.4%114th-highest |
On 3rd down Miami (OH) converts 34.1% (101st) against a Massachusetts defense allowing 53.6% (133rd).
On 3rd down Massachusetts converts 46.2% (35th) against a Miami (OH) defense allowing 48.9% (122nd).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Miami (OH) | Massachusetts |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Chuck Martin | Joe Harasymiak |
| Tenureat this school | 13th season | 2nd season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 74–77 | 4–13 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 74–77 | 4–13 |
| Offensive coordinator | Gus Ragland | Max Warner |
| Defensive coordinator | Bill Brechin | Jared Keyte |
Staff list as of October 6, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 2 times since 2021: Miami (OH) won 2 and Massachusetts 0.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 2024 | Massachusetts 20, Miami (OH) 23 Miami (OH) won | ||
| Sep 9, 2023 | Miami (OH) 41, Massachusetts 28 Miami (OH) won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Miami (OH) RedHawks
- Miami (OH) RedHawks team stats
- Miami (OH) RedHawks 28, Central Michigan Chippewas 27 (Oct 24)
- Akron Zips 14, Miami (OH) RedHawks 34 (Oct 17)
- Bowling Green Falcons 24, Miami (OH) RedHawks 20 (Oct 3)
UMass Minutemen
More NCAAF games on October 10, 2026
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- UCF Knights 28, Oklahoma State Cowboys 42 (Oct 10)
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- Arizona Wildcats 52, West Virginia Mountaineers 31 (Oct 10)
- Ball State Cardinals 14, Northwestern Wildcats 45 (Oct 10)
- South Carolina Gamecocks 38, Florida Gators 19 (Oct 10)
- Old Dominion Monarchs 10, Appalachian State Mountaineers 3 (Oct 10)
- Rice Owls 12, East Carolina Pirates 28 (Oct 10)
- Eastern Michigan Eagles 25, Akron Zips 23 (Oct 10)
- Virginia Tech Hokies 20, California Golden Bears 25 (Oct 10)
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