UMass Minutemen vs UConn Huskies Final — October 23, 2026
MASSOffense2026 regular season to dateCONN
MASSDefenseCONNMASSRecent formCONNMASSHome and roadseason to dateCONNMASSLast 10 gamesCONNRest & travelrest and travel
MASSRest & travelCONNAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 7 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Massachusetts (2-3) visited UConn (2-3) on Friday, October 23 at 7:00 PM ET.
Massachusetts has the 86th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 11th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, UConn has the 25th-ranked offense and the 124th-ranked defense. When Massachusetts has the ball, a 86th-ranked offense (+0.021 EPA per play) meets a 124th-ranked defense (+0.220 allowed); when UConn has it, a 25th-ranked offense (+0.203) meets a 11th-ranked defense (−0.118 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Massachusetts offense is at 46.5% (76th) and the UConn offense at 47.0% (69th). Massachusetts scores 24.6 points per game (77th) and allows 22.0 (40th); UConn scores 31.6 (35th) and allows 28.8 (88th).
Massachusetts is 4-3 and 4-3 against the spread; its last game was a 25-18 loss to Buffalo. UConn is 3-3 and 4-2 against the spread; its last game was a 34-20 win over Temple.
UConn closed as a 12.5-point favorite at home against Massachusetts. The spread opened at UConn -15.5. The total closed at 53.5, up from 49.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Massachusetts +390, UConn -525) prices Massachusetts at 20% and UConn at 80%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
UMass Minutemen 16, UConn Huskies 35
UConn Huskies won by 19.
- Against the closing spread (UConn Huskies -12.5): UConn Huskies covered.
- Combined score 51 vs the closing total of 53.5: Under.
- UConn Huskies closed at -525 on the moneyline (a 80% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 6 points toward UMass Minutemen.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (UMass Minutemen 20%, UConn Huskies 80%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 12:27 — UMass Minutemen ball, 1st & 10 at CONN 32Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass complete short left to #8 K.Dia-Johnson caught at UC26, for 8 yards to the UC24 (#12 S.Suchanic), out of boundsUConn Huskies 67% → 80% (+13 pts) · Drive 1 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 12:27 — UMass Minutemen ball, 3rd & 9 at CONN 32Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass complete short left to #8 K.Dia-Johnson caught at UC26, for 8 yards to the UC24 (#12 S.Suchanic), out of boundsUMass Minutemen 24% → 29% (+5 pts) · Drive 1 in Drive X-Ray
Game DNA
| Massachusetts | Points added | UConn |
|---|---|---|
| -11.2 | Passingdropbacks | -10.3 |
| -5.9 | Rushingdesigned runs | +0.9 |
| +2.9 | Explosive plays3 plays · 3 plays | +9.7 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| -3.5 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -2.2 |
| -2.3 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -2.6 |
| +3.6 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 2 of 3 · 3 of 3 | +7.0 |
| -16.5 | All plays | +2.6 |
The biggest single gap: rushing, worth about 6.9 points to UConn Huskies. The final margin was 19.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
UConn Huskies closed as the market favourite at 80% and won.
The line moved toward UMass Minutemen before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Massachusetts +15.5 (-105)
Massachusetts +12.5 (-109)
UConn -960 87%
UConn -525 80%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts100
- Completion %74.0%4th
- Passing yards820217th
- Yards per attempt8.266th
- TD–INT7–2
- Rushing yards361107th
- Season line83 carries, 361 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving yards327139th
- Season line28 catches, 327 yds, 2 TD
- Tackles6412th
- Attempts163
- Completion %60.1%158th
- Passing yards1,42188th
- Yards per attempt8.743rd
- TD–INT10–2
- Rushing yards43365th
- Season line65 carries, 433 yds, 6 TD
- Receiving yards235269th
- Season line11 catches, 235 yds, 2 TD
- Tackles40191st
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 262 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 21, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Massachusetts | UConn |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateMassachusetts offense vs UConn defense | 41.9%88th | 46.4%111th |
| Early-down success rateUConn offense vs Massachusetts defense | 39.1%18th | 44.7%50th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateMassachusetts offense vs UConn defense | 37.5%91st | 44.3%102nd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateUConn offense vs Massachusetts defense | 44.1%98th | 42.3%54th |
| Explosive play rateMassachusetts offense vs UConn defense | 6.5%77th | 7.4%87th |
| Explosive play rateUConn offense vs Massachusetts defense | 4.9%15th | 10.7%2nd |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 45.7%107th-highest | 49.8%80th-highest |
On 3rd down Massachusetts converts 37.5% (91st) against a UConn defense allowing 44.3% (102nd).
On 3rd down UConn converts 42.3% (54th) against a Massachusetts defense allowing 44.1% (98th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Massachusetts | UConn |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Joe Harasymiak | Jason Candle |
| Tenureat this school | 2nd season | 1st season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 4–15 | 3–3 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 4–15 | 84–47 |
| Offensive coordinator | Max Warner | Marquel Blackwell / Nunzio Campanile |
| Defensive coordinator | Jared Keyte | Ryan Manalac |
Staff list as of October 20, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 4 times since 2021: Massachusetts won 1 and UConn 3.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2024 | UConn 47, Massachusetts 42 UConn won | ||
| Nov 25, 2023 | UConn 31, Massachusetts 18 UConn won | ||
| Nov 4, 2022 | Massachusetts 10, UConn 27 UConn won | ||
| Oct 9, 2021 | UConn 13, Massachusetts 27 Massachusetts won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
UMass Minutemen
- UMass Minutemen 18, Buffalo Bulls 25 (Oct 17)
- Miami (OH) RedHawks 20, UMass Minutemen 19 (Oct 10)
- Eastern Michigan Eagles 38, UMass Minutemen 14 (Oct 3)
UConn Huskies
More NCAAF games on October 23, 2026
Dig deeper
Follow the market every day
See every game's current line on the odds board, or check our fully tracked results.
Odds boardTracked results