Ball State Cardinals vs Bowling Green Falcons Final — October 17, 2026
BALLOffense2026 regular season to dateBGSU
BALLDefenseBGSUBALLRecent formBGSUBALLHome and roadseason to dateBGSUBALLLast 10 gamesBGSURest & travelrest and travel
BALLRest & travelBGSUAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 6 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Ball State (0-5) visited Bowling Green (2-3) on Saturday, October 17 at 12:00 PM ET.
Ball State has the 85th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 129th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Bowling Green has the 122nd-ranked offense and the 92nd-ranked defense. When Ball State has the ball, a 85th-ranked offense (+0.018 EPA per play) meets a 92nd-ranked defense (+0.127 allowed); when Bowling Green has it, a 122nd-ranked offense (−0.114) meets a 129th-ranked defense (+0.274 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Ball State offense is at 46.0% (79th) and the Bowling Green offense at 39.2% (131st). Ball State scores 13.8 points per game (129th) and allows 43.4 (135th); Bowling Green scores 16.4 (121st) and allows 31.0 (105th).
Ball State is 1-5; its last game was a 45-14 loss to Northwestern. Bowling Green is 2-4 and 3-3 against the spread; its last game was a 38-10 win over Sacramento State.
Bowling Green closed as a 6-point favorite at home against Ball State. The spread opened at Bowling Green -7. The total closed at 46.5, up from 45.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Ball State +195, Bowling Green -240) prices Ball State at 32% and Bowling Green at 68%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Ball State Cardinals 32, Bowling Green Falcons 31
Ball State Cardinals won by 1.
- Against the closing spread (Bowling Green Falcons -6): Ball State Cardinals covered.
- Combined score 63 vs the closing total of 46.5: Over.
- Ball State Cardinals closed at +195 on the moneyline (a 32% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 5 points toward Ball State Cardinals.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Ball State Cardinals 32%, Bowling Green Falcons 68%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q4 1:12 — Bowling Green Falcons ball, 3rd & 6 at BALL 6Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short middle to #8 E.Jacon-Duffy caught at BallSt00, for 6 yards to the BallSt00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:12 #12 T.Kenner kick a…Bowling Green Falcons 24% → 47% (+23 pts) · Drive 16 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 1:01 — Ball State Cardinals ball, 1st & 10 at BALL 25D'kyah Banks 35 Yd Fumble Return (Travis Kenner Kick)Bowling Green Falcons 47% → 96% (+49 pts) · Drive 17 in Drive X-Ray
- OT — Ball State Cardinals ball, 2nd & 10 at BGSU 20Eli Hohlt 20 Yd pass from Keldric Luster (Brody Boehm Kick)Ball State Cardinals 6% → 70% (+64 pts) · Drive 18 in Drive X-Ray
- OT — Ball State Cardinals ball, 1st & 1 at BGSU 25Shotgun #4 T.Horton rush left for 4 yards gain to the BGSU21 (#18 N.Sawyer), out of boundsBall State Cardinals 46% → 100% (+54 pts) · Drive 20 in Drive X-Ray
- OT — Bowling Green Falcons ball, 2nd & 2 at BALL 25Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short right to #2 N.Amachree caught at BallSt29, for 8 yards to the BallSt17 (#16 K.Stewart)Bowling Green Falcons 67% → 88% (+21 pts) · Drive 19 in Drive X-Ray
Ball State Cardinals won after falling as low as 4% (Q4 0:31).
Game DNA
| Ball State | Points added | Bowling Green |
|---|---|---|
| +1.3 | Passingdropbacks | -1.6 |
| +0.0 | Rushingdesigned runs | +4.2 |
| +6.2 | Explosive plays4 plays · 2 plays | +8.9 |
| -7.5 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 1 giveaways | -4.4 |
| +0.3 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -2.2 |
| -0.6 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +2.2 |
| +7.7 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 3 of 3 · 2 of 3 | -1.9 |
| +7.5 | All plays | +5.2 |
The biggest single gap: red zone, worth about 9.6 points to Ball State Cardinals. The final margin was 1.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
Bowling Green Falcons closed as the market favourite at 68% and lost.
The line moved toward Ball State Cardinals before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Ball State +7 (-110)
Ball State +6 (-111)
Bowling Green -313 73%
Bowling Green -240 68%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts160
- Completion %64.4%86th
- Passing yards871181st
- Yards per attempt5.4247th
- TD–INT6–4
- Rushing yards311116th
- Season line43 carries, 311 yds, 5 TD
- Receiving yards273148th
- Season line22 catches, 273 yds, 1 TD
- Tackles38134th
- Attempts143
- Completion %65.7%72nd
- Passing yards986152nd
- Yards per attempt6.9165th
- TD–INT5–3
- Rushing yards271151st
- Season line77 carries, 271 yds, 3 TD
- Receiving yards252177th
- Season line24 catches, 252 yds
- Tackles567th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 259 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 14, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Ball State | Bowling Green |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateBall State offense vs Bowling Green defense | 41.7%85th | 46.9%114th |
| Early-down success rateBowling Green offense vs Ball State defense | 45.9%105th | 38.6%120th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateBall State offense vs Bowling Green defense | 34.0%103rd | 34.1%32nd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateBowling Green offense vs Ball State defense | 49.1%118th | 36.4%93rd |
| Explosive play rateBall State offense vs Bowling Green defense | 5.1%112th | 8.0%105th |
| Explosive play rateBowling Green offense vs Ball State defense | 8.4%114th | 4.1%131st |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 56.8%19th-highest | 50.0%78th-highest |
On 3rd down Ball State converts 34.0% (103rd) against a Bowling Green defense allowing 34.1% (32nd).
On 3rd down Bowling Green converts 36.4% (93rd) against a Ball State defense allowing 49.1% (118th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Ball State | Bowling Green |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Mike Uremovich | Eddie George |
| Tenureat this school | 2nd season | 2nd season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 5–13 | 6–12 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 5–13 | 6–12 |
| Offensive coordinator | Mike Uremovich | Greg Nosal |
| Defensive coordinator | Jeff Knowles | Joe Bowden |
Staff list as of October 13, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 2 times since 2021: Ball State won 0 and Bowling Green 2.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2024 | Bowling Green 38, Ball State 13 Bowling Green won | ||
| Nov 1, 2023 | Ball State 21, Bowling Green 24 Bowling Green won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Ball State Cardinals
- Ball State Cardinals team stats
- Sacramento State Hornets 17, Ball State Cardinals 34 (Oct 24)
- Ball State Cardinals 14, Northwestern Wildcats 45 (Oct 10)
- Toledo Rockets 39, Ball State Cardinals 24 (Oct 3)
Bowling Green Falcons
More NCAAF games on October 17, 2026
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- Kansas Jayhawks 24, Kansas State Wildcats 35 (Oct 17)
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- Virginia Cavaliers 13, SMU Mustangs 23 (Oct 17)
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- Cincinnati Bearcats 42, West Virginia Mountaineers 45 (Oct 17)
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights 37, Maryland Terrapins 30 (Oct 17)
- UMass Minutemen 18, Buffalo Bulls 25 (Oct 17)
- Charlotte 49ers 38, Temple Owls 31 (Oct 17)
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