Buffalo Bulls vs Toledo Rockets Final — October 10, 2026
BUFOffense2026 regular season to dateTOL
BUFDefenseTOLBUFRecent formTOLBUFHome and roadseason to dateTOLBUFLast 10 gamesTOLRest & travelrest and travel
BUFRest & travelTOLAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 5 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Buffalo (0-3) visited Toledo (3-1) on Saturday, October 10 at 3:30 PM ET.
Buffalo has the 109th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 83rd-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Toledo has the 35th-ranked offense and the 41st-ranked defense. When Buffalo has the ball, a 109th-ranked offense (−0.066 EPA per play) meets a 41st-ranked defense (−0.024 allowed); when Toledo has it, a 35th-ranked offense (+0.172) meets a 83rd-ranked defense (+0.103 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Buffalo offense is at 37.2% (134th) and the Toledo offense at 46.8% (70th). Buffalo scores 16.7 points per game (118th) and allows 36.0 (117th); Toledo scores 37.2 (14th) and allows 29.5 (87th).
Buffalo is 1-3 and 1-3 against the spread; its last game was a 20-17 loss to Western Michigan. Toledo is 4-1 and 2-2-1 against the spread; its last game was a 39-24 win over Ball State.
Toledo closed as a 18.5-point favorite at home against Buffalo. The spread opened at Toledo -19.5. The total closed at 54.5, down from 55 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Buffalo +760, Toledo -1400) prices Buffalo at 11% and Toledo at 89%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Buffalo Bulls 23, Toledo Rockets 8
Buffalo Bulls won by 15.
- Against the closing spread (Toledo Rockets -18.5): Buffalo Bulls covered.
- Combined score 31 vs the closing total of 54.5: Under.
- Buffalo Bulls closed at +760 on the moneyline (a 11% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
The market barely moved from open to close.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Buffalo Bulls 11%, Toledo Rockets 89%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q2 7:23 — Toledo Rockets ball, 3rd & 8 at TOL 9No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Richter rush middle for 2 yards gain to the TOLEDO11 fumbled by #6 J.Richter at TOLEDO11 forced by #97 C.Climes recovered by BUFFAL #44 Z.…Buffalo Bulls 29% → 39% (+10 pts) · Drive 10 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 5:21 — Buffalo Bulls ball, 4th & 2 at TOL 3No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Wright rush middle for 3 yards gain to the TOLEDO00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:21, 1ST DOWN #31 O.Hautanen kick attempt good (H: #90 E.Stumpf, LS…Buffalo Bulls 37% → 47% (+11 pts) · Drive 11 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 13:58 — Toledo Rockets ball, 1st & 10 at TOL 41PENALTY TOLEDO False Start (#50 L.Rector) 5 yards from TOLEDO41 to TOLEDO36. NO PLAYBuffalo Bulls 52% → 67% (+15 pts) · Drive 14 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 13:14 — Buffalo Bulls ball, 1st & 10 at TOL 38No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Wright pass complete short middle to #5 C.Walker caught at TOLEDO22, for 17 yards to the TOLEDO21 (#44 I.Zay), 1ST DOWNToledo Rockets 23% → 39% (+16 pts) · Drive 15 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 4:30 — Buffalo Bulls ball, 1st & 10 at BUF 13No Huddle-Shotgun #41 M.Burch rush right for 87 yards gain to the TOLEDO00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:30, 1ST DOWN #31 O.Hautanen kick attempt good (H: #90 E.Stumpf, LS…Buffalo Bulls 85% → 97% (+11 pts) · Drive 23 in Drive X-Ray
Buffalo Bulls won after falling as low as 11% (Q1 14:15).
Game DNA
| Buffalo | Points added | Toledo |
|---|---|---|
| -9.1 | Passingdropbacks | -5.1 |
| -0.1 | Rushingdesigned runs | +2.6 |
| +10.7 | Explosive plays2 plays · 1 plays | +2.1 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 1 giveaways | -3.1 |
| +3.4 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -10.7 |
| +0.1 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -2.8 |
| -1.4 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 1 of 5 · 1 of 1 | +3.9 |
| +3.5 | All plays | -13.0 |
The biggest single gap: special teams, worth about 14.1 points to Buffalo Bulls. The final margin was 15.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
Toledo Rockets closed as the market favourite at 89% and lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Buffalo +19.5 (-110)
Buffalo +18.5 (-109)
Toledo -1300 89%
Toledo -1400 89%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts98
- Completion %50.0%250th
- Passing yards555232nd
- Yards per attempt5.7239th
- TD–INT4–3
- Rushing yards35254th
- Season line73 carries, 352 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving yards39727th
- Season line32 catches, 397 yds, 6 TD
- Tackles3849th
- Attempts153
- Completion %64.1%97th
- Passing yards1,36239th
- Yards per attempt8.943rd
- TD–INT13–1
- Rushing yards34656th
- Season line54 carries, 346 yds, 4 TD
- Receiving yards36740th
- Season line25 catches, 367 yds, 4 TD
- Tackles3941st
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 256 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 7, 5:35 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Buffalo | Toledo |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateBuffalo offense vs Toledo defense | 33.9%135th | 41.8%49th |
| Early-down success rateToledo offense vs Buffalo defense | 45.5%97th | 44.0%57th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateBuffalo offense vs Toledo defense | 23.1%132nd | 41.5%82nd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateToledo offense vs Buffalo defense | 41.2%80th | 43.1%54th |
| Explosive play rateBuffalo offense vs Toledo defense | 5.4%103rd | 6.3%57th |
| Explosive play rateToledo offense vs Buffalo defense | 6.5%63rd | 8.7%27th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 51.8%61st-highest | 50.8%72nd-highest |
On 3rd down Buffalo converts 23.1% (132nd) against a Toledo defense allowing 41.5% (82nd).
On 3rd down Toledo converts 43.1% (54th) against a Buffalo defense allowing 41.2% (80th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Buffalo | Toledo |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Pete Lembo | Mike Jacobs |
| Tenureat this school | 3rd season | 1st season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 16–14 | 4–1 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 49–43 | 4–1 |
| Offensive coordinator | Tony Tokarz | Cris Reisert |
| Defensive coordinator | Brian Dougherty | Jahmal Brown |
Staff list as of October 6, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 3 times since 2021: Buffalo won 2 and Toledo 1.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2024 | Toledo 15, Buffalo 30 Buffalo won | ||
| Oct 31, 2023 | Buffalo 13, Toledo 31 Toledo won | ||
| Oct 22, 2022 | Toledo 27, Buffalo 34 Buffalo won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Buffalo Bulls
- Buffalo Bulls team stats
- Bowling Green Falcons 24, Buffalo Bulls 31 (Oct 24)
- UMass Minutemen 18, Buffalo Bulls 25 (Oct 17)
- Western Michigan Broncos 20, Buffalo Bulls 17 (Oct 3)
Toledo Rockets
More NCAAF games on October 10, 2026
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- Indiana Hoosiers 20, Nebraska Cornhuskers 17 (Oct 10)
- UCF Knights 28, Oklahoma State Cowboys 42 (Oct 10)
- North Carolina Tar Heels 21, Pittsburgh Panthers 17 (Oct 10)
- Arizona Wildcats 52, West Virginia Mountaineers 31 (Oct 10)
- Ball State Cardinals 14, Northwestern Wildcats 45 (Oct 10)
- South Carolina Gamecocks 38, Florida Gators 19 (Oct 10)
- Old Dominion Monarchs 10, Appalachian State Mountaineers 3 (Oct 10)
- Rice Owls 12, East Carolina Pirates 28 (Oct 10)
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- Eastern Michigan Eagles 25, Akron Zips 23 (Oct 10)
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