Western Michigan Broncos vs Toledo Rockets Final — October 24, 2026
WMUOffense2026 regular season to dateTOL
WMUDefenseTOLWMURecent formTOLWMUHome and roadseason to dateTOLWMULast 10 gamesTOLRest & travelrest and travel
WMURest & travelTOLAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 7 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Western Michigan (4-2) visited Toledo (4-2) on Saturday, October 24 at 12:00 PM ET.
Western Michigan has the 83rd-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 71st-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Toledo has the 44th-ranked offense and the 31st-ranked defense. When Western Michigan has the ball, a 83rd-ranked offense (+0.028 EPA per play) meets a 31st-ranked defense (−0.039 allowed); when Toledo has it, a 44th-ranked offense (+0.145) meets a 71st-ranked defense (+0.075 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Western Michigan offense is at 47.3% (64th) and the Toledo offense at 46.9% (70th). Western Michigan scores 21.0 points per game (101st) and allows 17.3 (19th); Toledo scores 31.8 (35th) and allows 25.8 (70th).
Western Michigan is 5-2 and 3-4 against the spread; its last game was a 21-14 win over Central Michigan. Toledo is 5-2 and 3-3-1 against the spread; its last game was a 34-14 win over Eastern Michigan.
Toledo closed as a 2.5-point favorite at home against Western Michigan. The spread opened at Toledo -3. The total closed at 48.5, up from 44.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Western Michigan +120, Toledo -145) prices Western Michigan at 43% and Toledo at 57%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Western Michigan Broncos 38, Toledo Rockets 45
Toledo Rockets won by 7.
- Against the closing spread (Toledo Rockets -2.5): Toledo Rockets covered.
- Combined score 83 vs the closing total of 48.5: Over.
- Toledo Rockets closed at -145 on the moneyline (a 57% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 2 points toward Western Michigan Broncos.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Western Michigan Broncos 43%, Toledo Rockets 57%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 13:32 — Western Michigan Broncos ball, 1st & 10 at WMU 40No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry sacked for loss of 8 yards to the WMU32 (#0 A.Zock), fumble by #12 B.Lowry recovered by TOLEDO #10 J.Fox at WMU32, End Of PlayToledo Rockets 49% → 63% (+14 pts) · Drive 2 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 1:56 — Western Michigan Broncos ball, 1st & 3 at TOL 3No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush left for 3 yards gain to the TOLEDO00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:56 #32 D.Kelly kick attempt good (H: #25 R.Millmore, LS: #46 D.Doyl…Toledo Rockets 68% → 83% (+15 pts) · Drive 14 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 7:04 — Toledo Rockets ball, 3rd & 6 at TOL 29No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Richter pass complete deep middle to #12 B.Hammer caught at WMU31, for 47 yards to the WMU24 (#18 M.Davis), 1ST DOWNToledo Rockets 65% → 78% (+13 pts) · Drive 20 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 3:14 — Western Michigan Broncos ball, 4th & 6 at TOL 41No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete deep middle to #7 B.Brooks caught at TOLEDO08, for 41 yards to the TOLEDO00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:14, 1ST DOWN #32 D.Ke…Western Michigan Broncos 13% → 30% (+17 pts) · Drive 21 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 14:19 — Toledo Rockets ball, 4th & 2 at WMU 34No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Richter pass complete short middle to #12 B.Hammer caught at WMU33, for 1 yard to the WMU33 (#0 B.Anes), TURNOVER ON DOWNSWestern Michigan Broncos 26% → 39% (+12 pts) · Drive 22 in Drive X-Ray
Toledo Rockets won after falling as low as 36% (Q4 10:26).
Game DNA
| Western Michigan | Points added | Toledo |
|---|---|---|
| +0.9 | Passingdropbacks | -8.3 |
| -9.9 | Rushingdesigned runs | +4.5 |
| +13.0 | Explosive plays3 plays · 5 plays | +14.6 |
| -4.8 | Turnovers2 giveaways · 2 giveaways | -8.0 |
| -2.5 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -2.0 |
| -1.7 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -0.5 |
| +3.8 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 3 of 4 · 5 of 7 | +11.6 |
| -1.2 | All plays | +11.9 |
The biggest single gap: rushing, worth about 14.5 points to Toledo Rockets. The final margin was 7.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
Toledo Rockets closed as the market favourite at 57% and won.
The line moved toward Western Michigan Broncos before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Western Michigan +3 (-110)
Western Michigan +2.5 (-104)
Toledo -152 58%
Toledo -145 57%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts147
- Completion %68.0%34th
- Passing yards1,044174th
- Yards per attempt7.1142nd
- TD–INT8–1
- Rushing yards54233rd
- Season line102 carries, 542 yds, 7 TD
- Receiving yards326141st
- Season line22 catches, 326 yds, 1 TD
- Tackles5158th
- Attempts218
- Completion %66.1%65th
- Passing yards1,85324th
- Yards per attempt8.551st
- TD–INT14–1
- Rushing yards42674th
- Season line76 carries, 426 yds, 6 TD
- Receiving yards46848th
- Season line32 catches, 468 yds, 5 TD
- Tackles5627th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 262 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 21, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Western Michigan | Toledo |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateWestern Michigan offense vs Toledo defense | 41.9%87th | 39.3%22nd |
| Early-down success rateToledo offense vs Western Michigan defense | 44.7%92nd | 45.2%46th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateWestern Michigan offense vs Toledo defense | 47.1%26th | 39.8%64th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateToledo offense vs Western Michigan defense | 32.9%18th | 39.5%78th |
| Explosive play rateWestern Michigan offense vs Toledo defense | 4.6%127th | 5.5%32nd |
| Explosive play rateToledo offense vs Western Michigan defense | 5.5%29th | 6.8%68th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 38.2%128th-highest | 51.0%69th-highest |
On 3rd down Western Michigan converts 47.1% (26th) against a Toledo defense allowing 39.8% (64th).
On 3rd down Toledo converts 39.5% (78th) against a Western Michigan defense allowing 32.9% (18th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Western Michigan | Toledo |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Lance Taylor | Mike Jacobs |
| Tenureat this school | 4th season | 1st season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 25–21 | 5–2 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 25–21 | 5–2 |
| Offensive coordinator | Walt Bell | Cris Reisert |
| Defensive coordinator | Greer Martini / Duane Vaughn | Jahmal Brown |
Staff list as of October 20, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 4 times since 2021: Western Michigan won 2 and Toledo 2.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2025 | Toledo 13, Western Michigan 14 Western Michigan won | ||
| Sep 23, 2023 | Western Michigan 31, Toledo 49 Toledo won | ||
| Nov 25, 2022 | Toledo 14, Western Michigan 20 Western Michigan won | ||
| Oct 23, 2021 | Western Michigan 15, Toledo 34 Toledo won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Western Michigan Broncos
- Western Michigan Broncos team stats
- Bowling Green Falcons at Western Michigan Broncos (Oct 31)
- Western Michigan Broncos 21, Central Michigan Chippewas 14 (Oct 17)
- Kent State Golden Flashes 7, Western Michigan Broncos 38 (Oct 10)
- Western Michigan Broncos 20, Buffalo Bulls 17 (Oct 3)
Toledo Rockets
More NCAAF games on October 24, 2026
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- Texas Tech Red Raiders 24, Cincinnati Bearcats 37 (Oct 24)
- Rice Owls 49, Florida Atlantic Owls 51 (Oct 24)
- Pittsburgh Panthers 23, Miami Hurricanes 52 (Oct 24)
- Indiana Hoosiers 13, Michigan Wolverines 6 (Oct 24)
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights 14, Northwestern Wildcats 42 (Oct 24)
- California Golden Bears 20, SMU Mustangs 59 (Oct 24)
- West Virginia Mountaineers 24, TCU Horned Frogs 20 (Oct 24)
- Miami (OH) RedHawks 28, Central Michigan Chippewas 27 (Oct 24)
- Baylor Bears 24, Kansas Jayhawks 25 (Oct 24)
- Akron Zips 20, Kent State Golden Flashes 35 (Oct 24)
- Oregon Ducks 10, Illinois Fighting Illini 21 (Oct 24)
- Texas A&M Aggies 20, Alabama Crimson Tide 31 (Oct 24)
- Sacramento State Hornets 17, Ball State Cardinals 34 (Oct 24)
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