Ohio Bobcats vs Sacramento State Hornets Final — October 17, 2026
OHIOOffense2026 regular season to dateSAC
OHIODefenseSACOHIORecent formSACOHIOHome and roadseason to dateSACOHIOLast 10 gamesSACRest & travelrest and travel
OHIORest & travelSACAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 6 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Ohio (3-2) visited Sacramento State (0-5) on Saturday, October 17 at 10:00 PM ET.
Ohio has the 48th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 116th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Sacramento State has the 134th-ranked offense and the 78th-ranked defense. When Ohio has the ball, a 48th-ranked offense (+0.115 EPA per play) meets a 78th-ranked defense (+0.082 allowed); when Sacramento State has it, a 134th-ranked offense (−0.224) meets a 116th-ranked defense (+0.214 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Ohio offense is at 49.8% (36th) and the Sacramento State offense at 42.5% (111th). Ohio scores 26.0 points per game (70th) and allows 28.2 (85th); Sacramento State scores 9.2 (136th) and allows 36.2 (123rd).
Ohio is 4-2 and 3-3 against the spread; its last game was a 31-14 win over Central Michigan. Sacramento State is 1-5; its last game was a 38-10 loss to Bowling Green.
Ohio closed as a 17.5-point road favorite, with Sacramento State getting the points at home. The spread opened at Ohio -13.5. The total closed at 46.5, down from 49.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Ohio -998, Sacramento State +655) prices Ohio at 87% and Sacramento State at 13%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Ohio Bobcats 48, Sacramento State Hornets 7
Ohio Bobcats won by 41.
- Against the closing spread (Sacramento State Hornets +17.5): Ohio Bobcats covered.
- Combined score 55 vs the closing total of 46.5: Over.
- Ohio Bobcats closed at -998 on the moneyline (a 87% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 4 points toward Ohio Bobcats.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Ohio Bobcats 87%, Sacramento State Hornets 13%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Game DNA
| Ohio | Points added | Sacramento State |
|---|---|---|
| +3.1 | Passingdropbacks | -5.9 |
| +2.9 | Rushingdesigned runs | -0.2 |
| +5.7 | Explosive plays2 plays · 3 plays | +9.1 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 1 giveaways | -5.8 |
| -3.4 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -6.6 |
| +1.2 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -0.7 |
| +10.9 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 5 of 6 · 0 of 1 | -2.6 |
| +20.5 | All plays | -12.8 |
The biggest single gap: red zone, worth about 13.6 points to Ohio Bobcats. The final margin was 41.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
Ohio Bobcats closed as the market favourite at 87% and won.
The line moved toward Ohio Bobcats before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Ohio -13.5 (-110)
Ohio -17.5 (-107)
Sacramento State +482 16%
Sacramento State +655 13%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts50
- Completion %48.0%
- Passing yards293
- Yards per attempt5.9
- TD–INT4–0
- Rushing yards289133rd
- Season line65 carries, 289 yds, 4 TD
- Receiving yards39752nd
- Season line27 catches, 397 yds, 5 TD
- Tackles4929th
- Attempts171
- Completion %55.6%208th
- Passing yards1,001147th
- Yards per attempt5.8231st
- TD–INT6–5
- Rushing yards187265th
- Season line41 carries, 187 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving yards45423rd
- Season line32 catches, 454 yds, 4 TD
- Tackles4286th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 259 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 14, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Ohio | Sacramento State |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateOhio offense vs Sacramento State defense | 43.6%65th | 42.7%58th |
| Early-down success rateSacramento State offense vs Ohio defense | 42.9%65th | 39.8%110th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateOhio offense vs Sacramento State defense | 56.9%5th | 45.5%106th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateSacramento State offense vs Ohio defense | 49.2%120th | 32.7%107th |
| Explosive play rateOhio offense vs Sacramento State defense | 4.6%124th | 9.5%126th |
| Explosive play rateSacramento State offense vs Ohio defense | 6.0%45th | 3.7%136th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 43.3%115th-highest | 61.9%5th-highest |
On 3rd down Ohio converts 56.9% (5th) against a Sacramento State defense allowing 45.5% (106th).
On 3rd down Sacramento State converts 32.7% (107th) against a Ohio defense allowing 49.2% (120th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Ohio | Sacramento State |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | John Hauser | Alonzo Carter |
| Tenureat this school | 2nd season | 1st season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 5–2 | 1–5 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 5–2 | 1–5 |
| Offensive coordinator | Scott Isophording | Eric Kiesau / Eric Scott |
| Defensive coordinator | Kurt Mattix | Adam Clark / Kenwick Thompson |
Staff list as of October 13, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Teams
Ohio Bobcats
- Ohio Bobcats team stats
- Eastern Michigan Eagles 20, Ohio Bobcats 24 (Oct 24)
- Central Michigan Chippewas 14, Ohio Bobcats 31 (Oct 10)
- Ohio Bobcats 13, Kent State Golden Flashes 10 (Oct 3)
Sacramento State Hornets
More NCAAF games on October 17, 2026
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- Ball State Cardinals 32, Bowling Green Falcons 31 (Oct 17)
- Charleston Southern Buccaneers 0, Clemson Tigers 37 (Oct 17)
- Ohio State Buckeyes 19, Indiana Hoosiers 15 (Oct 17)
- Georgia State Panthers 22, James Madison Dukes 49 (Oct 17)
- Kansas Jayhawks 24, Kansas State Wildcats 35 (Oct 17)
- Mississippi State Bulldogs 0, LSU Tigers 31 (Oct 17)
- Northwestern Wildcats 24, Michigan State Spartans 21 (Oct 17)
- Virginia Cavaliers 13, SMU Mustangs 23 (Oct 17)
- Florida Gators 27, Texas Longhorns 24 (Oct 17)
- Cincinnati Bearcats 42, West Virginia Mountaineers 45 (Oct 17)
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights 37, Maryland Terrapins 30 (Oct 17)
- UMass Minutemen 18, Buffalo Bulls 25 (Oct 17)
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