Toledo Rockets vs Eastern Michigan Eagles Final — October 17, 2026
TOLOffense2026 regular season to dateEMU
TOLDefenseEMUTOLRecent formEMUTOLHome and roadseason to dateEMUTOLLast 10 gamesEMURest & travelrest and travel
TOLRest & travelEMUAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 7 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Toledo (3-2) visited Eastern Michigan (3-3) on Saturday, October 17 at 3:30 PM ET.
Toledo has the 41st-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 41st-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Eastern Michigan has the 106th-ranked offense and the 54th-ranked defense. When Toledo has the ball, a 41st-ranked offense (+0.138 EPA per play) meets a 54th-ranked defense (+0.022 allowed); when Eastern Michigan has it, a 106th-ranked offense (−0.038) meets a 41st-ranked defense (−0.018 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Toledo offense is at 46.8% (73rd) and the Eastern Michigan offense at 41.8% (120th). Toledo scores 31.4 points per game (39th) and allows 28.2 (85th); Eastern Michigan scores 21.5 (96th) and allows 28.3 (88th).
Toledo is 4-2 and 2-3-1 against the spread; its last game was a 23-8 loss to Buffalo. Eastern Michigan is 4-3; its last game was a 25-23 win over Akron.
Toledo closed as a 7.5-point road favorite, with Eastern Michigan getting the points at home. The spread opened at Toledo -5.5. The total closed at 51.5, down from 53.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Toledo -290, Eastern Michigan +230) prices Toledo at 71% and Eastern Michigan at 29%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Toledo Rockets 34, Eastern Michigan Eagles 14
Toledo Rockets won by 20.
- Against the closing spread (Eastern Michigan Eagles +7.5): Toledo Rockets covered.
- Combined score 48 vs the closing total of 51.5: Under.
- Toledo Rockets closed at -290 on the moneyline (a 71% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 6 points toward Toledo Rockets.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Toledo Rockets 71%, Eastern Michigan Eagles 29%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 10:54 — Eastern Michigan Eagles ball, 4th & 4 at TOL 35Shotgun #1 N.Kim pass incomplete short right to #3 B.Prosper thrown to TOL28 QB hurried by #52 L.Lambert-Pipkin and #0 A.Zock, TURNOVER ON DOWNSToledo Rockets 69% → 75% (+6 pts) · Drive 1 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 7:50 — Toledo Rockets ball, 2nd & 6 at EMU 28No Huddle #6 J.Richter pass complete deep left to #3 A.Dabbs caught at EMU00, for 28 yards to the EMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:50, 1ST DOWN #93 R.Griffith kick atte…Toledo Rockets 79% → 84% (+5 pts) · Drive 2 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 7:43 — Eastern Michigan Eagles ball, 1st & 10 at EMU 25Shotgun #1 N.Kim sacked for loss of 10 yards to the EMU15 (#0 A.Zock), fumble by #1 N.Kim recovered by TOL #52 L.Lambert-Pipkin at EMU15, End Of PlayToledo Rockets 84% → 90% (+6 pts) · Drive 3 in Drive X-Ray
Game DNA
| Toledo | Points added | Eastern Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| +4.8 | Passingdropbacks | -5.6 |
| -5.1 | Rushingdesigned runs | -14.8 |
| +14.1 | Explosive plays3 plays · 4 plays | +12.9 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| +8.5 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +3.6 |
| -5.5 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +6.0 |
| -2.6 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 3 of 6 · 1 of 2 | -1.4 |
| +14.2 | All plays | +0.7 |
The biggest single gap: penalties, worth about 11.5 points to Eastern Michigan Eagles. The final margin was 20.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
Toledo Rockets closed as the market favourite at 71% and won.
The line moved toward Toledo Rockets before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Toledo -5.5 (-110)
Toledo -7.5 (-105)
Eastern Michigan +171 35%
Eastern Michigan +230 29%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts188
- Completion %63.8%96th
- Passing yards1,56533rd
- Yards per attempt8.363rd
- TD–INT13–1
- Rushing yards38667th
- Season line67 carries, 386 yds, 7 TD
- Receiving yards40246th
- Season line27 catches, 402 yds, 4 TD
- Tackles5121st
- Attempts249
- Completion %61.4%138th
- Passing yards1,46446th
- Yards per attempt5.9226th
- TD–INT9–4
- Rushing yards315112th
- Season line61 carries, 315 yds, 3 TD
- Receiving yards301123rd
- Season line28 catches, 301 yds, 1 TD
- Tackles5121st
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 259 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 14, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Toledo | Eastern Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateToledo offense vs Eastern Michigan defense | 45.0%48th | 42.8%60th |
| Early-down success rateEastern Michigan offense vs Toledo defense | 40.2%34th | 35.6%132nd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateToledo offense vs Eastern Michigan defense | 39.1%81st | 46.5%110th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateEastern Michigan offense vs Toledo defense | 41.1%77th | 43.2%53rd |
| Explosive play rateToledo offense vs Eastern Michigan defense | 7.3%51st | 6.7%67th |
| Explosive play rateEastern Michigan offense vs Toledo defense | 5.5%29th | 4.6%123rd |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 52.5%55th-highest | 56.8%20th-highest |
On 3rd down Toledo converts 39.1% (81st) against a Eastern Michigan defense allowing 46.5% (110th).
On 3rd down Eastern Michigan converts 43.2% (53rd) against a Toledo defense allowing 41.1% (77th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Toledo | Eastern Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Mike Jacobs | Chris Creighton |
| Tenureat this school | 1st season | 13th season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 4–2 | 65–86 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 4–2 | 65–86 |
| Offensive coordinator | Cris Reisert | Mike Piatkowski |
| Defensive coordinator | Jahmal Brown | Tate Omli / Kasey Teegardin |
Staff list as of October 13, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 4 times since 2021: Toledo won 3 and Eastern Michigan 1.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | Toledo 29, Eastern Michigan 28 Toledo won | ||
| Nov 8, 2023 | Eastern Michigan 23, Toledo 49 Toledo won | ||
| Oct 29, 2022 | Toledo 27, Eastern Michigan 24 Toledo won | ||
| Nov 2, 2021 | Eastern Michigan 52, Toledo 49 Eastern Michigan won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Toledo Rockets
- Toledo Rockets team stats
- Western Michigan Broncos 38, Toledo Rockets 45 (Oct 24)
- Buffalo Bulls 23, Toledo Rockets 8 (Oct 10)
- Toledo Rockets 39, Ball State Cardinals 24 (Oct 3)
Eastern Michigan Eagles
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- Virginia Cavaliers 13, SMU Mustangs 23 (Oct 17)
- Florida Gators 27, Texas Longhorns 24 (Oct 17)
- Cincinnati Bearcats 42, West Virginia Mountaineers 45 (Oct 17)
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights 37, Maryland Terrapins 30 (Oct 17)
- UMass Minutemen 18, Buffalo Bulls 25 (Oct 17)
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