Atlanta Falcons vs Green Bay Packers Final — September 24, 2026
Final score and result vs the closing line
Atlanta Falcons 35, Green Bay Packers 14
Atlanta Falcons won by 21.
- Against the closing spread (Green Bay Packers -4.5): Atlanta Falcons covered.
- Combined score 49 vs the closing total of 43: Over.
- Atlanta Falcons closed at +200 on the moneyline (a 32% no-vig market-implied chance).
The pre-game matchup
The Falcons (0-2) visited the Packers (1-1) at Lambeau Field on Thursday, September 24 at 8:15 PM ET in Week 3.
The Falcons have the 32nd-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 10th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Packers have the 29th-ranked offense and the 11th-ranked defense. When the Falcons have the ball, a 32nd-ranked offense (−0.403 EPA per play) meets a 11th-ranked defense (−0.067 allowed); when the Packers have it, a 29th-ranked offense (−0.195) meets a 10th-ranked defense (−0.084 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Falcons offense is at 37.1% (29th) and the Packers offense at 35.9% (30th). Through the air, the Falcons average −0.651 EPA per dropback (32nd) against a Packers pass defense ranked 17th; the Packers average −0.075 (26th) against a Falcons pass defense ranked 14th. The Falcons score 8.0 points per game (32nd) and allow 27.0 (23rd); the Packers score 21.0 (18th) and allow 28.0 (24th).
Jordan Love has a 36.7% success rate (31st of 33 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Cooper Rush's 34.8% (32nd). Per dropback, Love is at −0.075 EPA to Rush's −0.673, with 4 touchdown passes and 1 interception to Rush's 1 and 4.
The Falcons are 0-2 and 0-2 against the spread; their last game was a 34-3 loss to the Panthers. The Packers are 1-1 and 0-2 against the spread; their last game was a 20-17 win over the Jets. Both teams are on a short week.
The Packers closed as 4.5-point favorites at home against the Falcons. The spread opened at Packers -7. The total closed at 43, down from 44.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Falcons +200, Packers -242) prices the Falcons at 32% and the Packers at 68%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Tale of the tape
Falcons2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Quarterback matchup
- Dropbacks46
- Success rate34.8%32nd
- EPA per dropback−0.67333rd
- Completion %56.4%31st
- CPOE−13.432nd
- Yards per attempt5.929th
- TD–INT1–4
- Sack rate10.9%31st
- Dropbacks78
- Success rate36.7%31st
- EPA per dropback−0.07526th
- Completion %52.1%32nd
- CPOE−11.331st
- Yards per attempt7.512th
- TD–INT4–1
- Sack rate9.0%27th
Primary passer = most dropbacks over each team's last four games. Season to date; ranks among 33 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game). Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
Players to watch
Drake London leads the Falcons wide receivers with 80 receiving yards (41st of 85 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 18.0%. Bijan Robinson has 155 rushing yards on 37 carries (7th of 45 qualified running backs). Christian Watson leads the Packers wide receivers with 188 receiving yards (7th of 85 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 27.5%. MarShawn Lloyd has 57 rushing yards on 19 carries (40th of 45 qualified running backs).
- Carries37
- Rush yards1557th
- Yards per carry4.221st
- EPA per rush−0.10722nd
- Rush success rate43.2%15th
- Targets / catches9 / 6
- Receiving yards8041st
- Target share18.0%48th
- Yards per target8.934th
- EPA per target+0.44734th
- Targets / catches4 / 2
- Receiving yards20
- Target share12.9%
- Yards per target5.0
- EPA per target+0.393
- Carries19
- Rush yards5740th
- Yards per carry3.039th
- EPA per rush−0.48045th
- Rush success rate36.8%24th
- Targets / catches19 / 10
- Receiving yards1887th
- Target share27.5%9th
- Yards per target9.926th
- EPA per target+0.16546th
- Targets / catches9 / 5
- Receiving yards8011th
- Target share13.0%21st
- Yards per target8.910th
- EPA per target+0.17520th
Lead back = most carries and lead receivers = most targets over each team's last four games. Season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Falcons | Packers |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateFalcons offense vs Packers defense | 40.2%23rd | 28.4%1st |
| Early-down success ratePackers offense vs Falcons defense | 38.9%6th | 40.9%20th |
| Early-down EPA per playFalcons offense vs Packers defense | −0.27832nd | −0.2541st |
| Early-down EPA per playPackers offense vs Falcons defense | −0.00814th | +0.02814th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateFalcons offense vs Packers defense | 24.0%30th | 48.5%25th |
| 3rd-down conversion ratePackers offense vs Falcons defense | 34.6%11th | 19.0%32nd |
| 3rd-down EPA per playFalcons offense vs Packers defense | −0.85431st | +0.52229th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playPackers offense vs Falcons defense | −0.20612th | −0.81930th |
| Red-zone TD ratePackers offense vs Falcons defense | 50.0%9th | 42.9%25th |
| Red-zone success ratePackers offense vs Falcons defense | 30.0%8th | 38.9%22nd |
On early downs the Falcons succeed on 40.2% of plays (23rd) against a Packers defense that allows 28.4% (1st); on 3rd down they convert 24.0% (30th) against a defense allowing 48.5% (25th). On early downs the Packers succeed on 40.9% of plays (20th) against a Falcons defense that allows 38.9% (6th); on 3rd down they convert 19.0% (32nd) against a defense allowing 34.6% (11th). The Packers score touchdowns on 42.9% of red-zone trips (25th).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Falcons | Packers |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Kevin Stefanski | Matt LaFleur |
| Offensive coordinator | Tommy Rees | Adam Stenavich |
| Defensive coordinator | Jeff Ulbrich | Jonathan Gannon |
| Offense tendencies | Falcons | Packers |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.4% | −14.6%32nd-highest | −2.5%18th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.0% | 52.4%28th-highest | 66.7%7th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 54.7% | 46.4%30th-highest | 60.2%7th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 58.4% | 57.3%19th-highest | 61.5%14th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.2% | 4.8%18th-highest | 11.1%4th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 33.1 | 32.622nd-slowest | 33.317th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.3% | 10.3%28th | 16.9%12th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.6% | 5.2%28th | 11.3%8th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.4% | 8.5%17th | 10.3%12th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.5% | 10.8%29th | 9.0%26th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.85% | 5.64%32nd | 2.56%25th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 59.8 | 62.09th-most | 58.516th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 60.0% | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
| Defense | Falcons | Packers |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.5% | 4.9%24th | 8.9%5th |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.3% | 14.1%12th | 9.9%5th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.6% | 10.3%19th | 2.8%3rd |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.4% | 5.3%5th | 6.0%7th |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.85% | 0.83%26th | 0.77%28th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 16.1% | 14.6%19th | 16.7%14th |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 16.1% | 16.9%19th | 24.4%32nd |
The Falcons run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−14.6% pass rate over expected, 32nd-highest), while the Packers sit at −2.5% (18th-highest). In neutral situations the Falcons take 32.6 seconds between snaps and the Packers 33.3, so the Falcons play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Falcons have gone for it 1 of 2 times and the Packers 2 of 2.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest. Coaching staff: Wikipedia contributors (CC BY-SA 4.0).
Injury report
- Billy Bowman Jr. CBQuestionableAchilles
- Aaron Banks GOutKnee
- Zach Bako-Bewele TOutKnee
Starters (and the primary passer) on the game's official injury report, as of the latest report captured before kickoff.
Travel and schedule
The Falcons have 4 days between games and the Packers 4; both are on a short week. The Falcons travel about 768 miles, moving their body clock 1 hour back.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Recent form and rest
FalconsPackersLast five results this season, oldest to newest. Against-the-spread and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 6 times since 2015: the Falcons won 4 and the Packers 2. In the most recent meeting (September 17, 2023), the Falcons won 25-24; the Falcons averaged +0.115 EPA per play; the Packers averaged +0.052 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 17, 2023 | Packers 24, Falcons 25 Falcons won | Falcons -3 Packers covered | 40.5 over | Falcons +0.115 · Packers +0.052 |
| Oct 5, 2020 | Falcons 16, Packers 30 Packers won | Packers -5 Packers covered | 56.5 under | Falcons +0.038 · Packers +0.288 |
| Dec 9, 2018 | Falcons 20, Packers 34 Packers won | Packers -4 Packers covered | 51 over | Falcons +0.008 · Packers +0.125 |
| Sep 17, 2017 | Packers 23, Falcons 34 Falcons won | Falcons -3.5 Falcons covered | 55 over | Falcons +0.195 · Packers +0.080 |
| Jan 22, 2017 playoffs | Packers 21, Falcons 44 Falcons won | Falcons -6.5 Falcons covered | 59.5 over | Falcons +0.384 · Packers +0.099 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the nflverse closing lines.
Closing line and line movement
Falcons +7 (-110)
Falcons +4.5 (-105)
Packers -330 74%
Packers -242 68%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Dig deeper
Teams
Atlanta Falcons
Green Bay Packers
- Green Bay Packers team stats
- Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Oct 4)
- Green Bay Packers 22, Minnesota Vikings 39 (Sep 13)
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