Cincinnati Bengals vs Atlanta Falcons Final — November 8, 2026
CINStarting quarterbacksexpected startersATL
CINOffense2026 regular season to dateATLCINDefenseATLCINRecent formATLCINHome and roadseason to dateATLInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
CINRest & travelATLCINKey injuriesATLAbout these numbers
Quarterback = expected starter for this game. Season to date; ranks among 35 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game); a starter below that minimum is placed among them. Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
No key players listed out, doubtful or questionable.
Starters (and the primary passer), plus regular contributors playing at least 40% of team snaps, on the game's official injury report captured before kickoff.
The pre-game matchup
The Bengals (5-2) visited the Falcons (3-5) at Bernabeu, a neutral site, on Sunday, November 8 at 9:30 AM ET in Week 9.
The Bengals have the 5th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 15th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Falcons have the 28th-ranked offense and the 10th-ranked defense. When the Bengals have the ball, a 5th-ranked offense (+0.115 EPA per play) meets a 10th-ranked defense (−0.035 allowed); when the Falcons have it, a 28th-ranked offense (−0.095) meets a 15th-ranked defense (−0.008 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Bengals offense is at 50.0% (2nd) and the Falcons offense at 43.0% (14th). Through the air, the Bengals average +0.232 EPA per dropback (5th) against a Falcons pass defense ranked 11th; the Falcons average −0.160 (29th) against a Bengals pass defense ranked 13th. The Bengals score 29.4 points per game (2nd) and allow 22.6 (14th); the Falcons score 21.4 (23rd) and allow 23.6 (17th).
Over the last five games, the Bengals rank 2nd on offense and 25th on defense by EPA per play; the Falcons rank 23rd and 13th.
Joe Burrow has a 55.1% success rate (3rd of 35 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Michael Penix Jr.'s 43.8% (20th). Per dropback, Burrow is at +0.237 EPA to Jr.'s +0.001, with 20 touchdown passes and 6 interceptions to Jr.'s 9 and 5.
The Bengals are 5-2 and 3-3-1 against the spread; their last game was a 43-36 win over the Titans. The Falcons are 3-5 and 3-5 against the spread; their last game was a 16-0 loss to the Buccaneers.
The Bengals closed as 3.5-point favorites over the Falcons at the neutral site. The spread closed where it opened. The total closed at 52.5, up from 50.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Bengals -180, Falcons +150) prices the Bengals at 62% and the Falcons at 38%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Cincinnati Bengals 34, Atlanta Falcons 17
Cincinnati Bengals won by 17.
- Against the closing spread (Atlanta Falcons +3.5): Cincinnati Bengals covered.
- Combined score 51 vs the closing total of 52.5: Under.
- Cincinnati Bengals closed at -180 on the moneyline (a 62% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
The market barely moved from open to close.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Cincinnati Bengals 62%, Atlanta Falcons 38%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 12:31 — Atlanta Falcons ball, 3rd & 1 at CIN 407-B.Robinson left end to CIN 19 for 21 yards (99-M.Murphy; 49-B.Carter).Atlanta Falcons 41% → 46% (+5 pts) · Drive 1 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 8:55 — Cincinnati Bengals ball, 3rd & 2 at ATL 47(Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 1-J.Chase for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Cincinnati Bengals 50% → 61% (+11 pts) · Drive 2 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 7:14 — Atlanta Falcons ball, 3rd & 5 at CIN 40(Shotgun) 9-M.Penix scrambles left tackle to CIN 17 for 23 yards (0-D.Turner).Atlanta Falcons 41% → 47% (+6 pts) · Drive 3 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 14:19 — Cincinnati Bengals ball, 2nd & 10 at ATL 14(Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 1-J.Chase to ATL 1 for 13 yards (31-X.Watts; 24-A.Terrell).Cincinnati Bengals 65% → 70% (+5 pts) · Drive 4 in Drive X-Ray
Game DNA
| Bengals | Points added | Falcons |
|---|---|---|
| +2.6 | Passingdropbacks | -4.5 |
| -4.2 | Rushingdesigned runs | -0.1 |
| +15.0 | Explosive plays8 plays · 8 plays | +14.9 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 1 giveaways | -5.5 |
| +5.0 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -1.7 |
| +1.8 | Penalties6 for 43 yds · 12 for 88 yds | -2.9 |
| +5.5 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 3 of 4 · 2 of 4 | +1.4 |
| +25.8 | All plays | +1.5 |
The biggest single gap: passing, worth about 7.1 points to Cincinnati Bengals. The final margin was 17.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Cincinnati Bengals closed as the market favourite at 62% and won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Bengals -3.5 (-102)
Bengals -3.5 (-101)
Falcons +148 39%
Falcons +150 38%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Matchup
Players to watch
Tee Higgins has 726 receiving yards for the Bengals (2nd of 76 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 23.4%. Chase Brown has 340 rushing yards on 94 carries (24th of 42 qualified running backs). Drake London has 624 receiving yards for the Falcons (6th of 76 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 28.8%. Bijan Robinson has 780 rushing yards on 150 carries (1st of 42 qualified running backs).
- Carries94
- Rush yards34024th
- Yards per carry3.631st
- EPA per rush−0.16631st
- Rush success rate37.2%25th
- Targets / catches61 / 43
- Receiving yards7262nd
- Target share23.4%21st
- Yards per target11.92nd
- EPA per target+0.8662nd
- Targets / catches24 / 17
- Receiving yards24121st
- Target share10.4%33rd
- Yards per target10.02nd
- EPA per target+0.7911st
- Carries150
- Rush yards7801st
- Yards per carry5.24th
- EPA per rush−0.02518th
- Rush success rate44.7%12th
- Targets / catches62 / 39
- Receiving yards6246th
- Target share28.8%8th
- Yards per target10.111th
- EPA per target+0.38429th
- Targets / catches32 / 22
- Receiving yards19727th
- Target share14.9%23rd
- Yards per target6.228th
- EPA per target+0.06228th
Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Bengals | Falcons |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateBengals offense vs Falcons defense | 49.3%3rd | 42.6%13th |
| Early-down success rateFalcons offense vs Bengals defense | 42.3%12th | 44.2%14th |
| Early-down EPA per playBengals offense vs Falcons defense | +0.06611th | −0.0508th |
| Early-down EPA per playFalcons offense vs Bengals defense | −0.02412th | −0.03922nd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateBengals offense vs Falcons defense | 52.9%1st | 41.8%20th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateFalcons offense vs Bengals defense | 47.3%29th | 33.7%29th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playBengals offense vs Falcons defense | +0.2931st | −0.06113th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playFalcons offense vs Bengals defense | +0.20629th | −0.21229th |
| Red-zone TD rateBengals offense vs Falcons defense | 67.9%9th | 63.3%18th |
| Red-zone TD rateFalcons offense vs Bengals defense | 41.7%4th | 63.6%13th |
| Red-zone success rateBengals offense vs Falcons defense | 56.2%1st | 45.7%20th |
| Red-zone success rateFalcons offense vs Bengals defense | 31.0%4th | 45.0%11th |
On early downs the Bengals succeed on 49.3% of plays (3rd) against a Falcons defense that allows 42.6% (13th); on 3rd down they convert 52.9% (1st) against a defense allowing 41.8% (20th). On early downs the Falcons succeed on 44.2% of plays (14th) against a Bengals defense that allows 42.3% (12th); on 3rd down they convert 33.7% (29th) against a defense allowing 47.3% (29th). The Bengals score touchdowns on 67.9% of red-zone trips (9th). The Falcons score touchdowns on 63.6% of red-zone trips (13th).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Bengals | Falcons |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Zac Taylor | Kevin Stefanski |
| Offensive coordinator | Dan Pitcher | Tommy Rees |
| Defensive coordinator | Al Golden | Jeff Ulbrich |
| Offense tendencies | Bengals | Falcons |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.1% | 7.6%1st-highest | −8.2%29th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.4% | 67.4%1st-highest | 53.6%31st-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 54.9% | 63.8%1st-highest | 46.9%31st-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 61.4% | 76.5%2nd-highest | 52.2%27th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.5% | 4.9%20th-highest | 4.7%21st-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 33.0 | 32.325th-slowest | 33.98th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.4% | 18.8%5th | 15.5%16th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.6% | 8.7%17th | 9.0%14th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.5% | 8.6%17th | 9.7%14th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.2% | 4.5%8th | 6.3%19th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.92% | 2.09%19th | 2.98%30th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 61.4 | 61.315th-most | 58.425th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 63.3% | 3 of 8 | 6 of 11 |
| Defense | Bengals | Falcons |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.2% | 8.2%4th | 5.8%18th |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.4% | 18.4%29th | 13.9%11th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.6% | 9.8%22nd | 7.8%11th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.5% | 11.1%26th | 11.8%29th |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.92% | 2.52%6th | 1.93%17th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.6% | 16.5%14th | 17.0%8th |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.6% | 17.6%26th | 10.4%2nd |
The Bengals pass more often than down, distance and score would suggest (7.6% pass rate over expected, 1st-highest), while the Falcons sit at −8.2% (29th-highest). In neutral situations the Bengals take 32.3 seconds between snaps and the Falcons 33.9, so the Bengals play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Bengals have gone for it 3 of 8 times and the Falcons 6 of 11.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 2 times since 2015: the Bengals won 2 and the Falcons 0. In the most recent meeting (October 23, 2022), the Bengals won 35-17; the Falcons averaged +0.015 EPA per play; the Bengals averaged +0.421 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2022 | Falcons 17, Bengals 35 Bengals won | Bengals -6.5 Bengals covered | 47.5 over | Falcons +0.015 · Bengals +0.421 |
| Sep 30, 2018 | Bengals 37, Falcons 36 Bengals won | Falcons -3.5 Bengals covered | 52 over | Falcons +0.234 · Bengals +0.260 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Teams
Cincinnati Bengals
- Cincinnati Bengals team stats
- Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (Nov 15)
- Tennessee Titans 36, Cincinnati Bengals 43 (Nov 1)
- Cincinnati Bengals 35, Baltimore Ravens 13 (Oct 25)
- Cincinnati Bengals 31, Miami Dolphins 24 (Oct 11)
Atlanta Falcons
- Atlanta Falcons team stats
- Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons (Nov 15)
- Atlanta Falcons 0, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16 (Nov 1)
- San Francisco 49ers 20, Atlanta Falcons 29 (Oct 25)
- Chicago Bears 31, Atlanta Falcons 23 (Oct 18)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NFL games on November 8, 2026
- Denver Broncos 26, Carolina Panthers 21 (Nov 8)
- Dallas Cowboys 27, Indianapolis Colts 23 (Nov 8)
- New York Jets 12, Kansas City Chiefs 35 (Nov 8)
- Detroit Lions 19, Miami Dolphins 9 (Nov 8)
- Cleveland Browns 22, New Orleans Saints 23 (Nov 8)
- New York Giants 19, Philadelphia Eagles 11 (Nov 8)
- Los Angeles Rams 20, Washington Commanders 13 (Nov 8)
- Houston Texans 44, Los Angeles Chargers 22 (Nov 8)
- Green Bay Packers 45, New England Patriots 27 (Nov 8)
- Las Vegas Raiders 17, San Francisco 49ers 38 (Nov 8)
- Arizona Cardinals 3, Seattle Seahawks 17 (Nov 8)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24, Chicago Bears 27 (Nov 8)
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