Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Preview & Odds — November 1, 2026

Matchup preview

Built from public team and player data; ranks are league-wide and update daily until kickoff.

Odds and line movement

Consensus of US sportsbooks. The Now column updates from our odds board. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Best available prices on Oct 28

• Falcons +2.5-106Novig
• Buccaneers -2.5+102Novig
• Over 45.5+106Novig
• Under 45.5-108Novig
• Falcons+122Novig
• Buccaneers-125Novig

G&W Line

Players to watch

Drake London has 616 receiving yards for the Falcons (4th of 75 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 29.2%. Bijan Robinson has 704 rushing yards on 131 carries (1st of 39 qualified running backs). Emeka Egbuka has 240 receiving yards for the Buccaneers (52nd of 75 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 26.2%. Bucky Irving has 558 rushing yards on 120 carries (8th of 39 qualified running backs).

Falcons

RB · Bijan Robinson

• Carries131
• Rush yards7041st
• Yards per carry5.44th
• EPA per rush+0.02712th
• Rush success rate46.6%7th

WR · Drake London

• Targets / catches56 / 38
• Receiving yards6164th
• Target share29.2%8th
• Yards per target11.06th
• EPA per target+0.6119th

TE · Kyle Pitts

• Targets / catches27 / 20
• Receiving yards19124th
• Target share14.1%24th
• Yards per target7.117th
• EPA per target+0.25715th

Buccaneers

RB · Bucky Irving

• Carries120
• Rush yards5588th
• Yards per carry4.710th
• EPA per rush+0.03711th
• Rush success rate43.3%12th

WR · Emeka Egbuka

• Targets / catches49 / 28
• Receiving yards24052nd
• Target share26.2%11th
• Yards per target4.973rd
• EPA per target−0.25973rd

TE · Cade Otton

• Targets / catches30 / 19
• Receiving yards18625th
• Target share15.2%20th
• Yards per target6.227th
• EPA per target+0.16026th

Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).

Success by situation

On early downs the Falcons succeed on 45.1% of plays (12th) against a Buccaneers defense that allows 41.0% (6th); on 3rd down they convert 38.6% (20th) against a defense allowing 36.4% (9th). On early downs the Buccaneers succeed on 40.2% of plays (23rd) against a Falcons defense that allows 42.2% (10th); on 3rd down they convert 39.4% (17th) against a defense allowing 43.3% (22nd). The Falcons score touchdowns on 66.7% of red-zone trips (9th). The Buccaneers score touchdowns on 54.5% of red-zone trips (20th).

Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.

Coaching and tendencies

The Falcons run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−6.9% pass rate over expected, 30th-highest), while the Buccaneers sit at −5.6% (28th-highest). In neutral situations the Falcons take 33.9 seconds between snaps and the Buccaneers 33.6, so the Buccaneers play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Falcons have gone for it 2 of 6 times and the Buccaneers 5 of 9.

Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.

EPA rank trend

Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).

Head-to-head

The teams have met 22 times since 2015: the Falcons won 11 and the Buccaneers 11. In the most recent meeting (December 11, 2025), the Falcons won 29-28; the Falcons averaged +0.217 EPA per play; the Buccaneers averaged +0.055 EPA per play.

The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.