Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers Preview & Odds — November 15, 2026
MINStarting quarterbacksexpected startersGB
MINOffense2026 regular season to dateGBMINDefenseGBMINRecent formGBMINHome and roadseason to dateGBInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
MINRest & travelGBMINKey injuriesGBAbout these numbers
Quarterback = expected starter for this game. Season to date; ranks among 34 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game); a starter below that minimum is placed among them. Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Starters (and the primary passer), plus regular contributors playing at least 40% of team snaps, on the game's official injury report captured before kickoff.
Matchup preview
The Vikings (6-2) visit the Packers (6-3) at Lambeau Field on Sunday, November 15 at 1:00 PM ET in Week 10.
The Vikings have the 31st-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 2nd-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Packers have the 12th-ranked offense and the 6th-ranked defense. When the Vikings have the ball, a 31st-ranked offense (−0.162 EPA per play) meets a 6th-ranked defense (−0.076 allowed); when the Packers have it, a 12th-ranked offense (+0.038) meets a 2nd-ranked defense (−0.149 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Vikings offense is at 36.2% (30th) and the Packers offense at 41.1% (24th). Through the air, the Vikings average −0.112 EPA per dropback (27th) against a Packers pass defense ranked 5th; the Packers average +0.185 (6th) against a Vikings pass defense ranked 1st. The Vikings score 18.2 points per game (27th) and allow 14.5 (1st); the Packers score 24.0 (12th) and allow 21.2 (11th).
Over the last five games, the Vikings rank 31st on offense and 4th on defense by EPA per play; the Packers rank 4th and 2nd.
Kirk Cousins has a 48.4% success rate (11th of 34 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Jordan Love's 44.4% (20th). Per dropback, Cousins is at +0.114 EPA to Love's +0.183, with 20 touchdown passes and 8 interceptions to Love's 19 and 6. Kirk Cousins is in line to start in place of Kyler Murray, who is listed as out on the injury report.
The Vikings are 6-2 and 4-4 against the spread; their last game was a 23-6 loss to the Bills. The Packers are 6-3 and 6-3 against the spread; their last game was a 45-27 win over the Patriots.
The Packers are 3-point favorites at home against the Vikings. The spread opened at Packers -4. The total is 42, up from 41.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the moneyline (Vikings +130, Packers -155) prices the Vikings at 42% and the Packers at 58%.
Built from public team and player data; ranks are league-wide and update daily until kickoff.
Market
Odds and line movement
Vikings +4 (-110)
Vikings +3 (-115)
Packers -205 64%
Packers -155 58%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. The Now column updates from our odds board. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Best available prices on Nov 14
- Vikings +3-108BetRivers
- Packers -3+106ProphetX
- Over 42-108BetRivers
- Under 42-108BetMGM
- Vikings+135Hard Rock
- Packers-138Novig
Matchup
Players to watch
Justin Jefferson has 393 receiving yards for the Vikings (30th of 76 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 28.7%. Aaron Jones has 474 rushing yards on 115 carries (16th of 41 qualified running backs). Matthew Golden has 783 receiving yards for the Packers (4th of 76 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 28.0%.
- Carries115
- Rush yards47416th
- Yards per carry4.123rd
- EPA per rush−0.19636th
- Rush success rate34.8%30th
- Targets / catches51 / 31
- Receiving yards39330th
- Target share28.7%8th
- Yards per target7.745th
- EPA per target+0.16952nd
- Targets / catches8 / 7
- Receiving yards54
- Target share9.3%
- Yards per target6.8
- EPA per target+0.414
- Carries25
- Rush yards59
- Yards per carry2.4
- EPA per rush−0.195
- Rush success rate28.0%
- Targets / catches92 / 53
- Receiving yards7834th
- Target share28.0%10th
- Yards per target8.533rd
- EPA per target+0.21140th
- Targets / catches52 / 36
- Receiving yards35114th
- Target share15.8%19th
- Yards per target6.822nd
- EPA per target+0.37610th
Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Vikings | Packers |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateVikings offense vs Packers defense | 34.9%30th | 42.3%14th |
| Early-down success ratePackers offense vs Vikings defense | 38.1%1st | 40.8%25th |
| Early-down EPA per playVikings offense vs Packers defense | −0.13330th | −0.1122nd |
| Early-down EPA per playPackers offense vs Vikings defense | −0.1023rd | +0.00118th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateVikings offense vs Packers defense | 34.3%29th | 42.0%22nd |
| 3rd-down conversion ratePackers offense vs Vikings defense | 31.5%3rd | 38.1%18th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playVikings offense vs Packers defense | −0.23829th | +0.12627th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playPackers offense vs Vikings defense | −0.2905th | +0.02312th |
| Red-zone TD rateVikings offense vs Packers defense | 50.0%26th | 62.5%17th |
| Red-zone TD ratePackers offense vs Vikings defense | 27.8%1st | 55.9%21st |
| Red-zone success rateVikings offense vs Packers defense | 37.0%27th | 50.0%26th |
| Red-zone success ratePackers offense vs Vikings defense | 30.9%3rd | 39.6%22nd |
On early downs the Vikings succeed on 34.9% of plays (30th) against a Packers defense that allows 42.3% (14th); on 3rd down they convert 34.3% (29th) against a defense allowing 42.0% (22nd). On early downs the Packers succeed on 40.8% of plays (25th) against a Vikings defense that allows 38.1% (1st); on 3rd down they convert 38.1% (18th) against a defense allowing 31.5% (3rd). The Vikings score touchdowns on 50.0% of red-zone trips (26th). The Packers score touchdowns on 55.9% of red-zone trips (21st).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Vikings | Packers |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Kevin O'Connell | Matt LaFleur |
| Offensive coordinator | Wes Phillips | Adam Stenavich |
| Defensive coordinator | Brian Flores | Jonathan Gannon |
| Offense tendencies | Vikings | Packers |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.2% | −2.6%20th-highest | 3.7%3rd-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.3% | 59.5%21st-highest | 65.0%4th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 54.8% | 49.7%29th-highest | 59.0%6th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 61.7% | 62.0%17th-highest | 68.2%8th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.5% | 6.5%15th-highest | 8.0%8th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 32.9 | 33.513th-slowest | 33.215th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.4% | 15.8%16th | 16.0%15th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.6% | 8.7%15th | 11.7%2nd |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.4% | 8.4%20th | 7.3%24th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.3% | 8.6%26th | 4.7%9th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.98% | 1.79%12th | 1.80%13th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 61.3 | 55.631st-most | 61.415th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 63.6% | 5 of 8 | 8 of 11 |
| Defense | Vikings | Packers |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.3% | 10.7%1st | 7.0%11th |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.4% | 11.2%3rd | 13.5%9th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.6% | 6.6%4th | 6.7%6th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.4% | 11.1%28th | 9.3%13th |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.98% | 2.50%5th | 3.21%2nd |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.7% | 25.5%1st | 15.3%19th |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.7% | 16.7%20th | 15.8%16th |
The Vikings run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−2.6% pass rate over expected, 20th-highest), while the Packers sit at 3.7% (3rd-highest). In neutral situations the Vikings take 33.5 seconds between snaps and the Packers 33.2, so the Packers play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Vikings have gone for it 5 of 8 times and the Packers 8 of 11.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 23 times since 2015: the Vikings won 13 and the Packers 9, with 1 tie. In the most recent meeting (September 13, 2026), the Vikings won 39-22; the Packers averaged −0.175 EPA per play; the Vikings averaged −0.020 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | Packers 22, Vikings 39 Vikings won | Vikings -1.5 Vikings covered | 46.5 over | Packers −0.175 · Vikings −0.020 |
| Jan 4, 2026 | Packers 3, Vikings 16 Vikings won | Vikings -12.5 Vikings covered | 37.5 under | Packers −0.329 · Vikings −0.043 |
| Nov 23, 2025 | Vikings 6, Packers 23 Packers won | Packers -6.5 Packers covered | 41.5 under | Packers +0.025 · Vikings −0.429 |
| Dec 29, 2024 | Packers 25, Vikings 27 Vikings won | Packers -1 Vikings covered | 49 over | Packers −0.030 · Vikings +0.092 |
| Sep 29, 2024 | Vikings 31, Packers 29 Vikings won | Packers -2.5 Vikings covered | 44 over | Packers −0.124 · Vikings +0.033 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Result
After the final: score vs the closing line, Drive X-Ray and the graded official play, if there was one, appear here on this same page.
Teams
Minnesota Vikings
- Minnesota Vikings team stats
- Buffalo Bills 23, Minnesota Vikings 6 (Nov 9)
- Minnesota Vikings 15, Detroit Lions 19 (Nov 1)
- Indianapolis Colts 10, Minnesota Vikings 16 (Oct 25)
Green Bay Packers
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