Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots Final — November 8, 2026
GBStarting quarterbacksexpected startersNE
GBOffense2026 regular season to dateNEGBDefenseNEGBRecent formNEGBHome and roadseason to dateNEInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
GBRest & travelNEGBKey injuriesNEAbout these numbers
Quarterback = expected starter for this game. Season to date; ranks among 35 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game); a starter below that minimum is placed among them. Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Starters (and the primary passer), plus regular contributors playing at least 40% of team snaps, on the game's official injury report captured before kickoff.
The pre-game matchup
The Packers (5-3) visited the Patriots (5-3) at Gillette Stadium on Sunday, November 8 at 4:25 PM ET in Week 9.
The Packers have the 17th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 7th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Patriots have the 8th-ranked offense and the 16th-ranked defense. When the Packers have the ball, a 17th-ranked offense (+0.005 EPA per play) meets a 16th-ranked defense (+0.009 allowed); when the Patriots have it, a 8th-ranked offense (+0.064) meets a 7th-ranked defense (−0.069 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Packers offense is at 40.4% (27th) and the Patriots offense at 45.8% (11th). Through the air, the Packers average +0.127 EPA per dropback (13th) against a Patriots pass defense ranked 19th; the Patriots average +0.210 (6th) against a Packers pass defense ranked 5th. The Packers score 21.4 points per game (23rd) and allow 20.5 (10th); the Patriots score 23.0 (16th) and allow 20.2 (9th).
Over the last five games, the Packers rank 9th on offense and 3rd on defense by EPA per play; the Patriots rank 1st and 21st.
Drake Maye has a 51.9% success rate (5th of 35 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Jordan Love's 43.1% (22nd). Per dropback, Maye is at +0.213 EPA to Love's +0.124, with 15 touchdown passes and 8 interceptions to Love's 16 and 6.
The Packers are 5-3 and 5-3 against the spread; their last game was a 27-19 win over the Panthers. The Patriots are 5-3 and 3-3-2 against the spread; their last game was a 24-19 win over the Dolphins.
The Patriots closed as 3-point favorites at home against the Packers. The spread opened at Patriots -2.5. The total closed at 44.5, down from 47.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Packers +150, Patriots -179) prices the Packers at 38% and the Patriots at 62%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Green Bay Packers 45, New England Patriots 27
Green Bay Packers won by 18.
- Against the closing spread (New England Patriots -3): Green Bay Packers covered.
- Combined score 72 vs the closing total of 44.5: Over.
- Green Bay Packers closed at +150 on the moneyline (a 38% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 6 points toward New England Patriots.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Green Bay Packers 38%, New England Patriots 62%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 14:32 — New England Patriots ball, 2nd & 9 at NE 2610-D.Maye pass deep left intended for 13-M.Hollins INTERCEPTED by 29-X.McKinney at 50. 29-X.McKinney pushed ob at NE 14 for 36 yards (65-M.Pryor).Green Bay Packers 40% → 53% (+13 pts) · Drive 1 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 10:50 — Green Bay Packers ball, 1st & 10 at GB 33(No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 0-M.Golden to NE 18 for 49 yards (31-K.Byard).Green Bay Packers 65% → 71% (+6 pts) · Drive 4 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 9:30 — New England Patriots ball, 3rd & 10 at GB 30(Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep left to 38-R.Stevenson for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.New England Patriots 15% → 24% (+8 pts) · Drive 9 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 5:47 — New England Patriots ball, 2nd & 7 at GB 44(Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left intended for 82-E.Raridon INTERCEPTED by 29-X.McKinney at GB 29. 29-X.McKinney to GB 31 for 2 yards (85-H.Henry).Green Bay Packers 69% → 79% (+9 pts) · Drive 11 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 1:52 — Green Bay Packers ball, 4th & 3 at NE 43(Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short middle to 83-S.Williams (0-C.Gonzalez). NE-7-C.Davis was injured during the play.New England Patriots 21% → 28% (+7 pts) · Drive 14 in Drive X-Ray
Green Bay Packers won after falling as low as 38% (Q1 15:00).
Game DNA
| Packers | Points added | Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| -2.0 | Passingdropbacks | -11.9 |
| -7.9 | Rushingdesigned runs | -2.7 |
| +25.6 | Explosive plays11 plays · 13 plays | +21.9 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 4 giveaways | -17.2 |
| +3.5 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +4.7 |
| +2.0 | Penalties3 for 14 yds · 5 for 31 yds | +1.2 |
| +3.1 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 4 of 5 · 2 of 2 | +1.6 |
| +24.3 | All plays | -2.5 |
The biggest single gap: turnovers, worth about 17.2 points to Green Bay Packers. The final margin was 18.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
New England Patriots closed as the market favourite at 62% and lost.
The line moved toward New England Patriots before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Packers +2.5 (-110)
Packers +3 (+100)
Patriots -139 56%
Patriots -179 62%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Matchup
Players to watch
Matthew Golden has 619 receiving yards for the Packers (7th of 76 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 27.2%. DeMario Douglas has 332 receiving yards for the Patriots (34th of 76 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 16.2%. Rhamondre Stevenson has 367 rushing yards on 96 carries (22nd of 42 qualified running backs).
- Carries32
- Rush yards75
- Yards per carry2.3
- EPA per rush−0.153
- Rush success rate37.5%
- Targets / catches82 / 43
- Receiving yards6197th
- Target share27.2%10th
- Yards per target7.548th
- EPA per target+0.07658th
- Targets / catches49 / 35
- Receiving yards35010th
- Target share16.2%18th
- Yards per target7.120th
- EPA per target+0.4428th
- Carries96
- Rush yards36722nd
- Yards per carry3.828th
- EPA per rush−0.05420th
- Rush success rate39.6%22nd
- Targets / catches37 / 26
- Receiving yards33234th
- Target share16.2%54th
- Yards per target9.025th
- EPA per target+0.5728th
- Targets / catches34 / 29
- Receiving yards32612th
- Target share14.9%22nd
- Yards per target9.64th
- EPA per target+0.5545th
Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Packers | Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success ratePackers offense vs Patriots defense | 39.7%26th | 43.9%21st |
| Early-down success ratePatriots offense vs Packers defense | 42.1%9th | 44.9%12th |
| Early-down EPA per playPackers offense vs Patriots defense | −0.05424th | +0.01114th |
| Early-down EPA per playPatriots offense vs Packers defense | −0.1032nd | +0.04713th |
| 3rd-down conversion ratePackers offense vs Patriots defense | 38.7%18th | 38.1%10th |
| 3rd-down conversion ratePatriots offense vs Packers defense | 41.8%20th | 41.2%12th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playPackers offense vs Patriots defense | +0.02710th | −0.03015th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playPatriots offense vs Packers defense | +0.11926th | −0.06616th |
| Red-zone TD ratePackers offense vs Patriots defense | 53.6%22nd | 56.5%12th |
| Red-zone TD ratePatriots offense vs Packers defense | 60.0%14th | 52.2%24th |
| Red-zone success ratePackers offense vs Patriots defense | 41.4%18th | 38.8%9th |
| Red-zone success ratePatriots offense vs Packers defense | 50.0%26th | 42.9%17th |
On early downs the Packers succeed on 39.7% of plays (26th) against a Patriots defense that allows 43.9% (21st); on 3rd down they convert 38.7% (18th) against a defense allowing 38.1% (10th). On early downs the Patriots succeed on 44.9% of plays (12th) against a Packers defense that allows 42.1% (9th); on 3rd down they convert 41.2% (12th) against a defense allowing 41.8% (20th). The Packers score touchdowns on 53.6% of red-zone trips (22nd). The Patriots score touchdowns on 52.2% of red-zone trips (24th).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Packers | Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Matt LaFleur | Mike Vrabel |
| Offensive coordinator | Adam Stenavich | Josh McDaniels |
| Defensive coordinator | Jonathan Gannon | Zak Kuhr |
| Offense tendencies | Packers | Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.1% | 3.9%3rd-highest | −1.3%14th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.4% | 66.9%2nd-highest | 58.4%21st-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 54.9% | 60.3%4th-highest | 53.2%20th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 61.4% | 70.3%6th-highest | 58.9%19th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.5% | 8.2%7th-highest | 0.4%32nd-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 33.0 | 33.117th-slowest | 33.215th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.4% | 15.0%18th | 19.5%3rd |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.6% | 10.5%6th | 10.2%7th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.5% | 6.8%25th | 8.5%18th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.2% | 4.3%7th | 5.7%13th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.92% | 2.04%17th | 3.09%31st |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 61.4 | 61.117th-most | 60.520th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 63.3% | 8 of 10 | 6 of 8 |
| Defense | Packers | Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.2% | 6.8%12th | 7.6%6th |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.4% | 12.4%6th | 15.4%17th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.6% | 5.0%2nd | 9.4%19th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.5% | 8.0%9th | 9.5%17th |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.92% | 2.83%3rd | 1.70%20th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.6% | 15.0%19th | 16.7%12th |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.6% | 16.2%19th | 14.2%9th |
The Packers pass more often than down, distance and score would suggest (3.9% pass rate over expected, 3rd-highest), while the Patriots sit at −1.3% (14th-highest). In neutral situations the Packers take 33.1 seconds between snaps and the Patriots 33.2, so the Packers play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Packers have gone for it 8 of 10 times and the Patriots 6 of 8.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 2 times since 2015: the Packers won 1 and the Patriots 1. In the most recent meeting (October 2, 2022), the Packers won 27-24; the Packers averaged +0.012 EPA per play; the Patriots averaged +0.023 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2022 | Patriots 24, Packers 27 Packers won | Packers -10 Patriots covered | 40.5 over | Packers +0.012 · Patriots +0.023 |
| Nov 4, 2018 | Packers 17, Patriots 31 Patriots won | Patriots -5 Patriots covered | 56 under | Packers +0.030 · Patriots +0.174 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Teams
Green Bay Packers
- Green Bay Packers team stats
- Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (Nov 15)
- Carolina Panthers 19, Green Bay Packers 27 (Oct 29)
- Green Bay Packers 17, Detroit Lions 20 (Oct 25)
- Dallas Cowboys 13, Green Bay Packers 23 (Oct 18)
New England Patriots
- New England Patriots team stats
- New England Patriots at Detroit Lions (Nov 15)
- New England Patriots 24, Miami Dolphins 19 (Nov 1)
- New England Patriots 24, Chicago Bears 30 (Oct 22)
- New York Jets 19, New England Patriots 26 (Oct 18)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NFL games on November 8, 2026
- Cincinnati Bengals 34, Atlanta Falcons 17 (Nov 8)
- Denver Broncos 26, Carolina Panthers 21 (Nov 8)
- Dallas Cowboys 27, Indianapolis Colts 23 (Nov 8)
- New York Jets 12, Kansas City Chiefs 35 (Nov 8)
- Detroit Lions 19, Miami Dolphins 9 (Nov 8)
- Cleveland Browns 22, New Orleans Saints 23 (Nov 8)
- New York Giants 19, Philadelphia Eagles 11 (Nov 8)
- Los Angeles Rams 20, Washington Commanders 13 (Nov 8)
- Houston Texans 44, Los Angeles Chargers 22 (Nov 8)
- Las Vegas Raiders 17, San Francisco 49ers 38 (Nov 8)
- Arizona Cardinals 3, Seattle Seahawks 17 (Nov 8)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24, Chicago Bears 27 (Nov 8)
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