Kansas City Chiefs vs Atlanta Falcons Preview & Odds — November 15, 2026

Matchup preview

Built from public team and player data; ranks are league-wide and update daily until kickoff.

Odds and line movement

Consensus of US sportsbooks. The Now column updates from our odds board. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Best available prices on Nov 14

• Chiefs -3-115Fanatics
• Falcons +3+101Caesars
• Over 47-112BetMGM
• Under 47-105BetMGM
• Chiefs-167Novig
• Falcons+163Novig

Players to watch

Xavier Worthy has 278 receiving yards for the Chiefs (56th of 76 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 19.1%. Kenneth Walker III has 872 rushing yards on 159 carries (2nd of 41 qualified running backs). Drake London has 692 receiving yards for the Falcons (8th of 76 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 27.7%. Bijan Robinson has 880 rushing yards on 169 carries (1st of 41 qualified running backs).

Chiefs

RB · Kenneth Walker III · Questionable

• Carries159
• Rush yards8722nd
• Yards per carry5.52nd
• EPA per rush+0.0855th
• Rush success rate46.5%5th

WR · Xavier Worthy

• Targets / catches47 / 33
• Receiving yards27856th
• Target share19.1%40th
• Yards per target5.969th
• EPA per target+0.01067th

TE · Travis Kelce

• Targets / catches48 / 33
• Receiving yards4824th
• Target share19.5%8th
• Yards per target10.02nd
• EPA per target+0.5385th

Falcons

RB · Bijan Robinson

• Carries169
• Rush yards8801st
• Yards per carry5.24th
• EPA per rush0.00011th
• Rush success rate44.4%10th

WR · Drake London

• Targets / catches67 / 44
• Receiving yards6928th
• Target share27.7%11th
• Yards per target10.39th
• EPA per target+0.45817th

TE · Kyle Pitts

• Targets / catches37 / 25
• Receiving yards22029th
• Target share15.3%20th
• Yards per target5.929th
• EPA per target+0.01527th

Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).

Success by situation

On early downs the Chiefs succeed on 49.2% of plays (4th) against a Falcons defense that allows 43.6% (20th); on 3rd down they convert 42.1% (9th) against a defense allowing 43.3% (24th). On early downs the Falcons succeed on 44.4% of plays (13th) against a Chiefs defense that allows 40.1% (5th); on 3rd down they convert 35.2% (27th) against a defense allowing 36.7% (10th). The Chiefs score touchdowns on 63.3% of red-zone trips (13th). The Falcons score touchdowns on 61.5% of red-zone trips (14th).

Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.

Coaching and tendencies

The Chiefs pass more often than down, distance and score would suggest (4.4% pass rate over expected, 2nd-highest), while the Falcons sit at −7.7% (29th-highest). In neutral situations the Chiefs take 32.2 seconds between snaps and the Falcons 33.9, so the Chiefs play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Chiefs have gone for it 10 of 16 times and the Falcons 6 of 11.

Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.

EPA rank trend

Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).

Head-to-head

The teams have met 3 times since 2015: the Chiefs won 3 and the Falcons 0. In the most recent meeting (September 22, 2024), the Chiefs won 22-17; the Falcons averaged −0.100 EPA per play; the Chiefs averaged +0.099 EPA per play.

The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.