Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns Final — October 1, 2026
Final score and result vs the closing line
Pittsburgh Steelers 24, Cleveland Browns 27
Cleveland Browns won by 3.
The pre-game matchup
The Steelers (2-1) visited the Browns (2-1) at Huntington Bank Field on Thursday, October 1 at 8:15 PM ET in Week 4.
The Steelers have the 30th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 12th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Browns have the 22nd-ranked offense and the 17th-ranked defense. When the Steelers have the ball, a 30th-ranked offense (−0.169 EPA per play) meets a 17th-ranked defense (−0.003 allowed); when the Browns have it, a 22nd-ranked offense (−0.060) meets a 12th-ranked defense (−0.037 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Steelers offense is at 39.1% (27th) and the Browns offense at 41.5% (21st). Through the air, the Steelers average −0.221 EPA per dropback (30th) against a Browns pass defense ranked 17th; the Browns average +0.090 (16th) against a Steelers pass defense ranked 9th. The Steelers score 17.7 points per game (26th) and allow 20.0 (11th); the Browns score 18.0 (24th) and allow 23.7 (18th).
Deshaun Watson has a 47.7% success rate (14th of 34 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Aaron Rodgers' 42.6% (25th). Per dropback, Watson is at +0.086 EPA to Rodgers' −0.202, with 5 touchdown passes and 1 interception to Rodgers' 4 and 2.
The Steelers are 2-1 and 2-1 against the spread; their last game was a 30-27 win over the Bengals. The Browns are 2-1 and 2-1 against the spread; their last game was a 21-18 win over the Panthers. Both teams are on a short week.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Tale of the tape
Steelers2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Quarterback matchup
- Dropbacks122
- Success rate42.6%25th
- EPA per dropback−0.20231st
- Completion %58.9%29th
- CPOE−2.426th
- Yards per attempt6.228th
- TD–INT4–2
- Sack rate6.6%20th
- Dropbacks102
- Success rate47.7%14th
- EPA per dropback+0.08617th
- Completion %68.3%11th
- CPOE+0.323rd
- Yards per attempt7.217th
- TD–INT5–1
- Sack rate8.8%29th
Primary passer = most dropbacks over each team's last four games. Season to date; ranks among 34 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game). Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
Players to watch
DK Metcalf leads the Steelers wide receivers with 98 receiving yards (59th of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 22.9%. Jaylen Warren has 216 rushing yards on 38 carries (8th of 44 qualified running backs). KC Concepcion leads the Browns wide receivers with 80 receiving yards (68th of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 24.4%. Quinshon Judkins has 124 rushing yards on 42 carries (30th of 44 qualified running backs).
- Carries38
- Rush yards2168th
- Yards per carry5.73rd
- EPA per rush−0.00513th
- Rush success rate39.5%23rd
- Targets / catches24 / 11
- Receiving yards9859th
- Target share22.9%31st
- Yards per target4.182nd
- EPA per target−0.25776th
- Targets / catches14 / 11
- Receiving yards10816th
- Target share13.3%23rd
- Yards per target7.712th
- EPA per target+0.20421st
- Carries42
- Rush yards12430th
- Yards per carry3.041st
- EPA per rush−0.35642nd
- Rush success rate26.2%42nd
- Targets / catches20 / 12
- Receiving yards8068th
- Target share24.4%23rd
- Yards per target4.083rd
- EPA per target−0.17471st
- Targets / catches18 / 14
- Receiving yards1269th
- Target share22.0%7th
- Yards per target7.020th
- EPA per target+0.5109th
Lead back = most carries and lead receivers = most targets over each team's last four games. Season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Steelers | Browns |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateSteelers offense vs Browns defense | 40.7%22nd | 45.1%19th |
| Early-down success rateBrowns offense vs Steelers defense | 46.8%25th | 43.0%17th |
| Early-down EPA per playSteelers offense vs Browns defense | −0.10025th | +0.09929th |
| Early-down EPA per playBrowns offense vs Steelers defense | −0.04610th | −0.04621st |
| 3rd-down conversion rateSteelers offense vs Browns defense | 33.3%26th | 40.0%14th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateBrowns offense vs Steelers defense | 33.3%6th | 30.6%30th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playSteelers offense vs Browns defense | −0.38831st | −0.07813th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playBrowns offense vs Steelers defense | −0.2639th | −0.17224th |
| Red-zone TD rateSteelers offense vs Browns defense | 33.3%29th | 50.0%9th |
| Red-zone TD rateBrowns offense vs Steelers defense | 33.3%4th | 37.5%28th |
| Red-zone success rateSteelers offense vs Browns defense | 29.4%29th | 50.0%27th |
| Red-zone success rateBrowns offense vs Steelers defense | 42.9%14th | 26.1%31st |
On early downs the Steelers succeed on 40.7% of plays (22nd) against a Browns defense that allows 45.1% (19th); on 3rd down they convert 33.3% (26th) against a defense allowing 40.0% (14th). On early downs the Browns succeed on 43.0% of plays (17th) against a Steelers defense that allows 46.8% (25th); on 3rd down they convert 30.6% (30th) against a defense allowing 33.3% (6th). The Steelers score touchdowns on 33.3% of red-zone trips (29th). The Browns score touchdowns on 37.5% of red-zone trips (28th).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Steelers | Browns |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Mike McCarthy | Todd Monken |
| Offensive coordinator | Brian Angelichio | Travis Switzer |
| Defensive coordinator | Patrick Graham | Mike Rutenberg |
| Offense tendencies | Steelers | Browns |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.1% | 4.2%4th-highest | −0.4%11th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.4% | 67.9%3rd-highest | 63.4%9th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 54.9% | 62.8%4th-highest | 57.9%9th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 58.8% | 65.2%13th-highest | 68.1%6th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.1% | 10.3%5th-highest | 2.5%27th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 33.0 | 33.016th-slowest | 30.629th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.3% | 12.8%24th | 10.6%29th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.6% | 7.7%22nd | 7.4%24th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.2% | 10.2%13th | 6.7%23rd |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.0% | 6.4%19th | 8.7%30th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.90% | 2.17%19th | 1.22%15th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 60.6 | 61.313th-most | 54.329th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 62.7% | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 |
| Defense | Steelers | Browns |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.0% | 8.6%4th | 6.1%18th |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.3% | 16.5%22nd | 15.7%17th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.6% | 12.9%30th | 9.3%17th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.2% | 11.3%24th | 16.4%32nd |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.90% | 3.05%5th | 1.06%24th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.8% | 18.3%7th | 14.0%19th |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.8% | 16.8%20th | 18.4%25th |
The Steelers pass more often than down, distance and score would suggest (4.2% pass rate over expected, 4th-highest), while the Browns sit at −0.4% (11th-highest). In neutral situations the Steelers take 33.0 seconds between snaps and the Browns 30.6, so the Browns play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Steelers have gone for it 1 of 1 times and the Browns 3 of 3.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest. Coaching staff: Wikipedia contributors (CC BY-SA 4.0).
Injury report
No starters listed out, doubtful or questionable.
No starters listed out, doubtful or questionable.
Starters (and the primary passer) on the game's official injury report, as of the latest report captured before kickoff.
Travel and schedule
The Steelers have 4 days between games and the Browns 4; both are on a short week. The Steelers travel about 114 miles.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Recent form and rest
SteelersBrownsLast five results this season, oldest to newest. Against-the-spread and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 23 times since 2015: the Steelers won 15 and the Browns 7, with 1 tie. In the most recent meeting (December 28, 2025), the Browns won 13-6; the Browns averaged −0.234 EPA per play; the Steelers averaged −0.204 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28, 2025 | Steelers 6, Browns 13 Browns won | Steelers -4.5 Browns covered | 35.5 under | Browns −0.234 · Steelers −0.204 |
| Oct 12, 2025 | Browns 9, Steelers 23 Steelers won | Steelers -5.5 Steelers covered | 37.5 under | Browns −0.185 · Steelers +0.130 |
| Dec 8, 2024 | Browns 14, Steelers 27 Steelers won | Steelers -6 Steelers covered | 43 under | Browns −0.162 · Steelers −0.105 |
| Nov 21, 2024 | Steelers 19, Browns 24 Browns won | Steelers -3.5 Browns covered | 36.5 over | Browns +0.005 · Steelers −0.037 |
| Nov 19, 2023 | Steelers 10, Browns 13 Browns won | Browns -2.5 Browns covered | 34 under | Browns −0.139 · Steelers −0.107 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the nflverse closing lines.
Closing line and line movement
Steelers -2.5 (-117)
Browns +123 43%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Dig deeper
Teams
Pittsburgh Steelers
- Pittsburgh Steelers team stats
- Cincinnati Bengals 27, Pittsburgh Steelers 30 (Sep 27)
- Pittsburgh Steelers 3, New England Patriots 20 (Sep 20)
Cleveland Browns
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