Houston Texans vs Cleveland Browns Preview & Odds — November 15, 2026
HOUStarting quarterbacksexpected startersCLE
HOUOffense2026 regular season to dateCLEHOUDefenseCLEHOURecent formCLEHOUHome and roadseason to dateCLEInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
HOURest & travelCLEHOUKey injuriesCLEAbout these numbers
Quarterback = expected starter for this game. Season to date; ranks among 34 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game); a starter below that minimum is placed among them. Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Starters (and the primary passer), plus regular contributors playing at least 40% of team snaps, on the game's official injury report captured before kickoff.
Matchup preview
The Texans (3-5) visit the Browns (5-4) at Huntington Bank Field on Sunday, November 15 at 1:00 PM ET in Week 10.
The Texans have the 8th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 16th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Browns have the 26th-ranked offense and the 12th-ranked defense. When the Texans have the ball, a 8th-ranked offense (+0.060 EPA per play) meets a 12th-ranked defense (−0.020 allowed); when the Browns have it, a 26th-ranked offense (−0.084) meets a 16th-ranked defense (+0.003 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Texans offense is at 42.9% (15th) and the Browns offense at 41.3% (22nd). Through the air, the Texans average +0.178 EPA per dropback (7th) against a Browns pass defense ranked 9th; the Browns average −0.007 (22nd) against a Texans pass defense ranked 17th. The Texans score 26.1 points per game (9th) and allow 24.0 (18th); the Browns score 17.9 (29th) and allow 21.8 (13th).
Over the last five games, the Texans rank 2nd on offense and 17th on defense by EPA per play; the Browns rank 27th and 13th.
C.J. Stroud has a 48.4% success rate (10th of 34 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Deshaun Watson's 46.0% (16th). Per dropback, Stroud is at +0.188 EPA to Watson's −0.006, with 16 touchdown passes and 2 interceptions to Watson's 7 and 3.
The Texans are 3-5 and 3-5 against the spread; their last game was a 44-22 win over the Chargers. The Browns are 5-4 and 6-3 against the spread; their last game was a 23-22 loss to the Saints.
The Texans are 4.5-point road favorites, with the Browns getting the points at home. The spread has not moved since it opened. The total is 40.5, up from 39.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the moneyline (Texans -235, Browns +192) prices the Texans at 67% and the Browns at 33%.
Built from public team and player data; ranks are league-wide and update daily until kickoff.
Market
Odds and line movement
Texans -4.5 (-109)
Texans -4.5 (-114)
Browns +165 36%
Browns +192 33%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. The Now column updates from our odds board. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Best available prices on Nov 14
- Texans -4.5+100Novig
- Browns +4.5-102Novig
- Over 40.5-105FanDuel
- Under 40.5+102Novig
- Texans-208Novig
- Browns+203Novig
Matchup
Players to watch
Nico Collins has 384 receiving yards for the Texans (32nd of 76 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 20.2%. Woody Marks has 341 rushing yards on 95 carries (28th of 41 qualified running backs). Denzel Boston has 507 receiving yards for the Browns (20th of 76 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 21.7%. Quinshon Judkins has 385 rushing yards on 116 carries (24th of 41 qualified running backs).
- Carries95
- Rush yards34128th
- Yards per carry3.633rd
- EPA per rush−0.14129th
- Rush success rate34.7%32nd
- Targets / catches39 / 28
- Receiving yards38432nd
- Target share20.2%34th
- Yards per target9.813th
- EPA per target+0.6663rd
- Targets / catches47 / 35
- Receiving yards36410th
- Target share17.5%12th
- Yards per target7.715th
- EPA per target+0.26417th
- Carries116
- Rush yards38524th
- Yards per carry3.337th
- EPA per rush−0.24737th
- Rush success rate30.2%38th
- Targets / catches60 / 32
- Receiving yards50720th
- Target share21.7%29th
- Yards per target8.434th
- EPA per target+0.16654th
- Targets / catches53 / 37
- Receiving yards4535th
- Target share19.2%9th
- Yards per target8.510th
- EPA per target+0.33711th
Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Texans | Browns |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateTexans offense vs Browns defense | 42.3%19th | 42.2%12th |
| Early-down success rateBrowns offense vs Texans defense | 39.8%4th | 42.6%16th |
| Early-down EPA per playTexans offense vs Browns defense | +0.0859th | +0.01819th |
| Early-down EPA per playBrowns offense vs Texans defense | −0.01613th | −0.03420th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateTexans offense vs Browns defense | 40.2%14th | 39.7%16th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateBrowns offense vs Texans defense | 39.0%15th | 34.5%28th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playTexans offense vs Browns defense | +0.0739th | −0.10112th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playBrowns offense vs Texans defense | +0.06722nd | −0.12822nd |
| Red-zone TD rateTexans offense vs Browns defense | 58.1%17th | 50.0%9th |
| Red-zone TD rateBrowns offense vs Texans defense | 66.7%21st | 42.9%31st |
| Red-zone success rateTexans offense vs Browns defense | 39.5%24th | 40.4%13th |
| Red-zone success rateBrowns offense vs Texans defense | 41.5%16th | 35.4%30th |
On early downs the Texans succeed on 42.3% of plays (19th) against a Browns defense that allows 42.2% (12th); on 3rd down they convert 40.2% (14th) against a defense allowing 39.7% (16th). On early downs the Browns succeed on 42.6% of plays (16th) against a Texans defense that allows 39.8% (4th); on 3rd down they convert 34.5% (28th) against a defense allowing 39.0% (15th). The Texans score touchdowns on 58.1% of red-zone trips (17th). The Browns score touchdowns on 42.9% of red-zone trips (31st).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Texans | Browns |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | DeMeco Ryans | Todd Monken |
| Offensive coordinator | Nick Caley | Travis Switzer |
| Defensive coordinator | Matt Burke | Mike Rutenberg |
| Offense tendencies | Texans | Browns |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.2% | −1.0%14th-highest | −0.9%12th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.3% | 63.2%11th-highest | 64.5%6th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 54.8% | 59.0%5th-highest | 59.1%4th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 61.7% | 68.9%7th-highest | 77.2%1st-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.5% | 4.5%19th-highest | 4.2%22nd-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 32.9 | 33.116th-slowest | 32.027th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.4% | 19.2%4th | 14.4%21st |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.6% | 11.0%6th | 9.9%8th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.4% | 7.8%22nd | 6.2%28th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.3% | 5.2%10th | 10.8%32nd |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.98% | 0.82%1st | 1.83%14th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 61.3 | 61.017th-most | 60.618th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 63.6% | 6 of 13 | 6 of 8 |
| Defense | Texans | Browns |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.3% | 9.2%2nd | 7.7%6th |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.4% | 19.8%31st | 14.2%11th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.6% | 11.3%32nd | 8.4%14th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.4% | 8.7%12th | 15.0%32nd |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.98% | 1.56%24th | 1.94%17th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.7% | 17.0%7th | 16.7%11th |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.7% | 13.3%6th | 21.4%32nd |
The Texans run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−1.0% pass rate over expected, 14th-highest), while the Browns sit at −0.9% (12th-highest). In neutral situations the Texans take 33.1 seconds between snaps and the Browns 32.0, so the Browns play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Texans have gone for it 6 of 13 times and the Browns 6 of 8.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 7 times since 2015: the Texans won 3 and the Browns 4. In the most recent meeting (January 13, 2024), the Texans won 45-14; the Browns averaged −0.307 EPA per play; the Texans averaged +0.248 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2024 playoffs | Browns 14, Texans 45 Texans won | Browns -2.5 Texans covered | 45 over | Browns −0.307 · Texans +0.248 |
| Dec 24, 2023 | Browns 36, Texans 22 Browns won | Browns -3 Browns covered | 40 over | Browns +0.113 · Texans −0.268 |
| Dec 4, 2022 | Browns 27, Texans 14 Browns won | Browns -7.5 Browns covered | 47 under | Browns −0.232 · Texans −0.444 |
| Sep 19, 2021 | Texans 21, Browns 31 Browns won | Browns -13.5 Texans covered | 48.5 over | Browns +0.149 · Texans +0.096 |
| Nov 15, 2020 | Texans 7, Browns 10 Browns won | Browns -4.5 Texans covered | 46 under | Browns +0.050 · Texans +0.013 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Result
After the final: score vs the closing line, Drive X-Ray and the graded official play, if there was one, appear here on this same page.
Teams
Houston Texans
- Houston Texans team stats
- Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (Nov 19)
- Houston Texans 44, Los Angeles Chargers 22 (Nov 8)
- New York Giants 27, Houston Texans 21 (Oct 25)
- Houston Texans 34, Jacksonville Jaguars 31 (Oct 18)
Cleveland Browns
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- Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (Nov 15)
- Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (Nov 15)
- Seattle Seahawks at Las Vegas Raiders (Nov 15)
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