Cleveland Browns vs New Orleans Saints Final — November 8, 2026
CLEStarting quarterbacksexpected startersNO
CLEOffense2026 regular season to dateNOCLEDefenseNOCLERecent formNOCLEHome and roadseason to dateNOInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
CLERest & travelNOCLEKey injuriesNOAbout these numbers
Quarterback = expected starter for this game. Season to date; ranks among 35 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game); a starter below that minimum is placed among them. Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Starters (and the primary passer), plus regular contributors playing at least 40% of team snaps, on the game's official injury report captured before kickoff.
The pre-game matchup
The Browns (5-3) visited the Saints (2-5) at Caesars Superdome on Sunday, November 8 at 1:00 PM ET in Week 9.
The Browns have the 25th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 14th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Saints have the 22nd-ranked offense and the 27th-ranked defense. When the Browns have the ball, a 25th-ranked offense (−0.079 EPA per play) meets a 27th-ranked defense (+0.075 allowed); when the Saints have it, a 22nd-ranked offense (−0.037) meets a 14th-ranked defense (−0.017 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Browns offense is at 42.5% (16th) and the Saints offense at 41.7% (23rd). Through the air, the Browns average −0.017 EPA per dropback (25th) against a Saints pass defense ranked 23rd; the Saints average +0.027 (20th) against a Browns pass defense ranked 10th. The Browns score 17.4 points per game (29th) and allow 21.6 (13th); the Saints score 23.1 (14th) and allow 27.7 (29th).
Over the last five games, the Browns rank 26th on offense and 12th on defense by EPA per play; the Saints rank 25th and 27th.
Tyler Shough has a 46.3% success rate (16th of 35 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Shedeur Sanders' 0.0% (36th). Per dropback, Shough is at +0.030 EPA to Sanders' −1.489, with 13 touchdown passes and 6 interceptions to Sanders' 0 and 0.
The Browns are 5-3 and 5-3 against the spread; their last game was a 27-6 loss to the Steelers. The Saints are 2-5 and 3-4 against the spread; their last game was a 16-10 loss to the Steelers. The Saints are coming off a bye.
The Saints closed as 4.5-point favorites at home against the Browns. The spread opened at Saints -2.5. The total closed at 43.5, up from 42.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Browns +193, Saints -235) prices the Browns at 33% and the Saints at 67%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Cleveland Browns 22, New Orleans Saints 23
New Orleans Saints won by 1.
- Against the closing spread (New Orleans Saints -4.5): Cleveland Browns covered.
- Combined score 45 vs the closing total of 43.5: Over.
- New Orleans Saints closed at -235 on the moneyline (a 67% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 11 points toward New Orleans Saints.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Cleveland Browns 33%, New Orleans Saints 67%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q2 4:12 — Cleveland Browns ball, 4th & 5 at CLE 2013-C.Bojorquez punts 57 yards to NO 23, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 19-B.Brown to NO 20 for -3 yards (98-A.Huntington). FUMBLES (98-A.Huntington), RECOVERED by CLE-31-D.McMillon at NO 19. ** Injury Update: CLE-34-M.BurtCleveland Browns 29% → 46% (+16 pts) · Drive 7 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 5:33 — Cleveland Browns ball, 1st & 10 at CLE 36(Shotgun) 2-S.Sanders pass deep right to 1-K.Concepcion for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-K.Elliss].Cleveland Browns 33% → 63% (+30 pts) · Drive 18 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 1:17 — New Orleans Saints ball, 1st & 10 at CLE 43(No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep left to 12-C.Olave pushed ob at CLE 10 for 33 yards (7-T.Campbell; 28-E.McNeil-Warren).New Orleans Saints 33% → 60% (+28 pts) · Drive 21 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 0:41 — Cleveland Browns ball, 3rd & 6 at CLE 30(Shotgun) 2-S.Sanders pass deep left to 3-J.Jeudy to NO 40 for 30 yards (22-M.Emerson) [99-C.Young].Cleveland Browns 17% → 34% (+18 pts) · Drive 22 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 0:12 — Cleveland Browns ball, 4th & 3 at NO 3325-A.Szmyt 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.Cleveland Browns 26% → 46% (+20 pts) · Drive 22 in Drive X-Ray
New Orleans Saints won after falling as low as 15% (Q4 2:54).
Game DNA
| Browns | Points added | Saints |
|---|---|---|
| -11.6 | Passingdropbacks | -8.4 |
| -6.0 | Rushingdesigned runs | -0.6 |
| +19.5 | Explosive plays7 plays · 7 plays | +10.1 |
| +5.8 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 1 giveaways | -3.9 |
| +1.0 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -0.5 |
| +1.3 | Penalties10 for 58 yds · 4 for 25 yds | +3.5 |
| -9.8 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 0 of 2 · 2 of 5 | -0.1 |
| +0.3 | All plays | +0.1 |
The biggest single gap: turnovers, worth about 9.8 points to Cleveland Browns. The final margin was 1.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
New Orleans Saints closed as the market favourite at 67% and won.
The line moved toward New Orleans Saints before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Browns +2.5 (-109)
Browns +4.5 (-111)
Saints -143 56%
Saints -235 67%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Matchup
Players to watch
Denzel Boston has 409 receiving yards for the Browns (25th of 76 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 21.5%. Quinshon Judkins has 342 rushing yards on 101 carries (23rd of 42 qualified running backs). Chris Olave has 636 receiving yards for the Saints (5th of 76 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 27.0%. Kendre Miller has 159 rushing yards on 57 carries (40th of 42 qualified running backs).
- Carries101
- Rush yards34223rd
- Yards per carry3.436th
- EPA per rush−0.22136th
- Rush success rate29.7%39th
- Targets / catches53 / 26
- Receiving yards40925th
- Target share21.5%31st
- Yards per target7.742nd
- EPA per target+0.09156th
- Targets / catches51 / 35
- Receiving yards4114th
- Target share20.6%6th
- Yards per target8.114th
- EPA per target+0.26515th
- Carries57
- Rush yards15940th
- Yards per carry2.840th
- EPA per rush−0.28838th
- Rush success rate24.6%42nd
- Targets / catches71 / 49
- Receiving yards6365th
- Target share27.0%12th
- Yards per target9.026th
- EPA per target+0.52811th
- Targets / catches37 / 26
- Receiving yards25519th
- Target share14.1%24th
- Yards per target6.921st
- EPA per target+0.20322nd
Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Browns | Saints |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateBrowns offense vs Saints defense | 44.2%13th | 48.7%32nd |
| Early-down success rateSaints offense vs Browns defense | 42.3%11th | 38.3%27th |
| Early-down EPA per playBrowns offense vs Saints defense | −0.03321st | +0.09728th |
| Early-down EPA per playSaints offense vs Browns defense | +0.02416th | −0.09427th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateBrowns offense vs Saints defense | 32.4%30th | 50.0%30th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateSaints offense vs Browns defense | 39.1%12th | 43.4%8th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playBrowns offense vs Saints defense | −0.17126th | +0.01818th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playSaints offense vs Browns defense | −0.09811th | −0.09520th |
| Red-zone TD rateBrowns offense vs Saints defense | 47.4%30th | 56.7%13th |
| Red-zone TD rateSaints offense vs Browns defense | 52.2%11th | 73.9%2nd |
| Red-zone success rateBrowns offense vs Saints defense | 38.2%25th | 40.5%12th |
| Red-zone success rateSaints offense vs Browns defense | 41.6%13th | 50.7%5th |
On early downs the Browns succeed on 44.2% of plays (13th) against a Saints defense that allows 48.7% (32nd); on 3rd down they convert 32.4% (30th) against a defense allowing 50.0% (30th). On early downs the Saints succeed on 38.3% of plays (27th) against a Browns defense that allows 42.3% (11th); on 3rd down they convert 43.4% (8th) against a defense allowing 39.1% (12th). The Browns score touchdowns on 47.4% of red-zone trips (30th). The Saints score touchdowns on 73.9% of red-zone trips (2nd).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Browns | Saints |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Todd Monken | Kellen Moore |
| Offensive coordinator | Travis Switzer | Doug Nussmeier |
| Defensive coordinator | Mike Rutenberg | Brandon Staley |
| Offense tendencies | Browns | Saints |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.1% | −0.3%9th-highest | −0.9%11th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.4% | 64.9%4th-highest | 64.8%5th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 54.9% | 59.3%8th-highest | 59.4%7th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 61.4% | 78.0%1st-highest | 69.1%7th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.5% | 4.4%22nd-highest | 14.5%3rd-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 33.0 | 31.627th-slowest | 30.131st-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.4% | 14.1%21st | 13.2%26th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.6% | 9.8%8th | 7.1%26th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.5% | 6.6%28th | 5.7%31st |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.2% | 10.6%32nd | 5.1%10th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.92% | 2.09%18th | 2.62%27th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 61.4 | 59.623rd-most | 65.15th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 63.3% | 4 of 5 | 9 of 11 |
| Defense | Browns | Saints |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.2% | 7.2%10th | 6.9%11th |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.4% | 14.4%13th | 17.6%22nd |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.6% | 8.5%13th | 10.5%28th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.5% | 15.9%32nd | 10.7%25th |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.92% | 2.02%13th | 1.59%23rd |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.6% | 16.9%9th | 13.2%26th |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.6% | 21.0%32nd | 14.2%10th |
The Browns run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−0.3% pass rate over expected, 9th-highest), while the Saints sit at −0.9% (11th-highest). In neutral situations the Browns take 31.6 seconds between snaps and the Saints 30.1, so the Saints play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Browns have gone for it 4 of 5 times and the Saints 9 of 11.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 3 times since 2015: the Browns won 0 and the Saints 3. In the most recent meeting (November 17, 2024), the Saints won 35-14; the Browns averaged +0.030 EPA per play; the Saints averaged +0.311 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 2024 | Browns 14, Saints 35 Saints won | Browns -1 Saints covered | 44 over | Browns +0.030 · Saints +0.311 |
| Dec 24, 2022 | Saints 17, Browns 10 Saints won | Browns -3 Saints covered | 32 under | Browns −0.254 · Saints −0.115 |
| Sep 16, 2018 | Browns 18, Saints 21 Saints won | Saints -10 Browns covered | 51 under | Browns −0.097 · Saints −0.163 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Teams
Cleveland Browns
- Cleveland Browns team stats
- Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns (Nov 15)
- Cleveland Browns 6, Pittsburgh Steelers 27 (Nov 1)
- Cleveland Browns 27, Tennessee Titans 24 (Oct 25)
- Baltimore Ravens 10, Cleveland Browns 13 (Oct 18)
New Orleans Saints
More NFL games on November 8, 2026
- Cincinnati Bengals 34, Atlanta Falcons 17 (Nov 8)
- Denver Broncos 26, Carolina Panthers 21 (Nov 8)
- Dallas Cowboys 27, Indianapolis Colts 23 (Nov 8)
- New York Jets 12, Kansas City Chiefs 35 (Nov 8)
- Detroit Lions 19, Miami Dolphins 9 (Nov 8)
- New York Giants 19, Philadelphia Eagles 11 (Nov 8)
- Los Angeles Rams 20, Washington Commanders 13 (Nov 8)
- Houston Texans 44, Los Angeles Chargers 22 (Nov 8)
- Green Bay Packers 45, New England Patriots 27 (Nov 8)
- Las Vegas Raiders 17, San Francisco 49ers 38 (Nov 8)
- Arizona Cardinals 3, Seattle Seahawks 17 (Nov 8)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24, Chicago Bears 27 (Nov 8)
Dig deeper
Follow the market every day
See every game's current line on the odds board, or check our fully tracked results.
Odds boardTracked results