Pittsburgh Steelers vs New Orleans Saints Final — October 25, 2026
PITStarting quarterbacksexpected startersNO
PITOffense2026 regular season to dateNOPITDefenseNOPITRecent formNOPITHome and roadseason to dateNOInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
PITRest & travelNOPITKey injuriesNOAbout these numbers
Quarterback = expected starter for this game. Season to date; ranks among 34 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game); a starter below that minimum is placed among them. Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Starters (and the primary passer), plus regular contributors playing at least 40% of team snaps, on the game's official injury report captured before kickoff.
The pre-game matchup
The Steelers (4-2) visited the Saints (2-4) at Stade de France, a neutral site, on Sunday, October 25 at 9:30 AM ET in Week 7.
The Steelers have the 23rd-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 5th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Saints have the 20th-ranked offense and the 25th-ranked defense. When the Steelers have the ball, a 23rd-ranked offense (−0.076 EPA per play) meets a 25th-ranked defense (+0.067 allowed); when the Saints have it, a 20th-ranked offense (−0.050) meets a 5th-ranked defense (−0.060 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Steelers offense is at 40.8% (23rd) and the Saints offense at 41.6% (20th). Through the air, the Steelers average −0.135 EPA per dropback (27th) against a Saints pass defense ranked 23rd; the Saints average −0.016 (22nd) against a Steelers pass defense ranked 7th. The Steelers score 22.8 points per game (17th) and allow 21.3 (12th); the Saints score 25.3 (10th) and allow 29.7 (31st).
Over the last five games, the Steelers rank 17th on offense and 16th on defense by EPA per play; the Saints rank 22nd and 27th.
Tyler Shough has a 45.1% success rate (18th of 34 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Aaron Rodgers' 40.9% (27th). Per dropback, Shough is at −0.012 EPA to Rodgers' −0.121, with 12 touchdown passes and 5 interceptions to Rodgers' 12 and 5.
The Steelers are 4-2 and 4-2 against the spread; their last game was a 26-19 win over the Buccaneers. The Saints are 2-4 and 3-3 against the spread; their last game was a 34-27 win over the Giants.
The Steelers closed as 3-point favorites over the Saints at the neutral site. The spread opened at Steelers -2. The total closed at 43.5, down from 44.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Steelers -165, Saints +138) prices the Steelers at 60% and the Saints at 40%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Pittsburgh Steelers 16, New Orleans Saints 10
Pittsburgh Steelers won by 6.
- Against the closing spread (New Orleans Saints +3): Pittsburgh Steelers covered.
- Combined score 26 vs the closing total of 43.5: Under.
- Pittsburgh Steelers closed at -165 on the moneyline (a 60% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 5 points toward Pittsburgh Steelers.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Pittsburgh Steelers 60%, New Orleans Saints 40%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q2 8:34 — Pittsburgh Steelers ball, 3rd & 14 at PIT 45(Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 4-D.Metcalf to NO 4 for 51 yards (7-J.Sanker).Pittsburgh Steelers 57% → 71% (+14 pts) · Drive 5 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 1:48 — New Orleans Saints ball, 4th & 1 at PIT 1(Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 14-D.Vele for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.New Orleans Saints 32% → 41% (+9 pts) · Drive 6 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 12:53 — New Orleans Saints ball, 3rd & 11 at NO 40(Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep right to 14-D.Vele to PIT 36 for 24 yards (25-D.Elliott).New Orleans Saints 31% → 41% (+10 pts) · Drive 8 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 7:43 — New Orleans Saints ball, 2nd & 7 at PIT 10(Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right intended for 12-C.Olave INTERCEPTED by 41-P.Wilson at PIT 11. 41-P.Wilson to PIT 29 for 18 yards (18-B.Lance).Pittsburgh Steelers 54% → 72% (+18 pts) · Drive 8 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 9:32 — New Orleans Saints ball, 4th & 7 at PIT 3410-D.Carlson 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-17-R.Wright.Pittsburgh Steelers 80% → 89% (+9 pts) · Drive 10 in Drive X-Ray
Game DNA
| Steelers | Points added | Saints |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | Passingdropbacks | +7.8 |
| +0.3 | Rushingdesigned runs | -5.2 |
| +15.1 | Explosive plays7 plays · 2 plays | +6.3 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 1 giveaways | -6.2 |
| +1.7 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -3.0 |
| +0.2 | Penalties6 for 57 yds · 5 for 39 yds | -1.8 |
| -3.4 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 1 of 4 · 1 of 3 | +0.7 |
| +9.4 | All plays | -1.3 |
The biggest single gap: passing, worth about 12.2 points to New Orleans Saints. The final margin was 6.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Pittsburgh Steelers closed as the market favourite at 60% and won.
The line moved toward Pittsburgh Steelers before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Steelers -2 (-112)
Steelers -3 (-111)
Saints +112 45%
Saints +138 40%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
DK Metcalf has 318 receiving yards for the Steelers (26th of 79 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 23.9%. Jaylen Warren has 460 rushing yards on 84 carries (7th of 40 qualified running backs). Chris Olave has 580 receiving yards for the Saints (2nd of 79 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 27.1%. Kendre Miller has 153 rushing yards on 49 carries (38th of 40 qualified running backs).
- Carries84
- Rush yards4607th
- Yards per carry5.53rd
- EPA per rush+0.0618th
- Rush success rate44.0%12th
- Targets / catches52 / 30
- Receiving yards31826th
- Target share23.9%20th
- Yards per target6.166th
- EPA per target+0.03162nd
- Targets / catches29 / 21
- Receiving yards18019th
- Target share13.3%26th
- Yards per target6.226th
- EPA per target+0.17625th
- Carries49
- Rush yards15338th
- Yards per carry3.136th
- EPA per rush−0.24534th
- Rush success rate26.5%39th
- Targets / catches61 / 43
- Receiving yards5802nd
- Target share27.1%11th
- Yards per target9.523rd
- EPA per target+0.64211th
- Targets / catches34 / 25
- Receiving yards24812th
- Target share15.1%21st
- Yards per target7.317th
- EPA per target+0.21819th
Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Steelers | Saints |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateSteelers offense vs Saints defense | 42.1%18th | 50.0%32nd |
| Early-down success rateSaints offense vs Steelers defense | 42.6%14th | 38.8%26th |
| Early-down EPA per playSteelers offense vs Saints defense | −0.01216th | +0.11731st |
| Early-down EPA per playSaints offense vs Steelers defense | −0.0538th | −0.07825th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateSteelers offense vs Saints defense | 33.3%28th | 47.1%29th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateSaints offense vs Steelers defense | 32.5%6th | 42.5%10th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playSteelers offense vs Saints defense | −0.31631st | −0.1109th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playSaints offense vs Steelers defense | −0.2676th | −0.18827th |
| Red-zone TD rateSteelers offense vs Saints defense | 53.3%19th | 61.5%18th |
| Red-zone TD rateSaints offense vs Steelers defense | 50.0%5th | 80.0%3rd |
| Red-zone success rateSteelers offense vs Saints defense | 38.6%22nd | 41.9%15th |
| Red-zone success rateSaints offense vs Steelers defense | 36.7%6th | 56.9%1st |
On early downs the Steelers succeed on 42.1% of plays (18th) against a Saints defense that allows 50.0% (32nd); on 3rd down they convert 33.3% (28th) against a defense allowing 47.1% (29th). On early downs the Saints succeed on 38.8% of plays (26th) against a Steelers defense that allows 42.6% (14th); on 3rd down they convert 42.5% (10th) against a defense allowing 32.5% (6th). The Steelers score touchdowns on 53.3% of red-zone trips (19th). The Saints score touchdowns on 80.0% of red-zone trips (3rd).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Steelers | Saints |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Mike McCarthy | Kellen Moore |
| Offensive coordinator | Brian Angelichio | Doug Nussmeier |
| Defensive coordinator | Patrick Graham | Brandon Staley |
| Offense tendencies | Steelers | Saints |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −1.6% | 4.3%3rd-highest | −1.8%16th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 61.4% | 68.3%2nd-highest | 63.8%10th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 55.8% | 63.4%2nd-highest | 58.5%8th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 61.5% | 66.8%13th-highest | 67.2%10th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.4% | 8.8%8th-highest | 14.5%2nd-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 32.9 | 34.09th-slowest | 30.231st-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.2% | 12.7%26th | 14.5%20th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.5% | 7.2%25th | 7.4%24th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.3% | 11.0%9th | 6.3%27th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.1% | 7.4%24th | 5.1%12th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.92% | 1.87%18th | 2.74%25th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 61.5 | 62.215th-most | 66.54th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 60.4% | 3 of 6 | 7 of 9 |
| Defense | Steelers | Saints |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.1% | 7.0%12th | 6.6%14th |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.2% | 13.7%10th | 18.3%27th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.5% | 10.4%27th | 10.1%24th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.3% | 9.4%18th | 10.7%23rd |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.92% | 2.46%10th | 1.85%18th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.9% | 15.0%20th | 13.5%23rd |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.9% | 16.9%23rd | 14.5%12th |
The Steelers pass more often than down, distance and score would suggest (4.3% pass rate over expected, 3rd-highest), while the Saints sit at −1.8% (16th-highest). In neutral situations the Steelers take 34.0 seconds between snaps and the Saints 30.2, so the Saints play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Steelers have gone for it 3 of 6 times and the Saints 7 of 9.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 2 times since 2015: the Steelers won 1 and the Saints 1. In the most recent meeting (November 13, 2022), the Steelers won 20-10; the Saints averaged −0.291 EPA per play; the Steelers averaged +0.017 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 2022 | Saints 10, Steelers 20 Steelers won | Steelers -1 Steelers covered | 39.5 under | Saints −0.291 · Steelers +0.017 |
| Dec 23, 2018 | Steelers 28, Saints 31 Saints won | Saints -6.5 Steelers covered | 53 over | Saints +0.078 · Steelers +0.080 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Teams
Pittsburgh Steelers
- Pittsburgh Steelers team stats
- Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (Nov 1)
- Pittsburgh Steelers 26, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19 (Oct 18)
- Indianapolis Colts 22, Pittsburgh Steelers 34 (Oct 11)
- Pittsburgh Steelers 24, Cleveland Browns 27 (Oct 1)
New Orleans Saints
- New Orleans Saints team stats
- New Orleans Saints 34, New York Giants 27 (Oct 18)
- Minnesota Vikings 23, New Orleans Saints 13 (Oct 11)
- Atlanta Falcons 45, New Orleans Saints 24 (Oct 5)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NFL games on October 25, 2026
- San Francisco 49ers 20, Atlanta Falcons 29 (Oct 25)
- Cincinnati Bengals 35, Baltimore Ravens 13 (Oct 25)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 43, Carolina Panthers 13 (Oct 25)
- New York Giants 27, Houston Texans 21 (Oct 25)
- Indianapolis Colts 10, Minnesota Vikings 16 (Oct 25)
- Miami Dolphins 28, New York Jets 25 (Oct 25)
- Cleveland Browns 27, Tennessee Titans 24 (Oct 25)
- Denver Broncos 30, Arizona Cardinals 16 (Oct 25)
- Green Bay Packers 17, Detroit Lions 20 (Oct 25)
- Los Angeles Rams 35, Las Vegas Raiders 21 (Oct 25)
- Kansas City Chiefs 3, Seattle Seahawks 20 (Oct 25)
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