Los Angeles Chargers vs Baltimore Ravens Preview & Odds — November 16, 2026
LACStarting quarterbacksexpected startersBAL
LACOffense2026 regular season to dateBALLACDefenseBALLACRecent formBALLACHome and roadseason to dateBALRest & travelrest and travel
LACRest & travelBALAbout these numbers
Quarterback = expected starter for this game. Season to date; ranks among 34 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game); a starter below that minimum is placed among them. Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Matchup preview
The Chargers (0-8) visit the Ravens (4-5) at M&T Bank Stadium on Monday, November 16 at 8:15 PM ET in Week 10.
The Chargers have the 32nd-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 17th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Ravens have the 18th-ranked offense and the 19th-ranked defense. When the Chargers have the ball, a 32nd-ranked offense (−0.245 EPA per play) meets a 19th-ranked defense (+0.017 allowed); when the Ravens have it, a 18th-ranked offense (−0.015) meets a 17th-ranked defense (+0.003 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Chargers offense is at 35.0% (32nd) and the Ravens offense at 44.1% (12th). Through the air, the Chargers average −0.243 EPA per dropback (32nd) against a Ravens pass defense ranked 21st; the Ravens average +0.034 (18th) against a Chargers pass defense ranked 18th. The Chargers score 15.1 points per game (32nd) and allow 27.4 (28th); the Ravens score 21.0 (22nd) and allow 26.2 (25th).
Over the last five games, the Chargers rank 32nd on offense and 15th on defense by EPA per play; the Ravens rank 29th and 21st.
Jacoby Brissett has a 45.7% success rate (17th of 34 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Justin Herbert's 36.0% (34th). Per dropback, Brissett is at −0.057 EPA to Herbert's −0.249, with 10 touchdown passes and 7 interceptions to Herbert's 6 and 11.
The Chargers are 0-8 and 0-7-1 against the spread; their last game was a 44-22 loss to the Texans. The Ravens are 4-5 and 2-7 against the spread; their last game was a 33-10 loss to the Jaguars.
The Ravens are 4.5-point favorites at home against the Chargers. The spread opened at Ravens -3.5. The total is 39, up from 38.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the moneyline (Chargers +180, Ravens -225) prices the Chargers at 34% and the Ravens at 66%.
Built from public team and player data; ranks are league-wide and update daily until kickoff.
Market
Odds and line movement
Chargers +3.5 (-115)
Chargers +4.5 (-110)
Ravens -165 60%
Ravens -225 66%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. The Now column updates from our odds board. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Best available prices on Nov 14
- Chargers +4.5-108Novig
- Ravens -4.5+104Novig
- Over 39-107BetRivers
- Under 39-110BetMGM
- Chargers+194Novig
- Ravens-199Novig
Matchup
Players to watch
Tre Harris has 262 receiving yards for the Chargers (62nd of 76 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 17.7%. Omarion Hampton has 369 rushing yards on 102 carries (25th of 41 qualified running backs). Zay Flowers has 614 receiving yards for the Ravens (14th of 76 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 30.3%. Derrick Henry has 689 rushing yards on 175 carries (7th of 41 qualified running backs).
- Carries102
- Rush yards36925th
- Yards per carry3.632nd
- EPA per rush−0.29240th
- Rush success rate33.3%34th
- Targets / catches35 / 21
- Receiving yards26262nd
- Target share17.7%48th
- Yards per target7.550th
- EPA per target+0.16853rd
- Targets / catches20 / 13
- Receiving yards129
- Target share11.8%
- Yards per target6.5
- EPA per target−0.597
- Carries175
- Rush yards6897th
- Yards per carry3.926th
- EPA per rush−0.11528th
- Rush success rate38.9%24th
- Targets / catches64 / 43
- Receiving yards61414th
- Target share30.3%6th
- Yards per target9.615th
- EPA per target+0.19546th
- Targets / catches43 / 31
- Receiving yards23725th
- Target share17.9%11th
- Yards per target5.535th
- EPA per target−0.01529th
Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Chargers | Ravens |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateChargers offense vs Ravens defense | 34.4%32nd | 44.1%21st |
| Early-down success rateRavens offense vs Chargers defense | 44.7%23rd | 45.0%11th |
| Early-down EPA per playChargers offense vs Ravens defense | −0.25032nd | −0.02610th |
| Early-down EPA per playRavens offense vs Chargers defense | +0.04424th | +0.03612th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateChargers offense vs Ravens defense | 34.2%30th | 39.0%13th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateRavens offense vs Chargers defense | 35.1%9th | 38.5%15th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playChargers offense vs Ravens defense | −0.18127th | +0.08225th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playRavens offense vs Chargers defense | −0.1678th | −0.07615th |
| Red-zone TD rateChargers offense vs Ravens defense | 50.0%26th | 65.6%20th |
| Red-zone TD rateRavens offense vs Chargers defense | 53.1%11th | 59.3%15th |
| Red-zone success rateChargers offense vs Ravens defense | 32.2%31st | 49.0%25th |
| Red-zone success rateRavens offense vs Chargers defense | 40.2%12th | 44.6%13th |
On early downs the Chargers succeed on 34.4% of plays (32nd) against a Ravens defense that allows 44.1% (21st); on 3rd down they convert 34.2% (30th) against a defense allowing 39.0% (13th). On early downs the Ravens succeed on 45.0% of plays (11th) against a Chargers defense that allows 44.7% (23rd); on 3rd down they convert 38.5% (15th) against a defense allowing 35.1% (9th). The Chargers score touchdowns on 50.0% of red-zone trips (26th). The Ravens score touchdowns on 59.3% of red-zone trips (15th).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Chargers | Ravens |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Jim Harbaugh | Jesse Minter |
| Offensive coordinator | Mike McDaniel | Declan Doyle |
| Defensive coordinator | Chris O'Leary | Anthony Weaver |
| Offense tendencies | Chargers | Ravens |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.2% | −10.3%30th-highest | −6.9%28th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.3% | 59.6%19th-highest | 54.9%29th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 54.8% | 51.1%25th-highest | 48.9%30th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 61.7% | 67.3%9th-highest | 60.3%19th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.5% | 4.8%18th-highest | 3.2%28th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 32.9 | 33.512th-slowest | 35.11st-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.4% | 13.6%24th | 17.7%9th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.6% | 7.2%25th | 7.5%23rd |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.4% | 8.5%18th | 10.3%11th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.3% | 10.5%31st | 7.9%24th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.98% | 3.62%32nd | 1.89%16th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 61.3 | 62.011th-most | 58.424th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 63.6% | 2 of 6 | 7 of 9 |
| Defense | Chargers | Ravens |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.3% | 5.1%25th | 5.2%22nd |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.4% | 16.5%22nd | 16.2%16th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.6% | 9.5%21st | 8.7%16th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.4% | 10.5%23rd | 6.3%4th |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.98% | 2.33%9th | 1.63%22nd |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.7% | 16.5%12th | 16.0%16th |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.7% | 19.3%31st | 17.6%26th |
The Chargers run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−10.3% pass rate over expected, 30th-highest), while the Ravens sit at −6.9% (28th-highest). In neutral situations the Chargers take 33.5 seconds between snaps and the Ravens 35.1, so the Chargers play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Chargers have gone for it 2 of 6 times and the Ravens 7 of 9.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 6 times since 2015: the Chargers won 1 and the Ravens 5. In the most recent meeting (November 25, 2024), the Ravens won 30-23; the Ravens averaged +0.325 EPA per play; the Chargers averaged +0.008 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 25, 2024 | Ravens 30, Chargers 23 Ravens won | Ravens -3 Ravens covered | 51 over | Ravens +0.325 · Chargers +0.008 |
| Nov 26, 2023 | Ravens 20, Chargers 10 Ravens won | Ravens -3 Ravens covered | 49 under | Ravens +0.027 · Chargers −0.302 |
| Oct 17, 2021 | Chargers 6, Ravens 34 Ravens won | Ravens -3 Ravens covered | 50.5 under | Ravens +0.058 · Chargers −0.328 |
| Jan 6, 2019 playoffs | Chargers 23, Ravens 17 Chargers won | Ravens -3 Chargers covered | 43 under | Ravens −0.269 · Chargers −0.151 |
| Dec 22, 2018 | Ravens 22, Chargers 10 Ravens won | Chargers -4 Ravens covered | 42.5 under | Ravens −0.108 · Chargers −0.400 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Result
After the final: score vs the closing line, Drive X-Ray and the graded official play, if there was one, appear here on this same page.
Teams
Los Angeles Chargers
- Los Angeles Chargers team stats
- Houston Texans 44, Los Angeles Chargers 22 (Nov 8)
- Los Angeles Chargers 9, Los Angeles Rams 24 (Nov 1)
- Los Angeles Chargers 6, Kansas City Chiefs 22 (Oct 18)
Baltimore Ravens
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