Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs Final — October 18, 2026
LACStarting quarterbacksexpected startersKC
LACOffense2026 regular season to dateKCLACDefenseKCLACRecent formKCLACHome and roadseason to dateKCInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
LACRest & travelKCLACKey injuriesKCAbout these numbers
Quarterback = expected starter for this game. Season to date; ranks among 34 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game); a starter below that minimum is placed among them. Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Starters (and the primary passer), plus regular contributors playing at least 40% of team snaps, on the game's official injury report captured before kickoff.
The pre-game matchup
The Chargers (0-5) visited the Chiefs (4-0) at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday, October 18 at 4:25 PM ET in Week 6.
The Chargers have the 32nd-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 6th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have the 4th-ranked offense and the 8th-ranked defense. When the Chargers have the ball, a 32nd-ranked offense (−0.207 EPA per play) meets a 8th-ranked defense (−0.050 allowed); when the Chiefs have it, a 4th-ranked offense (+0.172) meets a 6th-ranked defense (−0.057 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Chargers offense is at 37.8% (29th) and the Chiefs offense at 48.6% (5th). Through the air, the Chargers average −0.214 EPA per dropback (32nd) against a Chiefs pass defense ranked 11th; the Chiefs average +0.205 (7th) against a Chargers pass defense ranked 9th. The Chargers score 16.8 points per game (30th) and allow 25.8 (22nd); the Chiefs score 29.5 (5th) and allow 19.2 (7th).
Patrick Mahomes has a 49.3% success rate (11th of 34 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Justin Herbert's 38.5% (32nd). Per dropback, Mahomes is at +0.213 EPA to Herbert's −0.212, with 9 touchdown passes and 2 interceptions to Herbert's 5 and 7.
The Chargers are 0-5 and 0-4-1 against the spread; their last game was a 23-17 loss to the Broncos. The Chiefs are 4-0 and 2-2 against the spread; their last game was a 30-27 win over the Raiders. The Chiefs are coming off a bye.
The Chiefs closed as 7.5-point favorites at home against the Chargers. The spread closed where it opened. The total closed at 41.5, down from 43.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Chargers +320, Chiefs -422) prices the Chargers at 23% and the Chiefs at 77%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Los Angeles Chargers 6, Kansas City Chiefs 22
Kansas City Chiefs won by 16.
- Against the closing spread (Kansas City Chiefs -7.5): Kansas City Chiefs covered.
- Combined score 28 vs the closing total of 41.5: Under.
- Kansas City Chiefs closed at -422 on the moneyline (a 77% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
The market barely moved from open to close.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Los Angeles Chargers 23%, Kansas City Chiefs 77%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q2 10:59 — Los Angeles Chargers ball, 2nd & 3 at KC 4210-J.Herbert pass short right intended for 84-K.Lambert-Smith INTERCEPTED by 43-J.Cochrane [97-A.Gillotte] at KC 35. 43-J.Cochrane pushed ob at LAC 17 for 48 yards (40-H.Rucci). Penalty on LAC-73-A.Harkey, IllegaKansas City Chiefs 80% → 91% (+10 pts) · Drive 6 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 8:37 — Kansas City Chiefs ball, 3rd & 2 at LAC 2(Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right intended for 85-A.Armstrong INTERCEPTED by 20-C.Hart [93-T.Tart] at LAC -9. Touchback.Los Angeles Chargers 9% → 16% (+7 pts) · Drive 7 in Drive X-Ray
Game DNA
| Chargers | Points added | Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
| -5.3 | Passingdropbacks | -2.7 |
| -3.7 | Rushingdesigned runs | -2.3 |
| +11.1 | Explosive plays5 plays · 16 plays | +19.9 |
| -7.9 | Turnovers3 giveaways · 1 giveaways | -5.8 |
| +0.7 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -1.5 |
| -0.8 | Penalties7 for 59 yds · 8 for 89 yds | -1.3 |
| -8.9 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 0 of 3 · 1 of 4 | -4.6 |
| -14.9 | All plays | +1.6 |
The biggest single gap: explosive plays, worth about 8.9 points to Kansas City Chiefs. The final margin was 16.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Kansas City Chiefs closed as the market favourite at 77% and won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Chargers +7.5 (-109)
Chargers +7.5 (-115)
Chiefs -400 77%
Chiefs -422 77%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
Tre Harris has 225 receiving yards for the Chargers (38th of 85 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 18.1%. Omarion Hampton has 271 rushing yards on 73 carries (20th of 41 qualified running backs). Xavier Worthy has 133 receiving yards for the Chiefs (70th of 85 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 18.6%. Kenneth Walker III has 537 rushing yards on 87 carries (2nd of 41 qualified running backs).
- Carries73
- Rush yards27120th
- Yards per carry3.727th
- EPA per rush−0.25737th
- Rush success rate37.0%26th
- Targets / catches25 / 15
- Receiving yards22538th
- Target share18.1%45th
- Yards per target9.032nd
- EPA per target+0.21549th
- Targets / catches16 / 9
- Receiving yards8632nd
- Target share11.6%29th
- Yards per target5.433rd
- EPA per target−0.48436th
- Carries87
- Rush yards5372nd
- Yards per carry6.21st
- EPA per rush+0.1121st
- Rush success rate47.1%6th
- Targets / catches22 / 14
- Receiving yards13370th
- Target share18.6%43rd
- Yards per target6.071st
- EPA per target−0.15278th
- Targets / catches22 / 16
- Receiving yards2468th
- Target share18.6%10th
- Yards per target11.22nd
- EPA per target+0.7443rd
Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Chargers | Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateChargers offense vs Chiefs defense | 37.8%29th | 40.4%7th |
| Early-down success rateChiefs offense vs Chargers defense | 42.7%14th | 48.4%4th |
| Early-down EPA per playChargers offense vs Chiefs defense | −0.17732nd | −0.00314th |
| Early-down EPA per playChiefs offense vs Chargers defense | −0.03010th | +0.08710th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateChargers offense vs Chiefs defense | 34.8%26th | 37.0%11th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateChiefs offense vs Chargers defense | 32.3%5th | 44.9%9th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playChargers offense vs Chiefs defense | −0.19429th | −0.08815th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playChiefs offense vs Chargers defense | −0.2666th | +0.3312nd |
| Red-zone TD rateChargers offense vs Chiefs defense | 66.7%9th | 50.0%4th |
| Red-zone TD rateChiefs offense vs Chargers defense | 55.0%11th | 63.2%15th |
| Red-zone success rateChargers offense vs Chiefs defense | 43.6%14th | 38.5%11th |
| Red-zone success rateChiefs offense vs Chargers defense | 37.3%8th | 36.7%26th |
On early downs the Chargers succeed on 37.8% of plays (29th) against a Chiefs defense that allows 40.4% (7th); on 3rd down they convert 34.8% (26th) against a defense allowing 37.0% (11th). On early downs the Chiefs succeed on 48.4% of plays (4th) against a Chargers defense that allows 42.7% (14th); on 3rd down they convert 44.9% (9th) against a defense allowing 32.3% (5th). The Chargers score touchdowns on 66.7% of red-zone trips (9th). The Chiefs score touchdowns on 63.2% of red-zone trips (15th).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Chargers | Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Jim Harbaugh | Andy Reid |
| Offensive coordinator | Mike McDaniel | Eric Bieniemy |
| Defensive coordinator | Chris O'Leary | Steve Spagnuolo |
| Offense tendencies | Chargers | Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.0% | −11.6%32nd-highest | 2.3%7th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.9% | 57.3%24th-highest | 57.4%23rd-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 55.3% | 49.4%28th-highest | 53.6%20th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 60.8% | 66.1%12th-highest | 59.3%17th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.4% | 5.2%19th-highest | 0.4%31st-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 32.9 | 34.18th-slowest | 31.826th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.2% | 13.2%24th | 16.9%12th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.8% | 7.5%25th | 9.6%12th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.5% | 10.1%15th | 14.2%3rd |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.0% | 9.7%31st | 4.2%6th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.94% | 3.91%32nd | 0.80%4th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 61.2 | 61.415th-most | 62.013th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 62.4% | 1 of 3 | 6 of 6 |
| Defense | Chargers | Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.0% | 7.0%11th | 2.5%32nd |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.2% | 13.0%8th | 11.8%5th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.8% | 9.6%23rd | 7.2%6th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.5% | 8.3%10th | 9.7%20th |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.94% | 2.66%7th | 2.38%10th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.8% | 19.7%4th | 14.0%22nd |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.8% | 21.0%32nd | 14.8%12th |
The Chargers run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−11.6% pass rate over expected, 32nd-highest), while the Chiefs sit at 2.3% (7th-highest). In neutral situations the Chargers take 34.1 seconds between snaps and the Chiefs 31.8, so the Chiefs play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Chargers have gone for it 1 of 3 times and the Chiefs 6 of 6.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 22 times since 2015: the Chargers won 5 and the Chiefs 17. In the most recent meeting (December 14, 2025), the Chargers won 16-13; the Chiefs averaged −0.106 EPA per play; the Chargers averaged −0.045 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2025 | Chargers 16, Chiefs 13 Chargers won | Chiefs -5.5 Chargers covered | 41.5 under | Chiefs −0.106 · Chargers −0.045 |
| Sep 5, 2025 | Chiefs 21, Chargers 27 Chargers won | Chiefs -3 Chargers covered | 47.5 over | Chiefs +0.215 · Chargers +0.320 |
| Dec 8, 2024 | Chargers 17, Chiefs 19 Chiefs won | Chiefs -5 Chargers covered | 43.5 under | Chiefs +0.017 · Chargers +0.087 |
| Sep 29, 2024 | Chiefs 17, Chargers 10 Chiefs won | Chiefs -7.5 Chargers covered | 41.5 under | Chiefs −0.088 · Chargers −0.214 |
| Jan 7, 2024 | Chiefs 13, Chargers 12 Chiefs won | Chargers -3.5 Chiefs covered | 35 under | Chiefs −0.144 · Chargers −0.233 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Teams
Los Angeles Chargers
- Los Angeles Chargers team stats
- Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams (Nov 1)
- Denver Broncos 23, Los Angeles Chargers 17 (Oct 11)
- Los Angeles Chargers 23, Seattle Seahawks 30 (Oct 4)
- Los Angeles Chargers 16, Buffalo Bills 24 (Sep 27)
Kansas City Chiefs
- Kansas City Chiefs team stats
- Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (Nov 1)
- Kansas City Chiefs 3, Seattle Seahawks 20 (Oct 25)
- Kansas City Chiefs 30, Las Vegas Raiders 27 (Oct 4)
- Kansas City Chiefs 24, Miami Dolphins 10 (Sep 27)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NFL games on October 18, 2026
- Houston Texans 34, Jacksonville Jaguars 31 (Oct 18)
- Chicago Bears 31, Atlanta Falcons 23 (Oct 18)
- Baltimore Ravens 10, Cleveland Browns 13 (Oct 18)
- Tennessee Titans 26, Indianapolis Colts 20 (Oct 18)
- New York Jets 19, New England Patriots 26 (Oct 18)
- New Orleans Saints 34, New York Giants 27 (Oct 18)
- Carolina Panthers 25, Philadelphia Eagles 14 (Oct 18)
- Pittsburgh Steelers 26, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19 (Oct 18)
- Arizona Cardinals 18, Los Angeles Rams 16 (Oct 18)
- Buffalo Bills 33, Las Vegas Raiders 30 (Oct 18)
- Dallas Cowboys 13, Green Bay Packers 23 (Oct 18)
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