Jacksonville Jaguars vs Baltimore Ravens Final — November 5, 2026
JAXStarting quarterbacksexpected startersBAL
JAXOffense2026 regular season to dateBALJAXDefenseBALJAXRecent formBALJAXHome and roadseason to dateBALInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
JAXRest & travelBALJAXKey injuriesBALAbout these numbers
Quarterback = expected starter for this game. Season to date; ranks among 35 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game); a starter below that minimum is placed among them. Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Starters (and the primary passer), plus regular contributors playing at least 40% of team snaps, on the game's official injury report captured before kickoff.
The pre-game matchup
The Jaguars (5-2) visited the Ravens (4-4) at M&T Bank Stadium on Thursday, November 5 at 8:15 PM ET in Week 9.
The Jaguars have the 3rd-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 4th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Ravens have the 14th-ranked offense and the 18th-ranked defense. When the Jaguars have the ball, a 3rd-ranked offense (+0.161 EPA per play) meets a 18th-ranked defense (+0.013 allowed); when the Ravens have it, a 14th-ranked offense (+0.023) meets a 4th-ranked defense (−0.099 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Jaguars offense is at 47.5% (7th) and the Ravens offense at 45.6% (12th). Through the air, the Jaguars average +0.266 EPA per dropback (3rd) against a Ravens pass defense ranked 17th; the Ravens average +0.095 (14th) against a Jaguars pass defense ranked 6th. The Jaguars score 28.0 points per game (5th) and allow 15.9 (2nd); the Ravens score 22.4 (19th) and allow 25.4 (22nd).
Over the last five games, the Jaguars rank 3rd on offense and 4th on defense by EPA per play; the Ravens rank 24th and 18th.
Trevor Lawrence has a 52.2% success rate (4th of 35 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Joe Fagnano's 30.8% (36th). Per dropback, Lawrence is at +0.283 EPA to Fagnano's −0.422, with 17 touchdown passes and 4 interceptions to Fagnano's 0 and 1. Joe Fagnano is in line to start in place of Tyler Huntley, who is listed as out on the injury report.
The Jaguars are 5-2 and 4-3 against the spread; their last game was a 42-7 win over the Colts. The Ravens are 4-4 and 2-6 against the spread; their last game was a 36-10 loss to the Bills. Both teams are on a short week.
The Jaguars closed as 9.5-point road favorites, with the Ravens getting the points at home. The spread opened at Jaguars -7. The total closed at 40.5, down from 43.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Jaguars -452, Ravens +350) prices the Jaguars at 79% and the Ravens at 21%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Jacksonville Jaguars 33, Baltimore Ravens 10
Jacksonville Jaguars won by 23.
- Against the closing spread (Baltimore Ravens +9.5): Jacksonville Jaguars covered.
- Combined score 43 vs the closing total of 40.5: Over.
- Jacksonville Jaguars closed at -452 on the moneyline (a 79% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 5 points toward Jacksonville Jaguars.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Jacksonville Jaguars 79%, Baltimore Ravens 21%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Game DNA
| Jaguars | Points added | Ravens |
|---|---|---|
| +1.9 | Passingdropbacks | -5.9 |
| -8.0 | Rushingdesigned runs | -8.3 |
| +12.3 | Explosive plays6 plays · 1 plays | +5.4 |
| -5.7 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 3 giveaways | -14.8 |
| +4.2 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +3.0 |
| +2.2 | Penalties4 for 24 yds · 7 for 46 yds | -1.7 |
| +2.2 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 2 of 4 · 0 of 0 | +0.0 |
| +9.2 | All plays | -22.3 |
The biggest single gap: turnovers, worth about 9.0 points to Jacksonville Jaguars. The final margin was 23.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Jacksonville Jaguars closed as the market favourite at 79% and won.
The line moved toward Jacksonville Jaguars before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Jaguars -7 (-115)
Jaguars -9.5 (-108)
Ravens +262 26%
Ravens +350 21%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Matchup
Players to watch
Parker Washington has 432 receiving yards for the Jaguars (22nd of 76 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 24.6%. Bhayshul Tuten has 492 rushing yards on 110 carries (15th of 42 qualified running backs). Zay Flowers has 608 receiving yards for the Ravens (8th of 76 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 29.7%. Derrick Henry has 632 rushing yards on 158 carries (7th of 42 qualified running backs).
- Carries110
- Rush yards49215th
- Yards per carry4.518th
- EPA per rush−0.00315th
- Rush success rate41.8%16th
- Targets / catches48 / 27
- Receiving yards43222nd
- Target share24.6%18th
- Yards per target9.024th
- EPA per target+0.45220th
- Targets / catches35 / 28
- Receiving yards33411th
- Target share17.9%14th
- Yards per target9.55th
- EPA per target+0.40510th
- Carries158
- Rush yards6327th
- Yards per carry4.024th
- EPA per rush−0.12127th
- Rush success rate38.6%24th
- Targets / catches58 / 40
- Receiving yards6088th
- Target share29.7%7th
- Yards per target10.510th
- EPA per target+0.43622nd
- Targets / catches41 / 29
- Receiving yards21824th
- Target share18.3%11th
- Yards per target5.335th
- EPA per target−0.06431st
Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Jaguars | Ravens |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateJaguars offense vs Ravens defense | 46.5%9th | 43.6%16th |
| Early-down success rateRavens offense vs Jaguars defense | 44.0%22nd | 46.6%8th |
| Early-down EPA per playJaguars offense vs Ravens defense | +0.1542nd | −0.04110th |
| Early-down EPA per playRavens offense vs Jaguars defense | −0.0675th | +0.06610th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateJaguars offense vs Ravens defense | 48.8%3rd | 39.6%15th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateRavens offense vs Jaguars defense | 35.4%9th | 40.0%14th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playJaguars offense vs Ravens defense | +0.2423rd | +0.10825th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playRavens offense vs Jaguars defense | −0.07212th | −0.00912th |
| Red-zone TD rateJaguars offense vs Ravens defense | 68.4%7th | 67.9%23rd |
| Red-zone TD rateRavens offense vs Jaguars defense | 40.9%3rd | 59.3%14th |
| Red-zone success rateJaguars offense vs Ravens defense | 50.7%4th | 48.3%24th |
| Red-zone success rateRavens offense vs Jaguars defense | 30.6%2nd | 44.6%12th |
On early downs the Jaguars succeed on 46.5% of plays (9th) against a Ravens defense that allows 43.6% (16th); on 3rd down they convert 48.8% (3rd) against a defense allowing 39.6% (15th). On early downs the Ravens succeed on 46.6% of plays (8th) against a Jaguars defense that allows 44.0% (22nd); on 3rd down they convert 40.0% (14th) against a defense allowing 35.4% (9th). The Jaguars score touchdowns on 68.4% of red-zone trips (7th). The Ravens score touchdowns on 59.3% of red-zone trips (14th).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Jaguars | Ravens |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Liam Coen | Jesse Minter |
| Offensive coordinator | Grant Udinski | Declan Doyle |
| Defensive coordinator | Anthony Campanile | Anthony Weaver |
| Offense tendencies | Jaguars | Ravens |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.2% | −4.8%26th-highest | −4.2%23rd-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.4% | 54.7%30th-highest | 56.8%27th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 54.9% | 51.6%24th-highest | 50.7%28th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 61.4% | 54.5%25th-highest | 57.0%23rd-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.5% | 3.2%29th-highest | 3.6%25th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 33.0 | 33.711th-slowest | 35.02nd-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.4% | 21.4%2nd | 19.1%4th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.6% | 11.9%2nd | 8.1%21st |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.5% | 10.3%10th | 11.4%9th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.2% | 5.8%15th | 8.2%26th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.92% | 1.23%8th | 1.69%14th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 61.4 | 58.126th-most | 59.024th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 63.3% | 2 of 6 | 6 of 7 |
| Defense | Jaguars | Ravens |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.2% | 5.6%22nd | 5.6%19th |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.4% | 17.6%24th | 15.5%18th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.6% | 8.2%12th | 8.8%16th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.5% | 7.9%8th | 7.3%4th |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.92% | 2.91%2nd | 1.61%22nd |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.6% | 16.7%12th | 17.0%7th |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.6% | 16.2%20th | 17.5%25th |
The Jaguars run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−4.8% pass rate over expected, 26th-highest), while the Ravens sit at −4.2% (23rd-highest). In neutral situations the Jaguars take 33.7 seconds between snaps and the Ravens 35.0, so the Jaguars play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Jaguars have gone for it 2 of 6 times and the Ravens 6 of 7.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 6 times since 2015: the Jaguars won 3 and the Ravens 3. In the most recent meeting (December 17, 2023), the Ravens won 23-7; the Ravens averaged +0.026 EPA per play; the Jaguars averaged −0.226 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 17, 2023 | Ravens 23, Jaguars 7 Ravens won | Ravens -4 Ravens covered | 42.5 under | Ravens +0.026 · Jaguars −0.226 |
| Nov 27, 2022 | Ravens 27, Jaguars 28 Jaguars won | Ravens -3.5 Jaguars covered | 43 over | Ravens +0.112 · Jaguars +0.048 |
| Dec 20, 2020 | Jaguars 14, Ravens 40 Ravens won | Ravens -13 Ravens covered | 49.5 over | Ravens +0.294 · Jaguars −0.032 |
| Sep 24, 2017 | Ravens 7, Jaguars 44 Jaguars won | Ravens -3 Jaguars covered | 38 over | Ravens −0.461 · Jaguars +0.276 |
| Sep 25, 2016 | Ravens 19, Jaguars 17 Ravens won | Ravens -1 Ravens covered | 45 under | Ravens −0.160 · Jaguars −0.260 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Teams
Jacksonville Jaguars
- Jacksonville Jaguars team stats
- Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (Nov 15)
- Indianapolis Colts 7, Jacksonville Jaguars 42 (Nov 1)
- Houston Texans 34, Jacksonville Jaguars 31 (Oct 18)
- Philadelphia Eagles 17, Jacksonville Jaguars 19 (Oct 11)
Baltimore Ravens
- Baltimore Ravens team stats
- Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens (Nov 16)
- Baltimore Ravens 10, Buffalo Bills 36 (Nov 1)
- Cincinnati Bengals 35, Baltimore Ravens 13 (Oct 25)
- Baltimore Ravens 10, Cleveland Browns 13 (Oct 18)
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