Houston Texans vs Los Angeles Chargers Final — November 8, 2026
HOUStarting quarterbacksexpected startersLAC
HOUOffense2026 regular season to dateLACHOUDefenseLACHOURecent formLACHOUHome and roadseason to dateLACInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
HOURest & travelLACHOUKey injuriesLACAbout these numbers
Quarterback = expected starter for this game. Season to date; ranks among 35 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game); a starter below that minimum is placed among them. Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Starters (and the primary passer), plus regular contributors playing at least 40% of team snaps, on the game's official injury report captured before kickoff.
The pre-game matchup
The Texans (2-5) visited the Chargers (0-7) at SoFi Stadium on Sunday, November 8 at 4:05 PM ET in Week 9.
The Texans have the 13th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 22nd-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Chargers have the 32nd-ranked offense and the 9th-ranked defense. When the Texans have the ball, a 13th-ranked offense (+0.027 EPA per play) meets a 9th-ranked defense (−0.040 allowed); when the Chargers have it, a 32nd-ranked offense (−0.256) meets a 22nd-ranked defense (+0.031 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Texans offense is at 42.6% (15th) and the Chargers offense at 34.8% (32nd). Through the air, the Texans average +0.130 EPA per dropback (12th) against a Chargers pass defense ranked 8th; the Chargers average −0.271 (32nd) against a Texans pass defense ranked 20th. The Texans score 23.6 points per game (12th) and allow 24.3 (18th); the Chargers score 14.1 (32nd) and allow 25.0 (20th).
Over the last five games, the Texans rank 7th on offense and 19th on defense by EPA per play; the Chargers rank 32nd and 8th.
C.J. Stroud has a 48.2% success rate (14th of 35 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Justin Herbert's 36.6% (35th). Per dropback, Stroud is at +0.140 EPA to Herbert's −0.270, with 11 touchdown passes and 1 interception to Herbert's 5 and 10.
The Texans are 2-5 and 2-5 against the spread; their last game was a 27-21 loss to the Giants. The Chargers are 0-7 and 0-6-1 against the spread; their last game was a 24-9 loss to the Rams. The Texans are coming off a bye.
The Texans closed as 5.5-point road favorites, with the Chargers getting the points at home. The spread opened at Texans -3.5. The total closed at 40.5, down from 42.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Texans -235, Chargers +192) prices the Texans at 67% and the Chargers at 33%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Houston Texans 44, Los Angeles Chargers 22
Houston Texans won by 22.
- Against the closing spread (Los Angeles Chargers +5.5): Houston Texans covered.
- Combined score 66 vs the closing total of 40.5: Over.
- Houston Texans closed at -235 on the moneyline (a 67% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 5 points toward Houston Texans.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Houston Texans 67%, Los Angeles Chargers 33%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 10:21 — Houston Texans ball, 3rd & 6 at LAC 17(Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep right to 19-X.Hutchinson for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Houston Texans 71% → 77% (+6 pts) · Drive 1 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 7:32 — Houston Texans ball, 1st & 10 at HOU 45(Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle intended for 14-K.Boutte INTERCEPTED by 0-D.Henley (58-M.Wax) at LAC 44. 0-D.Henley to HOU 38 for 18 yards (86-D.Schultz).Los Angeles Chargers 21% → 34% (+13 pts) · Drive 7 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 4:37 — Houston Texans ball, 2nd & 5 at HOU 37(Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep right to 1-T.Dell for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Houston Texans 69% → 82% (+12 pts) · Drive 9 in Drive X-Ray
Game DNA
| Texans | Points added | Chargers |
|---|---|---|
| -2.3 | Passingdropbacks | -15.9 |
| -3.3 | Rushingdesigned runs | -6.2 |
| +25.9 | Explosive plays12 plays · 7 plays | +16.5 |
| -6.0 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 2 giveaways | -6.1 |
| +4.4 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +5.0 |
| +0.2 | Penalties6 for 36 yds · 9 for 79 yds | -0.4 |
| +3.6 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 3 of 4 · 1 of 2 | -0.6 |
| +22.5 | All plays | -7.8 |
The biggest single gap: passing, worth about 13.6 points to Houston Texans. The final margin was 22.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Houston Texans closed as the market favourite at 67% and won.
The line moved toward Houston Texans before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Texans -3.5 (-110)
Texans -5.5 (-108)
Chargers +151 38%
Chargers +192 33%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Matchup
Players to watch
Nico Collins has 329 receiving yards for the Texans (36th of 76 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 22.4%. Woody Marks has 271 rushing yards on 77 carries (33rd of 42 qualified running backs). Tre Harris has 256 receiving yards for the Chargers (55th of 76 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 16.7%. Omarion Hampton has 309 rushing yards on 89 carries (28th of 42 qualified running backs).
- Carries77
- Rush yards27133rd
- Yards per carry3.534th
- EPA per rush−0.17633rd
- Rush success rate33.8%31st
- Targets / catches35 / 24
- Receiving yards32936th
- Target share22.4%26th
- Yards per target9.421st
- EPA per target+0.5747th
- Targets / catches43 / 33
- Receiving yards32213th
- Target share18.6%10th
- Yards per target7.518th
- EPA per target+0.22820th
- Carries89
- Rush yards30928th
- Yards per carry3.535th
- EPA per rush−0.29539th
- Rush success rate31.5%37th
- Targets / catches28 / 18
- Receiving yards25655th
- Target share16.7%52nd
- Yards per target9.122nd
- EPA per target+0.30037th
- Targets / catches26 / 17
- Receiving yards15533rd
- Target share12.7%28th
- Yards per target6.032nd
- EPA per target−0.33736th
Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Texans | Chargers |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateTexans offense vs Chargers defense | 42.7%17th | 45.5%27th |
| Early-down success rateChargers offense vs Texans defense | 40.3%5th | 34.2%32nd |
| Early-down EPA per playTexans offense vs Chargers defense | +0.0839th | +0.03621st |
| Early-down EPA per playChargers offense vs Texans defense | +0.03118th | −0.23432nd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateTexans offense vs Chargers defense | 37.5%23rd | 31.3%4th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateChargers offense vs Texans defense | 40.9%17th | 35.1%28th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playTexans offense vs Chargers defense | −0.06717th | −0.3554th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playChargers offense vs Texans defense | +0.06423rd | −0.22831st |
| Red-zone TD rateTexans offense vs Chargers defense | 57.7%18th | 51.9%10th |
| Red-zone TD rateChargers offense vs Texans defense | 68.4%25th | 50.0%27th |
| Red-zone success rateTexans offense vs Chargers defense | 39.4%21st | 40.3%11th |
| Red-zone success rateChargers offense vs Texans defense | 43.9%17th | 33.3%31st |
On early downs the Texans succeed on 42.7% of plays (17th) against a Chargers defense that allows 45.5% (27th); on 3rd down they convert 37.5% (23rd) against a defense allowing 31.3% (4th). On early downs the Chargers succeed on 34.2% of plays (32nd) against a Texans defense that allows 40.3% (5th); on 3rd down they convert 35.1% (28th) against a defense allowing 40.9% (17th). The Texans score touchdowns on 57.7% of red-zone trips (18th). The Chargers score touchdowns on 50.0% of red-zone trips (27th).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Texans | Chargers |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | DeMeco Ryans | Jim Harbaugh |
| Offensive coordinator | Nick Caley | Mike McDaniel |
| Defensive coordinator | Matt Burke | Chris O'Leary |
| Offense tendencies | Texans | Chargers |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.1% | −2.1%17th-highest | −9.7%30th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.4% | 63.3%10th-highest | 59.8%17th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 54.9% | 59.5%6th-highest | 51.7%23rd-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 61.4% | 66.0%10th-highest | 67.3%8th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.5% | 5.0%19th-highest | 5.1%17th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 33.0 | 33.116th-slowest | 33.613th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.4% | 18.6%7th | 13.7%22nd |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.6% | 10.7%5th | 7.3%25th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.5% | 7.1%24th | 8.2%20th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.2% | 5.6%12th | 9.0%29th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.92% | 0.71%2nd | 3.74%32nd |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 61.4 | 60.619th-most | 61.116th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 63.3% | 6 of 13 | 1 of 5 |
| Defense | Texans | Chargers |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.2% | 7.7%5th | 5.6%21st |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.4% | 20.6%32nd | 15.3%16th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.6% | 11.9%32nd | 8.9%17th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.5% | 8.4%11th | 10.3%21st |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.92% | 1.35%29th | 2.44%8th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.6% | 16.5%15th | 16.7%10th |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.6% | 13.1%6th | 19.1%31st |
The Texans run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−2.1% pass rate over expected, 17th-highest), while the Chargers sit at −9.7% (30th-highest). In neutral situations the Texans take 33.1 seconds between snaps and the Chargers 33.6, so the Texans play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Texans have gone for it 6 of 13 times and the Chargers 1 of 5.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 6 times since 2015: the Texans won 4 and the Chargers 2. In the most recent meeting (December 27, 2025), the Texans won 20-16; the Texans averaged −0.151 EPA per play; the Chargers averaged −0.215 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2025 | Texans 20, Chargers 16 Texans won | Chargers -1.5 Texans covered | 40.5 under | Texans −0.151 · Chargers −0.215 |
| Jan 11, 2025 playoffs | Chargers 12, Texans 32 Texans won | Chargers -3 Texans covered | 41.5 over | Texans −0.107 · Chargers −0.517 |
| Oct 2, 2022 | Chargers 34, Texans 24 Chargers won | Chargers -5.5 Chargers covered | 45 over | Texans −0.068 · Chargers +0.250 |
| Dec 26, 2021 | Chargers 29, Texans 41 Texans won | Chargers -13.5 Texans covered | 46 over | Texans +0.314 · Chargers +0.050 |
| Sep 22, 2019 | Texans 27, Chargers 20 Texans won | Chargers -3 Texans covered | 49 under | Texans +0.229 · Chargers +0.020 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Teams
Houston Texans
- Houston Texans team stats
- Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns (Nov 15)
- New York Giants 27, Houston Texans 21 (Oct 25)
- Houston Texans 34, Jacksonville Jaguars 31 (Oct 18)
- Houston Texans 26, Tennessee Titans 3 (Oct 11)
Los Angeles Chargers
- Los Angeles Chargers team stats
- Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens (Nov 16)
- Los Angeles Chargers 9, Los Angeles Rams 24 (Nov 1)
- Los Angeles Chargers 6, Kansas City Chiefs 22 (Oct 18)
- Denver Broncos 23, Los Angeles Chargers 17 (Oct 11)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NFL games on November 8, 2026
- Cincinnati Bengals 34, Atlanta Falcons 17 (Nov 8)
- Denver Broncos 26, Carolina Panthers 21 (Nov 8)
- Dallas Cowboys 27, Indianapolis Colts 23 (Nov 8)
- New York Jets 12, Kansas City Chiefs 35 (Nov 8)
- Detroit Lions 19, Miami Dolphins 9 (Nov 8)
- Cleveland Browns 22, New Orleans Saints 23 (Nov 8)
- New York Giants 19, Philadelphia Eagles 11 (Nov 8)
- Los Angeles Rams 20, Washington Commanders 13 (Nov 8)
- Green Bay Packers 45, New England Patriots 27 (Nov 8)
- Las Vegas Raiders 17, San Francisco 49ers 38 (Nov 8)
- Arizona Cardinals 3, Seattle Seahawks 17 (Nov 8)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24, Chicago Bears 27 (Nov 8)
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