Home › Game previews › NHL › October 2026 › Carolina Hurricanes at Philadelphia Flyers

NHL · October 11, 2026

Carolina Hurricanes vs Philadelphia Flyers Final — October 11, 2026

Carolina Hurricanes

4-1-1

Goalie Pyotr Kochetkov Confirmed

FINAL

Philadelphia Flyers

0-4-2

Goalie Joseph Woll Confirmed

Sunday, October 11 · 7:10 PM ET

CARStarting goaliesPHI

This season

Starts

.895

Sv%

.927

1.000

HDSv%

.882

+0.2

GSAx

+2.6

Last season

Starts

.899

Sv%

.899

.647

HDSv%

.824

−1.3

GSAx

−5.0

CAROffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)PHI

2nd3.61

GF/G

3.0520th

4th9.11

PP GF/60

5.5732nd

CARDefensePHI

4th2.93

GA/G

2.969th

13th7.23

PK GA/60

8.3123rd

CARTeamPHI

2nd68.9%

Pts%

59.8%10th

2nd56.4%

xGF%

51.0%11th

1st59.8%

CF%

47.7%26th

8th53.7%

HDCF%

53.7%9th

CAR5-on-5PHI

1st3.06

xGF/60

2.3623rd

7th2.37

xGA/60

2.274th

24th8.9%

Sh%

10.2%10th

26th89.5%

Sv%

90.5%15th

13th116.5

CF/60 (both)

107.531st

21st−0.08

GAx/G

−0.1523rd

19th−0.06

GSAx/G

−0.1023rd

17th10.5%

Sh%

10.6%14th

26th88.6%

Sv%

89.1%23rd

1st57.9%

xGF% (L20)

53.5%8th

CARSpecial teamsPHI

9th8.18

PP xG/60

8.326th

4th83.8

PP FF/60

78.414th

18th4.7

PP min/G

4.813th

3rd6.47

PK xGA/60

7.037th

13th4.6

PK min/G

4.921st

CARRecent formPHI

Lvs WSH 2-5W@ PHI 3-2W@ MTL 6-4Wvs VAN 7-2W@ CHI 5-2

Resultsoldest to newest

OTL@ NJD 2-3OTLvs CAR 2-3L@ TBL 1-4L@ OTT 1-2L@ BOS 1-5

Game by game

4-1-1

Record

0-4-2

4-1-0

Last 5

0-3-2

4-2

Over–under

2-4

CARHome and roadseason to datePHI

1-1-1

Home record

0-1-1

3-0-0

Road record

0-3-1

2-1

Home O/U

1-1

2-1

Road O/U

1-3

Top third of the leagueMiddle thirdBottom thirdBar = league rank (full = 1st)

Injuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel

CARRest & travelPHI

1 dayback-to-back

Days of rest

1 dayback-to-back

667 mi1,073 km

Travel to the game

Home

+1 hclock change vs home

Time-zone change

Home

CARKey injuriesPHI

Jordan Staal COutSeth Jarvis CIR

Players out or limited

Travis Konecny RWIRCam York DDay-to-day

About these numbers

Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.

Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.

2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.

2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.

Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.

Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.

Key players only. Injury report as of October 11, 6:40 p.m. ET.

The pre-game matchup

The Hurricanes (4-1-1) visited the Flyers (0-4-2) on Sunday, October 11 at 7:10 PM ET.

Last season (2025-26), the Hurricanes scored 3.61 goals per game (2nd of 32) and allowed 2.93 (4th). The Flyers scored 3.05 goals per game (20th of 32) and allowed 2.96 (9th). The Hurricanes earned 68.9% of available standings points (2nd) and the Flyers 59.8% (10th).

Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Hurricanes 56.4% (2nd), Flyers 51.0% (11th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Hurricanes 59.8% (1st), Flyers 47.7% (26th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Hurricanes 53.7% (8th), Flyers 53.7% (9th). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.

The total closed 5.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Hurricanes -225, Flyers +185) prices the Hurricanes at 66% and the Flyers at 34%.

Written from the numbers available before kickoff.

Result

Final score and result vs the closing line

Carolina Hurricanes 4, Philadelphia Flyers 1

Carolina Hurricanes won by 3.

Against the closing spread (Philadelphia Flyers +1.5): Carolina Hurricanes covered.
Combined score 5 vs the closing total of 5.5: Under.
Carolina Hurricanes closed at -225 on the moneyline (a 66% no-vig market-implied chance).

Actual result

Final

Carolina Hurricanes 4
Philadelphia Flyers 1

Decided

In regulation

Carolina Hurricanes won

Lead changes

Before the game: market and G&W

66%Market at the close34%

Carolina HurricanesPhiladelphia Flyers

62%Market at the open38%

From open to close the market moved 5 points toward Carolina Hurricanes.

The G&W pregame win probability for this game is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.

Win probability

Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Carolina Hurricanes 66%, Philadelphia Flyers 34%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.

Biggest swings

2nd 10:16 — Carolina Hurricanes goal (1-0)Carolina Hurricanes 62% → 81% (+19 pts)
2nd 15:26 — Philadelphia Flyers goal (2-1)Philadelphia Flyers 7% → 18% (+12 pts)
2nd 16:54 — Carolina Hurricanes goal (3-1)Carolina Hurricanes 82% → 94% (+12 pts)

Analytics members also see this chart starting from the G&W pregame win probability. See plans

Chance Quality Result

76%CAR

Share of G&W replays won

24%PHI

3.4

Expected goals

1.6

Final score

Based on the quality of chances each team created, Carolina Hurricanes won 76% of G&W replays (Philadelphia Flyers 24%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.

The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.

Game DNA

The Chance Quality Result above favoured Carolina Hurricanes. Here is where that came from.

Hurricanes	Goals	Flyers
2.8	5-on-5 chancesexpected goals	1.5
0.3	Power-play chancesexpected goals	0.1
0.3	Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed	0.0
3.4	Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result	1.6
0.6	Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above	0.2
+0.6	Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots	-0.7
+0.7	Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Pyotr Kochetkov 18/19 · Joseph Woll 26/30	-0.6

Bar left: Hurricanes gainedBar right: Flyers gained

How the margin was built, from Carolina Hurricanes's side:

Chances +1.7Finishing & goaltending +1.3Carolina Hurricanes by 3

The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.

Line review

Carolina Hurricanes closed as the market favourite at 66% and won.

The line moved toward Carolina Hurricanes before puck drop, and they won.

How the G&W pregame number compared with the close, and whether the line moved toward it, is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market

Closing line and line movement

Puck lineno move

OpenFlyers +1.5 (-175)
Hurricanes -1.5 (+141)

CloseFlyers +1.5 (-147)
Hurricanes -1.5 (+116)

Totalno move

Open5.5 (o -125 / u +103)

Close5.5 (o -120 / u +100)

Moneyline

OpenHurricanes -180 62%
Flyers +150 38%

CloseHurricanes -225 66%
Flyers +185 34%

Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Members

G&W Line

G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics

Projected score

Spread

Total

Win %

Unlock every game with Analytics — $44.44/mo See today’s free game →

Matchup

Head-to-head

The teams have met 28 times since 2018-19: the Hurricanes won 22 and the Flyers 6.

Date	Score	Line	Total
Oct 3, 2026	Hurricanes 3, Flyers 2 OT Hurricanes won	Hurricanes -139 favorite won	5.5 under
Apr 13, 2026	Hurricanes 2, Flyers 3 SO Flyers won
Dec 14, 2025	Flyers 2, Hurricanes 3 SO Hurricanes won	Hurricanes -250 favorite won	5.5 under
Dec 13, 2025	Hurricanes 4, Flyers 3 SO Hurricanes won	Hurricanes -180 favorite won	6 over
Oct 11, 2025	Flyers 3, Hurricanes 4 OT Hurricanes won	Hurricanes -300 favorite won	5.5 over

Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.

Teams