Seattle Kraken vs Washington Capitals Final — October 11, 2026
SEAStarting goaliesWSH
SEAOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)WSHSEADefenseWSHSEATeamWSHSEA5-on-5WSHSEASpecial teamsWSHSEARecent formWSHSEAHome and roadseason to dateWSHInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
SEARest & travelWSHSEAKey injuriesWSHAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
No key players listed.
Key players only. Injury report as of October 11, 3:40 p.m. ET.
The pre-game matchup
The Kraken (3-2-0) visited the Capitals (3-1-0) on Sunday, October 11 at 5:10 PM ET.
Last season (2025-26), the Kraken scored 2.76 goals per game (28th of 32) and allowed 3.21 (23rd). The Capitals scored 3.21 goals per game (15th of 32) and allowed 2.98 (10th). The Kraken earned 48.2% of available standings points (27th) and the Capitals 57.9% (12th).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Kraken 45.4% (30th), Capitals 50.0% (17th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Kraken 45.4% (31st), Capitals 49.4% (15th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Kraken 46.1% (25th), Capitals 46.9% (22nd). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.
The total closed 6.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Kraken +170, Capitals -210) prices the Kraken at 35% and the Capitals at 65%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Seattle Kraken 5, Washington Capitals 3
Seattle Kraken won by 2.
- Against the closing spread (Washington Capitals -1.5): Seattle Kraken covered.
- Combined score 8 vs the closing total of 6.5: Over.
- Seattle Kraken closed at +170 on the moneyline (a 35% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
Washington Capitals 3
Before the game: market and G&W
The market barely moved from open to close.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Seattle Kraken 36%, Washington Capitals 64%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 2nd 13:24 — Seattle Kraken goal (3-2)Seattle Kraken 40% → 63% (+23 pts)
- 3rd 0:46 — Washington Capitals goal (3-3)Washington Capitals 32% → 59% (+27 pts)
- 3rd 14:33 — Seattle Kraken goal (4-3)Seattle Kraken 44% → 84% (+40 pts)
Seattle Kraken won after falling as low as 22% (1st 19:49).
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, Washington Capitals won 60% of G&W replays (Seattle Kraken 40%). The chances each team created were close to even.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above had the chances close to even. Here is where each side gained and lost.
| Kraken | Goals | Capitals |
|---|---|---|
| 2.3 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 2.9 |
| 0.3 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 0.3 |
| 0.0 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.1 |
| 2.6 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 3.3 |
| 0.0 | Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result | 0.4 |
| 0.7 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 0.8 |
| +2.4 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | -0.7 |
| +0.7 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Joey Daccord 33/36 · Logan Thompson 22/27 | -2.4 |
How the margin was built, from Seattle Kraken's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
Line review
Washington Capitals closed as the market favourite at 65% and lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Kraken +1.5 (-130)
Kraken +1.5 (-148)
Capitals -207 65%
Capitals -210 65%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 10 times since 2018-19: the Kraken won 4 and the Capitals 6.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2026 | Capitals 1, Kraken 5 Kraken won | Capitals -130 underdog won | 6 push |
| Oct 21, 2025 | Kraken 1, Capitals 4 Capitals won | Capitals -280 favorite won | 6 under |
| Mar 9, 2025 | Kraken 2, Capitals 4 Capitals won | Capitals -250 favorite won | 6 push |
| Jan 23, 2025 | Capitals 3, Kraken 0 Capitals won | Capitals -135 favorite won | 5.5 under |
| Mar 14, 2024 | Capitals 2, Kraken 1 Capitals won | Kraken -182 underdog won | 5.5 under |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
Seattle Kraken
- Seattle Kraken team stats
- Toronto Maple Leafs at Seattle Kraken (Oct 28)
- Minnesota Wild 5, Seattle Kraken 1 (Oct 24)
- Utah Mammoth 3, Seattle Kraken 5 (Oct 22)
- Detroit Red Wings 3, Seattle Kraken 4 (Oct 20)
Washington Capitals
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