Ottawa Senators vs New Jersey Devils Final — October 12, 2026
OTTStarting goaliesNJ
OTTOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)NJOTTDefenseNJOTTTeamNJOTT5-on-5NJOTTSpecial teamsNJOTTRecent formNJOTTHome and roadseason to dateNJInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
OTTRest & travelNJOTTKey injuriesNJAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Key players only. Injury report as of October 12, 10:10 a.m. ET.
The pre-game matchup
The Senators (4-1-0) visited the Devils (2-2-0) on Monday, October 12 at 7:10 PM ET.
Last season (2025-26), the Senators scored 3.39 goals per game (9th of 32) and allowed 3.00 (11th). The Devils scored 2.80 goals per game (27th of 32) and allowed 3.10 (17th). The Senators earned 60.4% of available standings points (9th) and the Devils 53.0% (21st).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Senators 54.8% (3rd), Devils 49.7% (18th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Senators 52.9% (5th), Devils 51.4% (10th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Senators 56.0% (4th), Devils 48.9% (18th). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.
The total closed 5.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Senators +100, Devils -120) prices the Senators at 48% and the Devils at 52%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Ottawa Senators 4, New Jersey Devils 1
Ottawa Senators won by 3.
- Against the closing spread (New Jersey Devils -1.5): Ottawa Senators covered.
- Combined score 5 vs the closing total of 5.5: Under.
- Ottawa Senators closed at +100 on the moneyline (a 48% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
New Jersey Devils 1
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 2 points toward Ottawa Senators.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Ottawa Senators 48%, New Jersey Devils 52%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 1st 10:01 — New Jersey Devils penaltyOttawa Senators 48% → 54% (+6 pts)
- 2nd 0:09 — Ottawa Senators goal (1-0)Ottawa Senators 48% → 66% (+18 pts)
- 2nd 8:40 — Ottawa Senators goal (2-0)Ottawa Senators 72% → 86% (+14 pts)
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, New Jersey Devils won 66% of G&W replays (Ottawa Senators 34%). The result went the other way from the chances each team created.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured New Jersey Devils. Here is where that came from.
| Senators | Goals | Devils |
|---|---|---|
| 1.3 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 2.4 |
| 0.5 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 0.2 |
| 0.0 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.2 |
| 1.8 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 2.8 |
| 0.0 | Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result | 0.5 |
| 0.1 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 0.8 |
| +1.1 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | -2.3 |
| +2.3 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Linus Ullmark 29/30 · Nico Daws 16/19 | -1.1 |
| 1 | Empty-net goals | 0 |
How the margin was built, from Ottawa Senators's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
Line review
New Jersey Devils closed as the market favourite at 52% and lost.
The line moved toward Ottawa Senators before puck drop, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Senators +1.5 (-225)
Senators +1.5 (-275)
Devils -130 54%
Devils -120 52%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 21 times since 2018-19: the Senators won 9 and the Devils 12.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2026 | Senators 3, Devils 4 OT Devils won | ||
| Jan 31, 2026 | Devils 1, Senators 4 Senators won | Senators -165 favorite won | 5.5 under |
| Dec 9, 2025 | Devils 4, Senators 3 Devils won | Senators -145 underdog won | 5.5 over |
| Mar 22, 2025 | Senators 3, Devils 2 Senators won | Devils -125 underdog won | 5.5 under |
| Jan 19, 2025 | Senators 2, Devils 1 Senators won | Devils -190 underdog won | 5.5 under |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
Ottawa Senators
- Ottawa Senators team stats
- Ottawa Senators 1, Vegas Golden Knights 4 (Oct 27)
- New York Rangers 4, Ottawa Senators 7 (Oct 24)
- San Jose Sharks 6, Ottawa Senators 2 (Oct 22)
New Jersey Devils
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