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NHL · October 12, 2026

Florida Panthers vs Buffalo Sabres Final — October 12, 2026

Florida Panthers

2-1-2

Goalie Jacob Markstrom Confirmed

FINAL

Buffalo Sabres

2-3-0

Goalie Colten Ellis Confirmed

Monday, October 12 · 1:10 PM ET

FLAStarting goaliesBUF

This season

Starts

.917

Sv%

.880

.833

HDSv%

.714

+2.2

GSAx

−0.1

Last season

Starts

.883

Sv%

.903

.828

HDSv%

.797

−17.1

GSAx

+0.8

FLAOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)BUF

18th3.06

GF/G

3.515th

18th7.11

PP GF/60

6.9320th

FLADefenseBUF

28th3.37

GA/G

2.947th

10th7.07

PK GA/60

6.174th

FLATeamBUF

25th51.2%

Pts%

66.5%4th

16th50.2%

xGF%

50.5%14th

9th51.7%

CF%

49.3%16th

20th48.3%

HDCF%

51.7%13th

FLA5-on-5BUF

15th2.56

xGF/60

2.6111th

17th2.54

xGA/60

2.5520th

15th9.6%

Sh%

10.6%5th

28th89.3%

Sv%

91.4%8th

20th114.6

CF/60 (both)

116.015th

27th−0.21

GAx/G

+0.244th

28th−0.26

GSAx/G

+0.256th

19th10.2%

Sh%

11.2%7th

27th88.5%

Sv%

90.7%3rd

27th46.3%

xGF% (L20)

53.4%9th

FLASpecial teamsBUF

8th8.22

PP xG/60

7.0826th

5th83.7

PP FF/60

76.420th

3rd5.3

PP min/G

5.07th

5th6.54

PK xGA/60

7.5416th

31st5.4

PK min/G

4.614th

FLARecent formBUF

W@ CAR 1-0OTL@ SJS 3-4OTL@ ANA 2-3W@ LAK 2-1Lvs MIN 1-4

Resultsoldest to newest

L@ CBJ 3-6Wvs CHI 4-3Wvs MIN 3-2Lvs DAL 0-4Lvs UTA 1-4

Game by game

2-1-2

Record

2-3-0

2-1-2

Last 5

2-3-0

1-4

Over–under

—

FLAHome and roadseason to dateBUF

0-1-0

Home record

2-2-0

2-0-2

Road record

0-1-0

0-1

Home O/U

—

1-3

Road O/U

—

Top third of the leagueMiddle thirdBottom thirdBar = league rank (full = 1st)

Injuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel

FLARest & travelBUF

2 days

Days of rest

2 days

1,158 mi1,863 km

Travel to the game

Home

FLAKey injuriesBUF

Aleksander Barkov CIR

Players out or limited

Conor Timmins DIRJason Zucker LWIR

About these numbers

Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.

Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.

2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.

2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.

Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.

Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.

Key players only. Injury report as of October 12, 10:10 a.m. ET.

The pre-game matchup

The Panthers (2-1-2) visited the Sabres (2-3-0) on Monday, October 12 at 1:10 PM ET.

Last season (2025-26), the Panthers scored 3.06 goals per game (18th of 32) and allowed 3.37 (28th). The Sabres scored 3.51 goals per game (5th of 32) and allowed 2.94 (7th). The Panthers earned 51.2% of available standings points (25th) and the Sabres 66.5% (4th).

Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Panthers 50.2% (16th), Sabres 50.5% (14th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Panthers 51.7% (9th), Sabres 49.3% (16th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Panthers 48.3% (20th), Sabres 51.7% (13th). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.

The total closed at 5.5, down from 6.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Panthers -105, Sabres -115) prices the Panthers at 49% and the Sabres at 51%.

Written from the numbers available before kickoff.

Result

Final score and result vs the closing line

Florida Panthers 3, Buffalo Sabres 5

Buffalo Sabres won by 2.

Against the closing spread (Buffalo Sabres -1.5): Buffalo Sabres covered.
Combined score 8 vs the closing total of 5.5: Over.
Buffalo Sabres closed at -115 on the moneyline (a 51% no-vig market-implied chance).

Actual result

Final

Florida Panthers 3
Buffalo Sabres 5

Decided

In regulation

Buffalo Sabres won

Lead changes

Before the game: market and G&W

49%Market at the close51%

Florida PanthersBuffalo Sabres

51%Market at the open49%

From open to close the market moved 2 points toward Buffalo Sabres.

The G&W pregame win probability for this game is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.

Win probability

Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Florida Panthers 49%, Buffalo Sabres 51%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.

Biggest swings

2nd 11:25 — Buffalo Sabres goal (2-3)Buffalo Sabres 51% → 72% (+21 pts)
2nd 13:41 — Florida Panthers goal (3-3)Florida Panthers 29% → 51% (+22 pts)
3rd 7:15 — Buffalo Sabres goal (3-4)Buffalo Sabres 53% → 82% (+29 pts)

Analytics members also see this chart starting from the G&W pregame win probability. See plans

Chance Quality Result

43%FLA

Share of G&W replays won

57%BUF

3.2

Expected goals

3.8

Final score

Based on the quality of chances each team created, Buffalo Sabres won 57% of G&W replays (Florida Panthers 43%). The chances each team created were close to even.

The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.

Game DNA

The Chance Quality Result above had the chances close to even. Here is where each side gained and lost.

Panthers	Goals	Sabres
1.2	5-on-5 chancesexpected goals	2.6
1.9	Power-play chancesexpected goals	1.2
0.1	Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed	0.0
3.2	Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result	3.8
0.1	Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result	0.0
0.6	Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above	0.3
-0.3	Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots	+1.2
-1.2	Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Akira Schmid 18/21, Jacob Markstrom 9/11 · Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen 13/14, Colten Ellis 7/9	+0.3

Bar left: Panthers gainedBar right: Sabres gained

How the margin was built, from Buffalo Sabres's side:

Chances +0.5Finishing & goaltending +1.6Buffalo Sabres by 2

The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.

Line review

Buffalo Sabres closed as the market favourite at 51% and won.

The line moved toward Buffalo Sabres before puck drop, and they won.

How the G&W pregame number compared with the close, and whether the line moved toward it, is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market

Closing line and line movement

Puck linefavorite flipped

OpenSabres +1.5 (-250)
Panthers -1.5 (+200)

CloseSabres -1.5 (+212)
Panthers +1.5 (-281)

Totaldown 1

Open6.5 (o +102 / u -124)

Close5.5 (o -129 / u +105)

Moneyline

OpenPanthers -113 51%
Sabres -105 49%

ClosePanthers -105 49%
Sabres -115 51%

Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Members

G&W Line

G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics

Projected score

Spread

Total

Win %

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Matchup

Head-to-head

The teams have met 26 times since 2018-19: the Panthers won 17 and the Sabres 9.

Date	Score	Line	Total
Feb 27, 2026	Sabres 3, Panthers 2 Sabres won	Panthers -115 underdog won	6.5 under
Feb 2, 2026	Sabres 5, Panthers 3 Sabres won	Panthers -115 underdog won	6.5 over
Jan 12, 2026	Panthers 4, Sabres 3 Panthers won	Sabres -120 underdog won	6 over
Oct 18, 2025	Panthers 0, Sabres 3 Sabres won	Panthers -155 underdog won	5.5 under
Apr 12, 2025	Sabres 2, Panthers 3 SO Panthers won	Panthers -170 favorite won	5.5 under

Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.

Teams